Mosul has fallen

[Expat]

It's really not as simple as that. The reason a few hundred to a thousand men from the ISIS have been able to take Mosul is because it is friendly territory for the most part. The differing factions of Iraq can't seem to put their differences aside and come together. The Iraqi regular army had a minimal force in Mosul but they abandoned it when 'it' hit the fan. Taking an unoccupied city isn't really a huge success story in my opinion. That's like occupying an empty hole. There are cities where the battle will actually be fought and the citizens will rise up and defend their towns.

And this is why Crazy Uncle Joe may get what he has wanted for some time and that is a break up of Iraq into 3 distinct countries. The problem though, as I understand it, is that the Shiites and Kurds will both have oil producing territory. The Sunni area does not. That will create some obvious friction.

 

[ryancantshoot]

"Now, in spite of the things I felt at the time when we went into war, liberals said: We shouldn’t get involved. We shouldn’t nation-build. And there was no indication the people of Iraq had the will to be free. I thought that was insulting at the time. Everybody wants to be free. They said we couldn’t force freedom on people. Let me lead with my mistakes,” Glenn Beck said on his radio program, according to his site.. “You are right. Liberals, you were right. We shouldn’t have.”

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-TV/2014/06/18/Beck-Liberals-You-Were-Right-We-Shouldnt-Have-Gone-into-Iraq

 

[ATOMonkey]

It's really not as simple as that. The reason a few hundred to a thousand men from the ISIS have been able to take Mosul is because it is friendly territory for the most part. The differing factions of Iraq can't seem to put their differences aside and come together. The Iraqi regular army had a minimal force in Mosul but they abandoned it when 'it' hit the fan. Taking an unoccupied city isn't really a huge success story in my opinion. That's like occupying an empty hole. There are cities where the battle will actually be fought and the citizens will rise up and defend their towns.

I think you'll find most of Iraq to be friendly territory. From what I've been told (by first hand source) is that people in that region of the world are used to different factions ruling, and they really don't care who it is, as long as the day to day life isn't affected much. Or as long as the ruler isn't western. That's about the only thing they come together on is that they don't like the West.

 

[88GT]

Yet every last Muslim of the billion plus in this world means everything they've ever said about the US and will follow through.

If that weren't the case, then why all the *****ing about U.S. foreign policy?

 

[T.Lex]

Pretty soon there'll be a new nation in the Middle East - probably the Islamic Republic of the Levant or something like that.

I'm talking about ISIS controlling the border crossings:
Kerry presses Maliki as Iraq loses control of Syrian, Jordanian borders

Part of what defines a nation-state is the extent to which it controls its borders. (No comment on USian border control policies here. Do that in one of the other threads.)

If ISIS can create borders, control them, and defend them, it then becomes a de facto nation state, whether we recognize it or not. There does not appear to be an international appetite to take the border crossings back. The longer the new border is accepted, the more accepted it will become (think 38th parallel in Korea).

Iraq is being divided. If we accept it, there there will be a new oil-producing country in the area.

 

[mrjarrell]

Looks like Jordan is taking the border issue seriously and may be reinforcing their side.

Jordan fears fallout as Iraq crisis worsens - Middle East - Al Jazeera English

It also looks as if the Kurds are not looking to give back territory they've liberated from ISIS/ISIL. They want Kirkuk and it's theirs for the taking at the moment.

https://news.vice.com/video/the-battle-for-iraq-dispatch-3

 

[88GT]

Looks like Jordan is taking the border issue seriously and may be reinforcing their side.

Jordan fears fallout as Iraq crisis worsens - Middle East - Al Jazeera English

It also looks as if the Kurds are not looking to give back territory they've liberated from ISIS/ISIL. They want Kirkuk and it's theirs for the taking at the moment.

https://news.vice.com/video/the-battle-for-iraq-dispatch-3

That'll be an interesting thing to watch. Should be interesting to see how people respond to it and whether the national media circus starts demanding that they give it back.

 

[mrjarrell]

Well, according to their Constitution they can hold a vote on the matter of Kirkuk and, if it comes out in their favour, they can keep it. They've tried to hold the vote in the past, but the central government stonewalled them. Now, I'd guess the point is moot. It's in their hands and the peshmerga aren't likely to give it up without a fight, since the Iraqi army turned tail and ran. I think, if ISIS/ISIL is beaten back, we're going to eventually see Iraq divided into a 3 sections. Kurds, Baathist/Sunni and Shia.

