Did world war 3 just start?

[Kutnupe14]

Whether it happens officially or not isn't really the point.

Yeah, they're determined to **** Putin off. And right now, I'm not sure that was the best move to make.

 

[T.Lex]

Bit of an update on the Russian economy:
BBC News - Russia shows first sign of recession as GDP contracts

Really just confirming what was already predicted. But, this could be an interesting turn:

Mr Putin has also given the Russian central bank the power to recapitalise the country's biggest retail bank, Sberbank, directly with soft loans. The total must not exceed Sberbank's capital as measured on 1 January 2015.

The "subordinated debt" issued by the central bank, if Sberbank needs it, will not have to be repaid until other loans have been paid off. It is a cushion in case Sberbank gets into financial difficulty.

Other banks can be recapitalised by the central bank through Russia's deposit guarantee agency, using federal government bonds.

The bold part (my emphasis added) is the tricky part. If these new subordinated loans can equal a 1:1 to existing capital, then it effectively allows Sberbank to go negative debt to capital ratio. It will add liquidity to pay down existing debt, so they can juggle money on a short-term basis. But, if there's a drawn out bank run, and capital+state line of credit is not enough to pay other debts, then... well... you're looking at a collapse of the country's biggest retail bank. Think 2008's Too-Big-To-Fail in the US.

If they really do open up the program to other retail banks, then the central bank itself could get over-committed. Well, even that's not exactly accurate. Russian .gov is really only limited to the totality of Russia's assets, since Putin could probably take over any sector he wants.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Putin sends New Year’s Greetings to Obama, saying the two countries share mutual responsibility to ensure world peace. Putin said the coming year will mark 70 years since the end of World War II when countries united against Adolf Hitler.


http://english.alarabiya.net/en/variety/2014/12/31/Putin-sends-New-Year-s-Greetings-to-Obama-.html

 

[copperhead-1911]

Putin sends New Year’s Greetings to Obama, saying the two countries share mutual responsibility to ensure world peace. Putin said the coming year will mark 70 years since the end of World War II when countries united against Adolf Hitler.


http://english.alarabiya.net/en/variety/2014/12/31/Putin-sends-New-Year-s-Greetings-to-Obama-.html

Countries united against Hilter yet america cant unite against Obama. Crazy world.

 

[mrjarrell]

We can look forward to Putin ratcheting things up with Georgia, too.

Is Russia overstretching itself?

 

[Kutnupe14]

Countries united against Hilter yet america cant unite against Obama. Crazy world.

Kinda a big difference between the two.

 

[smokingman]

Can you imagine how different the world(Europe especially)would be if Russia had been allowed to join NATO when Gorbachev tried to in May of 1990?

From the council on foreign relations.
Mary Elise Sarotte | The Real Story Behind NATO Expansion | Foreign Affairs

 

[Kutnupe14]

Can you imagine how different the world(Europe especially)would be if Russia had been allowed to join NATO when Gorbachev tried to in May of 1990?

From the council on foreign relations.
Mary Elise Sarotte | The Real Story Behind NATO Expansion | Foreign Affairs

NATO wouldn't exist. And Putin would be running roughshod over eastern Europe by now.

 

[smokingman]

NATO wouldn't exist. And Putin would be running roughshod over eastern Europe by now.

I doubt Putin would be in power if Russia had been admitted into NATO.

How would Russia being in NATO end its existence?

Ah,that is right.To have a military alliance one must have an enemy in which to unite against.Which explains perfectly why Russia will always be the enemy no matter what.

We have always been at war with eastasia.Do not worry though Chocolate rations have been increased and the price of oil is down.

 

[Kutnupe14]

I doubt Putin would be in power if Russia had been admitted into NATO.

How would Russia being in NATO end its existence?

Ah,that is right.To have a military alliance one must have an enemy in which to unite against.Which explains perfectly why Russia will always be the enemy no matter what.

We have always been at war with eastasia.Do not worry though Chocolate rations have been increased and the price of oil is down.

