Your first mistake is in thinking that the American electorate is a rational entity with a primary goal of expanding freedom for the people and reducing power of the federal government. When you quit making your suppositions from that point, you'll find it easy to see how Ron Paul has a snowball's chance in hell.
I abhor Paul's foreign policy platform. His approach is to pretend that if we don't poke the sleeping bear with a sharp stick, no harm will come to us. And really? A civilian court trial for bin Laden? Let's show those terrorists we mean business.
I must spread some rep before I can......