 

[Redhorse]

And this is why Crazy Uncle Joe may get what he has wanted for some time and that is a break up of Iraq into 3 distinct countries. The problem though, as I understand it, is that the Shiites and Kurds will both have oil producing territory. The Sunni area does not. That will create some obvious friction.

The Kurds are considering independence anyways. If Baghdad falls I say go for it and take Kurdish lands in Syria as well. They simply want to be left alone and their own country, why not let them have it? They aren't exactly known for their violence as far as I know.

 

[JeremiahJohnson]

Sometimes you read this stuff and you just have to laugh. Dripping with irony: Nouri Al-Maliki Rejects John Kerry's Call for Unity Government - NBC News

 

[T.Lex]

The Kurds are considering independence anyways. If Baghdad falls I say go for it and take Kurdish lands in Syria as well. They simply want to be left alone and their own country, why not let them have it? They aren't exactly known for their violence as far as I know.

Actually, and this only adds a level of irony, the PKK (Kurdish Workers Party or something like that) has been labeled a terrorist group by Turkey and the US. They've been trying for Kurdish independence for quite awhile in Turkey and Iraq.

Having said that, the Kurds overall seem more motivated to provide a stable gov't than any other group in Iraq.

 

[mrjarrell]

Sometimes you read this stuff and you just have to laugh. Dripping with irony: Nouri Al-Maliki Rejects John Kerry's Call for Unity Government - NBC News

And that will make things a whole lot worse. More sunni's will look at ISIS/ISIL in a favourable light, since they're viewed as a not terribly unfriendly group to the sunni's. Al-Maliki is a fool and is counting on Iran to pull his fat ass out of the fire. He may find himself very disappointed.

 

[armedindy]

If we went for the oil we did a pretty **** poor job of it, as the price has done nothing but get more expensive. I wish we would have just taken the damn oil, at least we would have gotten something out of all of this. Nation building is a load of horse****, if they don't want our help then let's stop trying to give it to them.

ITs because we're too PC to be imperialist...so we invade, then try to create local connects to get good prices for the stuff, instead of doing what a real imperialist would do and just amke it their own...(i know that being imperialist isnt really a good thing, but it seemslike if were going to fight it and win, they should let me in with a rifle and a stake, and call it "new indiana")...just my 2 cents...that, or glass it all i really dont care anymore (sad i know)

 

[ryancantshoot]

Could ISIS now be twice as powerful? Membership of extreme group may double in size as it merges with al Qaeda's 15,000-strong Syrian offshoot on border with Iraq | Mail Online

 

[Kirk Freeman]

It's now reported as official. Al-Qaida in Syria linking up with ISIL.

Official Al Qaeda Rebel Unit in Syria Joins ISIL | Washington Free Beacon

 

[juans]

Wow

very scary. I had been agains intervention, but I am in favor of carpet bombing like ww2 if they are advancing in the open field

juan

 

[Redhorse]

Actually, and this only adds a level of irony, the PKK (Kurdish Workers Party or something like that) has been labeled a terrorist group by Turkey and the US. They've been trying for Kurdish independence for quite awhile in Turkey and Iraq.

Having said that, the Kurds overall seem more motivated to provide a stable gov't than any other group in Iraq.

I refer to the stable government in the autonomous region controlled by the Kurds. They seem to be more stable and better off by themselves then with the corrupt Iraq. They're also vastly different than most other Muslims using Kurdish, instead of Arabic, as their official and holy language. They seem better off independent to be and also seem as better allies for the United States due to their stability. I hope this is what you meant by your post and apologize if I missed your point.

 

[mrjarrell]

This should be amusing. Some regional governments may take issue with this. These guys really are delusional.

ISIL declares new 'Islamic caliphate' - Middle East - Al Jazeera English

 

[Henry]

Delusional or not, they are progressing and leaning forward.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

https://twitter.com/sqwerin/status/483446313099358208

"A US intelligence official said analysts routinely warned Obama admin of the growing strength of #ISIS and its threat to Iraq’s stability."

Big ****ing deal.

John Kerry last week - no one saw ISIS coming.

CIA this week - we did and we told you.

Exactly like Benghazi.

God damn this President, and God damn this administration.