Russian passenger plane crashes in the Sinai

[T.Lex]

No survivors.

Sinai plane crash: No survivors on Russian airliner KGL9268 - BBC News

The Airbus A-321 had just left the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, bound for the Russian city of St Petersburg.
Wreckage was found in the Hasana area and bodies removed, along with the plane's "black box". An official described a "tragic scene" with bodies of victims still strapped to seats.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared Sunday a day of mourning.
He has ordered an official investigation into the crash, and for rescue teams to be sent to the crash site.
Egyptian officials said 214 of the passengers were Russian and three Ukrainian.

 

[SEIndSAM]

No survivors.

Sinai plane crash: No survivors on Russian airliner KGL9268 - BBC News

Sad news for the families involved. And it was a rather modern Airbus, not a crappy Russian build airliner from the Soviet era.

 

[printcraft]

That sucks. Helpless to do anything but be pinned to the seat in a death spiral.

 

[mrjarrell]

Looks like IS is trying to claim responsibility for the crash. I'm with the Russians on this one. I don't think they had anything to do with it.

The Latest: IS Says It Brought Down Plane; Russia Scoffs - ABC News

 

[spec4]

A radio news report said they had engine problems prior to takeoff. That's confusing. Why takeoff if there is an engine problem? Need more info.

 

[indykid]

A radio news report said they had engine problems prior to takeoff. That's confusing. Why takeoff if there is an engine problem? Need more info.

Not seeing the report, prior to takeoff could mean during the takeoff run down the runway, they experienced an engine problem. The pilot might have figured there was not enough runway left to safely stop so elected to continue the takeoff in hopes of making one large circle to return to the airport. Very probable a lose-lose choice.

Updated, just read that the pilot reported technical problems after takeoff and at cruising altitude. He then requested an emergency landing. Evidently the aircraft didn't cooperate.

 

[LockStocksAndBarrel]

Retaliation for the Malaysian Airlines shoot down in Ukraine?

 

[Bennettjh]

So sad. Terrible news.

 

[T.Lex]

The airline, which is somewhat comparable to a regional service that does holiday charters, is blaming an "external influence."

Sinai plane crash: 'External influence' caused crash - BBC News

A senior airline official said: "The only reasonable explanation is that it was [due to] external influence."

Keep in mind, there are lots of ways to bring down a plane.

 

[T.Lex]

I thought this was an interesting graphic, from this article (I believe this is a radar plot, not from the flight data recorder):
Sinai plane crash: Four theories - BBC News

Now, I'm an aviation hobbyist, but it the rapid upward trajectory for a full minute at the 4:12 mark.

It went up ~4k ft in about a minute, maintaining near-constant relative air speed. Then it dropped out of the sky. It almost looks like a stall. If that's the case, it is either a SIGNIFICANT softward/auto-pilot problem, or an intentional act.

Any real pilots/INGO aviationists out there care to comment?

ETA:
FlightRadar24 blog entry with data, but no analysis.
http://www.flightradar24.com/blog/crash-of-metrojet-flight-7k9268/

 

[T.Lex]

From that Flightradar24 site, you can download a csv of the radar data. To my amateur eyes, it actually looks consistent with an explosion that blew half the plane upward, and the other half more or less stayed the same.

The spike in the altitude is somewhat inaccurate. At almost the exact same moment, there is also a return at more or less the "correct" altitude. Also, and this might be purely coincidental, it happened at almost exactly 4:13 Zulu time.

Notice the bolded portion - at almost the exact same timestamp (milliseconds apart, I believe), 2 different altitudes/speeds:

Time (Zulu)	Alt (ft)	Grd. Spd.	Heading	Vert. Speed
04:12:56Z.474	30675	408	336	576
04:12:57Z.942	30750	408	336	576
04:12:58Z.444	31100	408	335	-320
04:13:00Z.502	33500	404	335	-3584
04:13:00Z.616	29750	347	333	8000
04:13:00Z.258	30975	398	333	-5760
04:13:00Z.062	30975	398	333	-5760
04:13:03Z.544	30650	296	332	-5696
04:13:02Z.636	33275	342	335	-3904
04:13:08Z.018	30825	246	351	4544
04:13:11Z.964	29925	306	325	-6080
04:13:11Z.950	29925	306	325	-6080
04:13:12Z.414	29925	184	350	-4352
04:13:13Z.424	29925	169	357	-3968
04:13:16Z.660	28375	132	350	-6336
04:13:14Z.124	29925	162	359	-4352
04:13:19Z.014	28375	93	353	7744
04:13:19Z.508	27925	99	354	7808
04:13:22Z.944	27925	62	351	6528
04:13:21Z.976	28375	62	351	6528

Of course, I may be reading this raw data incorrectly.

