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HRC within margin of error in indiana
- Thread starter LPMan59
- Start date
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FWIW is right - not much.
Maybe I missed it, as I'm not familiar with the site, but who are the "experts" they consulted?
"Actuarials"?
The people who figure out death rates for insurance and pension purposes? That's not quite as bad as judging a fish on how well it rides a bike, but it certainly isn't in their lane.
Their primary complaint is that the polls skewed toward Dems. I didn't see a link to the actual polls, but I'm guessing (since they used numbers that added up to 100), that they were talking about the self-reported affiliation of the responder. That's not something the polling company can usually control.
The number is dialed automagically these days, the person (or robot) asks the person how they affiliate, then are left with a response. If they ask 100 people and 43 say they are Dems, then that's the number. It just shows more people self-describe as Dems, not that the poll targeted more Dems. Particularly the Fox poll - I sincerely doubt they would intentionally weight it toward Dems. Unless Fox is now part of the MSM conspiracy? Wouldn't that be a kick in the nuts.
Again, if I missed the identity of these "experts" or the links to the specific polls, I'm more than happy to check them out.
Oh, and Trump is no Reagan and this isn't 1980.
So Trump wins and everybody in and their brother in the power structure says it's impossible because the polls all said no.....
Russia clearly hacked the voting machines..... oblama declares mis-election and says in power to protect the process........
Russia clearly hacked the voting machines..... oblama declares mis-election and says in power to protect the process........
lol, can't argue there
ill believe that when me poop turns purple and smells like rainbow sherbet
https://theconservativetreehouse.co...linton-arizona-polling-narrative/#more-123379
[h=3]In order to get the poll to show Hillary Clinton with a 5 point lead, they needed to survey more than twice as many Democrats as Republicans.(Poll Data Here) This is so far over-the-top, it goes to show how far the media are willing to go in their efforts to retain the ruse.[/h]
Makes one wonder just how many crossover voters Trump might get. D+34 only gives her a 5-point lead, that's insane.
[h=3]In order to get the poll to show Hillary Clinton with a 5 point lead, they needed to survey more than twice as many Democrats as Republicans.(Poll Data Here) This is so far over-the-top, it goes to show how far the media are willing to go in their efforts to retain the ruse.[/h]
Makes one wonder just how many crossover voters Trump might get. D+34 only gives her a 5-point lead, that's insane.
If you think AZ runs 58/24/21 D/R/I, you've got a hole in your head.
"Statistics show a close division among registered voters: Republicans 36%, Democrats 33%, and independents 30%, with independents growing at a much faster rate than either major party.[SUP][1]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Arizona[/SUP]
"Statistics show a close division among registered voters: Republicans 36%, Democrats 33%, and independents 30%, with independents growing at a much faster rate than either major party.[SUP][1]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Arizona[/SUP]
Yes, I'm sorry, I wasn't clear.
If you go to the link, there are 2 embedded pdfs that go into great detail about the methodology.
Page 6 of the first pdf is where it states the unweighted self-reporting of party affiliation. That's where they got the 24-57 split.
Page 6 of the second pdf is where they start breaking down the weighted averages. This means that the proportion of the responses was adjusted according to the registered voter ratio. So, about 60% of self-identifying Republicans were going to vote for Trump, but about 75% of self-identifying Dems were. Basically, they take the percentage of self-identifying Republicans voting for Trump and apply that to the percentage of registered/likely voting Republicans.
In other words, if all registered Republicans voted for Trump in the same proportion as the self-identifying Republicans in the polls say they are voting for Trump, what would the result be?
It can get messy, particularly when they are accounting for other variables, but it is just math. Not a conspiracy.
^^^^ This Most of the polls are left wing media driven, and SEVERELY over sample democrats, and under sample Pubs and Indies. They do this to drive the IDEA into the heads of Pubs, that they will lose...and thus stem the voting enthusiasm gap. Plus...there is a segment that just wants to be on the winning team, period. so they try to sway them to vote for Dems.
Stickfight
Expert
Why are we beaten so thoroughly and consistently? Any theories as to that?
Why don't we do what they do and win, instead of lose?
