Japan Crashing

[phylodog]

If depends on your individual circumstances. If you don't have any money in the stock market, then how well it's doing doesn't help you. But if you have a significant investment, then the increases in dividends and capital gains far outpace your increases in cost of living. (And this includes 401(k) and IRA retirement funds if you have a large amount invested.)

That makes sense and was what I suspected these people were basing their opinion from. Doesn't make sense as an argument to me but I get it, thank you.

 

[foszoe]

Got it , thanks. I ordered 2 rolls to start off with.

I tried to put one in a candy machine, but it wouldn't fit in the coin slot.

Hmm.

We need to talk. I think 1 bitcoin will cover my fee. It's basically candy money to you so I am sure you won't miss it. We will set you up for success.

If my method works for you then I will try it myself.

 

[xwing]

Again I may be mistaken, but aren’t capital gains taxed? Did your equation take that amount into consideration?

Yes. All income is taxed. Long term capital gains are taxed at a low rate (15% for most people). Dividends are taxed at your marginal income tax rate (the same as your wages.)

I’ve found that most people attempting to make a financial point will cherry pick numbers. Such as from point A to point B, then use the results to justify their point of view.

In no way am I saying that is what you have done.

If you want to use a broad scope use 2000 years and gold.

I used 153 years of data because that's the data that was readily available and most relevant. Gold is more a "store of value" than an "investment" and isn't very relevant in predicting the future of the United States stock market.

I don't really have any agenda. Invest however you'd like, and in the way that meets your individual risk / reward goals. But based on history, investing with broad stock-market exposure (e.g. VOO for US S&P500 or VT for entire world) is a good way to go. Every time there is a market downturn, people think "the sky is falling". They are usually wrong. (And in a 30 year time frame, they are always wrong.)

 

[Route 45]

 

[rhamersley]

 

[tim87tr]

That's all ok if ALL your money (including what you have to spend to maintain or hopefully increase your standard of living) were invested. The problem with inflation is, I believe, that inflation outpaces wage growth and since people are required to spend an ever increasing percentage of their income to maintain their standard of living, less and less is left to invest in a market that might outpace inflation. The end result is declining standards of living, particularly for the middle class.

Very true and you see inflation outpacing wage growth extensively in the middle class, who often are in a "living beyond their means" lifestyle anyway due to their income level. Most have their investments in tax deferred accounts that they can't access till age 59.5, so they're unable to utilize the alleged "outpace inflation" market returns.

I don't see the stock market maintaining ones wealth when the dollar has been devalued at an accelerated rate the last few years with all the printing. In fact the market increases seem to correlate to the inflation, the drop in the value of this fiat money.

That 2% inflation benchmark the Fed keeps referring to is a lie. That would be saying goods and services we have purchased last year only increased 2%. Buying items of value to your life, low cost of living approach and tangible assets are a great hedge against much of what is going on. That CPI number is a joke also.

Printer goes Brrrrrrrrrr

 

[blain]

All I see from the cheap seats is the devaluation of the dollar.

And that's all you need to know.
You're supposed to step aside and let the Financial/Acedemic/Political Brains run the show.
It's not that they don't want the serf class, it's just that the serf class needs to plod along, keep their nose to the grind stone and be happy with what they're given.
Like the quote goes from Cool Hand Luke...
"I got my mind right"

 

[firecadet613]

It's like it was a discounted day to buy...

 

[foszoe]

Sell SQQQ buy TQQQ sell TQQQ buy SQQQ.

Dream of an S an a T with 4 Qs

 

[foszoe]

It's like it was a discounted day to buy...

POWL! BAM!

 

[oze]

Hmm.

We need to talk. I think 1 bitcoin will cover my fee. It's basically candy money to you so I am sure you won't miss it. We will set you up for success.

If my method works for you then I will try it myself.

Well, tbh, I was hoping to get change back.

 

[Ingomike]

Got it , thanks. I ordered 2 rolls to start off with.

I tried to put one in a candy machine, but it wouldn't fit in the coin slot.

You are living the crypto currency dream of how to become a crypto millionaire…

Start with $3,000,000,000 in crypto and poof one can quickly become a millionaire…

 

[smokingman]

Japans central bank buys ETF's. Before yesterday they owned 4.6% of all Japanese stocks(up to 80% of a few companies as well). They now own over 80% of all ETF stocks offerings(up from 63%in 2019).
Any wager they own much more than 4.6% today? I would wager that today they own almost 8%-10% of all stocks in Japan.

Works perfectly for WEF too,as it helps them along the "you will own nothing and be happy" if central banks own and control the markets.