 

[indykid]

Pure speculation - Structural failure could cause a severe nose up condition, such as the elevators going into a climb attitude. The pilot would be trying to push the nose down to compensate, but a runaway computer would not allow it. (Airbus flight computers override the pilot if it determines the pilot actions could cause aircraft damage) When the aircraft finally ran out of airspeed, as it seems it did based on ground speed, it would stall with the nose dropping. With the pilot already trying to get the nose down, possibly even using trim control to do it, stresses on the airframe could lead to inflight failure.

Personal speculation, from a pilot and federally licensed aircraft mechanic, there is something funny looking about the tail section that landed well away from the main wreckage. The top of the fuselage connection joint looks like a clean break, possibly a result of rivet failure. The bottom half looks torn off. I believe there was a report of a tail strike resulting from a hard landing many years ago. An improper repair, or damage not seen could have resulted in the damage as seen in the photos of the tail section. Again, personal speculation.

 

[T.Lex]

Personal speculation, from a pilot and federally licensed aircraft mechanic, there is something funny looking about the tail section that landed well away from the main wreckage.

Excellent. Already more credible than me!

What do you think of a scenario where the aircraft split, and the part with the wings - now MUCH lighter - in an elevator-climb state, could that part gain ~3k ft of altitude in a second or so, while the tail section fell?

To me, if the aircraft went into a significant climb, then broke apart, the data would still show a single radar return for at least a few seconds during the climb.

 

[T.Lex]

Some other notable updates from this site:
AirLive.net: Russian Metrojet A321, flight 7K9268 plane carrying 224 people crashes in central Sinai, Egypt

Aviation experts from multiple different outlets and backgrounds believe that the most plausible reason of the crash of #7K9268 was an explosive decrompression of the cabin. According to multiple sources, the co-pilot of the doomed flight had expressed concern to his wife over the mechanical state of the plane involved in the incident.
...
In last 5 flights before crash crew recorded no remarks about state of aircraft #7K9268 in log book - Kolavia
...
The crew did not make contact with ground about problems with the plane during the flight, according to Russia Kogalymavia Airline
...
Metrojet official says it is impossible for an Airbus plane to break up in the air because of a "technical or pilot fault" (Reuters)

And, a tidbit that will be sure to encourage conspiracy theories:

UPDATE For various reasons, 16 passengers should have been on board the flight 7K9268 have not boarded the aircraft , confirmed Kolavia.

The tail section:

Not much left of the fuselage, at least not by the pics.

 

[Leadeye]

I'm inclined to go with severe stall, computer, aft CG condition, tough to say without some data from the attitude indicator. Lots of things about aerodynamic flutter that are still not understood.

 

[Redtbird]

The latest theory I've heard was possibly some type of an onboard explosive device. Saw something somewhere about the outer skin peeled back.

 

[T.Lex]

The latest theory I've heard was possibly some type of an onboard explosive device. Saw something somewhere about the outer skin peeled back.

I haven't seen that yet, but it would also be consistent with the Pan Am 103/Lockerbie investigation.

Edit:
CBS is reporting US infrared satellite detected 'heat flash' in the area of the flight at the time of the crash.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/satellite-detected-heat-flash-at-time-russian-plane-went-down/

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Black boxes recovered... but look closely.

THEY AREN'T BLACK!! CONSPIRACY, THE ILLUMINATI, CHEMTRAILS, THERE'S FLOURIDE IN THE TAPWATER, SOYLENT GREEN IS PEOPLE, JET BEAMS CAN'T MELT STEEL FUEL, OBAMA IS A CANADIAN

Black boxes of Russian plane crash recovered - PzFeed

 

[T.Lex]

IR "heat flash" appears confirmed, and absent a missile trail, suggests an on-board explosion occurred.
Satellite Shows Heat Flash When Russian Metrojet Plane Crashed, But No Missile: U.S. Officials - NBC News

Initial reports from medical personnel regarding the state of the bodies:
Russian plane crash: state of bodies suggests mid-air explosion - latest news - Telegraph

An Egyptian doctor who examined around half of the 224 bodies told The Telegraph that about one in five of the corpses had been badly burned in the moments before death.
The finding suggests that a fire broke out in the cabin while the plane was still the air but the doctor was not able to firmly conclude what caused the fire.

 

[T.Lex]

Russian plane crash: state of bodies suggests mid-air explosion - latest news - Telegraph

The plane may have crashed after an engine malfunction sent components slamming into the side of the fuselage, Egyptian press have reported. Al-Masri al-Yaum, an Egyptian newspaper, cited an unnamed member of the commission investigating the crash saying that black box analysis suggested a explosion had occurred in one of the engines.