Once the AR-15 bubble breaks...

[theweakerbrother]

I think in six months we'll see a difference.

 

[LionsFan1911Man]

My Thoughts Exactly

I think if you give it another month the hysteria will be gone. Everyones attention will be back on football and who is going to win the super bowl. After that people will be looking to recoup some of there money and will be looking to sell for less then what they paid. Just have cash on stand by and be ready to jump when you see a good deal.

This is exactly what I think will happen as well. People that didn't ever really want one ran out and bought one and will need that money come summer and the next hobby is calling them. The serious shooters should make out okay once this starts

 

[twolfe82]

I hope it calms down because I would like to find a couple of stripped lowers to build for my kids.

 

[RGR12]

Once the rush stops and the distributors catch up, the prices will start to come back down.

 

[dominicandemon]

Good thread, keep the comments coming.
If there is no ban, the will be a major bubble burst for sure, but of course right now is all about supply and demand.

 

[Sniper 79]

Totally right it will be like the Harley market. Everybody had to have one once they saw Jesse James and Orange County Choppers on TV. Then the market got flooded with them and you can buy a real nice one now for not much money compared to what prices were not long ago.

I plan on buying once things settle. Right now I am going to sit on what I have and horse trade if I need to.

 

[Beowulf]

The AR market may stabilize if they managed to kill any ban bill. I'm not sure the AK market will return to anything near it was (and it was only a few years ago that you could buy a WASR for $350). The AK market can easily be permanently distorted by banning the importation of parts kits and magazines (something the ATF and Obama can just do without congressional authority). I think some of the stock of AK kits were already starting to run dry prior to this craziness anyway.

 

[fyver]

Hello all, I'm VERY new to the AR world, but wanted to add to the discussion. I currently don't have an M4/AR, and really can't find one anywhere. My thoughts are the longer the distance between Newton and any potential legislation, the better. I agree with some of the previous comments; our best hope here is that the Feb/Mar focus for the citizens is Superbowl and March Madness and the politicians is the debt ceiling debate.

 

[traderdan]

It may sell, but in five days, ZERO bids.

It sold. Not a bad deal either.

 

[natestyle]

If prices come back down I'm going after a couple AK's. 7.62 seemed to be easier to find then my .223 when it was bad.

 

[Zoub]

It may sell, but in five days, ZERO bids.

You mean the gun that sold for $1475.

I have a friend who makes lowers for about 50 brands. Back in August or September there was a shortage of the metals needed to make them. The other day he cranked hundreds of uppers for an order that was from 4 months ago. There was already a backlog on the books before the shooting.

It will be easier to get mags then it will AR's. I am waiting to hear back from my friend on how many lowers I can get in one batch.

 

[fyver]

Explain to me how banning standard capacity mags is the best case scenario?

I think the argument is this would be the best of a worst case scenario. If you're assuming that most AR holders have already picked up the magazines they already want...

 

[gunman41mag]

It may sell, but in five days, ZERO bids.

I did better selling this COLT AR-15 COLT SPORTER TARGET .223 AR-15 5.56 AR15 223 : Semi Auto Rifles at GunBroker.com

 

[Hohn]

This is just getting started. It's along way from over. You could have bought before the shooting at last years pricing, or the current "inflated" prices. When the potential ban gets introduced, this weeks prices will seem cheap by comparison. All those "idiots" that bought at outrageous prices of the past couple weeks might be the smartest people you know.

Lets just suppose for a minute that the republicans cave in (that's never happened), and Feinstein gets her wish. Then what? Prices won't be coming down as quick as most think.
Just a thought.

If the ban goes through, then prices will skyrocket, then come down a little bit (they always overshoot) and stabilize at an elevated level.


If it doesn't go through, you'll not only have prices drop, but they will drop far below what they were recently. I wouldn't be surprised if they drop to the $500 or less range. Prices overshoot both directions (just not at the same rates). Then they'll come up off that trough a little bit and level out back to the 2010ish rates.

Prices always come up faster than they come down because competitive pressure forcing them down acts more slowly than the quick, panic-induced increase.

JH

 

[gunman41mag]

look how long it took ar-15 price to drop since the 2004 ban expired

 

[ironstarr]

whatever happens needs to happen already! I;m tired of the anticipation. besides all i want is some spare parts for my ar, bcg, repair kit, etc.. cant find them anywhere!

 

[drillsgt]

They can drop anytime, i've been wanting a Sig 716 for awhile I was just waiting until the 1500 then this happens. I would pay the usual 1700.00 for one but not 3K, it's not worth it to me for that.

 

[gunman41mag]

all we can do is take a gamble if the ban goes thur & you didn't buy, you'll be sorry you didn't pay $1,300 for an AR-15, but if there is N O ban & you paid $1,300 for the ar-15 & they drop back down to $820 you'll be

 

[CitiusFortius]

all we can do is take a gamble if the ban goes thur & you didn't buy, you'll be sorry you didn't pay $1,300 for an AR-15, but if there is N O ban & you paid $1,300 for the ar-15 & they drop back down to $820 you'll be

I just hope people with no cash on hand aren't charging $1500 to their credit cards.

Guns are cool, AR's are fun, but it's not worth going into 7+ months of debt for.

Plus, if you're buying based on value then you're probably buying for the wrong reason anyway. If you got $1500 cash, were thinking about one anyway then go for it. Even if prices come down next year I doubt there will be regrets.

It's the speculators that will get burned. Just my (and a lil of Dave Ramsey's)

 

[Zoub]

whatever happens needs to happen already! I;m tired of the anticipation. besides all i want is some spare parts for my ar, bcg, repair kit, etc.. cant find them anywhere!

I have them but they will cost you more than $1475. I consider them priceless right now.