Tada,all the worlds problems solved with central control.

 

[smokingman]

Yes, there has been inflation. And the last few years have been higher than average (although nothing compared to the 1970s and early 1980s). The market far outperforms inflation over time. I actually wrote a stock-market monte-carlo simulator using the S&P500 (and its predecessors) from 1871 through 2024. It's not even close. There is a greater than 8% spread between stock market yield (averaging 10.4%) and inflation (averaging 2.2%). Even the bond market (based on 10-year Treasury yields) doubles inflation over time.

BTW you are incorrect about "zero growth since after adjusting for inflation".

They can,do,and have continiously changed how CPI is calculated to manipulate inflation to look lower than it is.
What you posted uses official CPI does it not? I advise against using it, much like most of corporate America has done as the numbers are meaningless at this point other than to feed to the media.

Alternate Inflation Charts

www.shadowstats.com

 

[tim87tr]

Japans central bank buys ETF's. Before yesterday they owned 4.6% of all Japanese stocks(up to 80% of a few companies as well). They now own over 80% of all ETF stocks offerings(up from 63%in 2019).
Any wager they own much more than 4.6% today? I would wager that today they own almost 8%-10% of all stocks in Japan.

Works perfectly for WEF too,as it helps them along the "you will own nothing and be happy" if central banks own and control the markets.

Tada,all the worlds problems solved with central control.

This could correlate to how returns were flat until suddenly on November 1st last year, portfolios suddenly increased up until recently. I think there's a lot of going direct financialization going on. The Fed is the best at it with quantitative easing. Printers go Brrrrrrrr

They can,do,and have continiously changed how CPI is calculated to manipulate inflation to look lower than it is.
What you posted uses official CPI does it not? I advise against using it, much like most of corporate America has done as the numbers are meaningless at this point other than to feed to the media.

Alternate Inflation Charts

www.shadowstats.com

I've been on Johns website before and listened to him on various interviews. Not many talk about the real numbers of inflation and CPI index. There's a reason for that in a debt based fiat system. I saw a recent statistic that 97% of the worlds "wealth" is debt based.

 

[JTKelly]

That's all ok if ALL your money (including what you have to spend to maintain or hopefully increase your standard of living) were invested. The problem with inflation is, I believe, that inflation outpaces wage growth and since people are required to spend an ever increasing percentage of their income to maintain their standard of living, less and less is left to invest in a market that might outpace inflation. The end result is declining standards of living, particularly for the middle class.

That is the plan. The whole government economic policy, the goal of every Fed move and tax. To KEEP you working for THEM. Just like the farmer hangs a carrot in front of a donkey.

 

[Ingomike]

ð°ðºð¸ S&P500 Price in ð¥ BTC

ðºð¸ S&P500 (the ð¢ green line) measured in ð¥ BTC (the ð´ red line) to adjust it for inflation. See the effect of inflation on prices.

inflationchart.com

Or not.

Not that I am a crypto fan. Disclosure. I invested 5% in crypto awhile back. About the only thing I have to sell every now and then to keep from having too much exposure.

I was just updating the old joke about how to become a millionaire in [insert any hobby] you start with multimillions…

 

[Route 45]

 

[Nugget]

This is why you just keep buying and holding. If you make a "move" in the market because you think you're outsmarting someone, just remember there's someone on the other side of that trade doing the opposite thing but for the same reason. Chances are, they're smarter than you (or at least, have better inside information.)

 

[BehindBlueI's]

I am not a financial guy, nor am I a numbers guy so perhaps it is my ignorance which prohibits me from understanding how the performance of the stock market is supposed to compensate for inflation.

Think of the stock market as a second job, but one you invest money in vs time in to get the wage. If your wages, from whatever source, outpace inflation than your buying power goes up. If your wages don't keep up with inflation, your buying power goes down.

Just like any wage, if you don't "work there" then it doesn't matter to you personally and you get no benefit from those raises.

My goal is to walk away from this job without taking a pay cut and without working somewhere new. I can do that via the "wage" of passive income from investing supplementing my pension. So, I invest in both tax deferred and non-tax deferred accounts which will give me money to draw on both before traditional IRS-approved retirement age and after.

Then, funny thing, the "wages" from investments have a much more favorable tax burden than wages from working. Long term capital gains for a married couple are tax free until roughly $95k, and 15% after that until somewhat over half a million. Living on your passive income vs wages increases your buying power via reduced tax burden, which is even wider in some states. Move somewhere that doesn't tax pensions but doesn't have stupid high property taxes...literal profit.