Actually China is what I was thinking. China puts up with N. Korea, because it doesn't want one of our allies on it's borders. So I imagine Russia becoming part of NATO wouldn't go over too well with them.

 

[T.Lex]

I doubt Putin would be in power if Russia had been admitted into NATO.

How would Russia being in NATO end its existence?

Ah,that is right.To have a military alliance one must have an enemy in which to unite against.Which explains perfectly why Russia will always be the enemy no matter what.

As I recall, and the article basically confirmed my recollection, Gorbachev wasn't looking to actually join NATO, but was looking to either disband it (as the Warsaw Pact was clearly doomed), or gain entry to the inner sanctum so as to stymie any real action. The result would have been similar to the veto power of the UN security council. Or, if admission was as an associate or some sort of non-voting member, it would still provide a bully pulpit.

Many scenarios then are available for NATO to either fall totally or provide a conduit for Russian expansion. Could you imagine what Yeltsin would have done with a seat at NATO meetings? *cue Khrushchev shoe-banging*

While I appreciate an Orwell reference as much as anyone, I would point out that as Putin rose to power, Russia was not the enemy. Did the US miss a possible opportunity in the 1990s to reach a better version of detente? Probably. But, that was also the time of China's rise (I would also concede that development may have been fostered by the vacuum of Russian power) and our strategic pivot to the Pacific.

 

[mrjarrell]

And the economic hits just keep on coming. They're now a step above junk for ratings.

http://www.market watch.com/story/fitch-downgrades-russia-sovereign-rating-to-bbb--one-notch-above-junk-2015-01-09

To view the story remove the space between market and watch in the url. INGO's stupid obscenity filter thinks there is forbidden word there.

 

[mrjarrell]

Lithuania, (and likely the other Baltic states) is getting worried about Russia invading. Even going so far as to put out booklets on resistance.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/worried-russia-lithuania-says-keep-calm-read-war-103856106.html

 

[ArcadiaGP]

GIANT explosion at Donetsk airport just moments ago

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Here's a video


[video=youtube;XT81RbmGUVU]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XT81RbmGUVU&feature=youtu.be[/video]

 

[T.Lex]

Good thing there's a ceasefire. Otherwise, the pro-Russian groups might take the airport.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/17/world/europe/russia-ukraine-donetsk-airport.html?_r=0

 

[smokingman]

Good thing there's a ceasefire. Otherwise, the pro-Russian groups might take the airport.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/17/world/europe/russia-ukraine-donetsk-airport.html?_r=0

I think the rebels have controlled the airport since October?The following is from USA today,back in October.
Ground zero in the battle for Ukraine: Donetsk airport
Ukrainian officials extol their fighters at the airport as besieged heroes preventing a staging point for future attacks that would threaten the rest of the country. Tolstikh says the airport has gained symbolic importance to Ukraine because fighting there has lasted so long.
The rebels have retaken the airport, he said, but Ukrainian forces continue to fire howitzer cannons, mortars and tanks from constantly changing positions in a thicket nearby.

 

[T.Lex]

Couple different articles on this.

First, a "thank you, Mr. Obvious" moment:
Russian Military Forces, Weapons Enter Ukraine, Confirms Prime Minister

Ukraine Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, 40, confirmed Russian military forces and equipment have entered Ukraine, state-run media reported Monday. "I have just spoken with the national defense and security council secretary,” Yatsenyuk said. “Ukrainian military intelligence confirm the fact military personnel and equipment have been transferred from Russia to Ukraine.”

Perhaps as important as the low-boil war is in the Ukraine, here is an article about the broader political environment in Europe. In one word, "fractured."
BBC News - BBC Democracy Day: Europe 'faces political earthquakes'

Political earthquakes could be in store for Europe in 2015, according to research by the Economist Intelligence Unit for the BBC's Democracy Day.
It says the rising appeal of populist parties could see some winning elections and mainstream parties forced into previously unthinkable alliances.

I hope we are long past the days of a "European war" being a "civil war."

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Album of recent photos from Donetsk airport...

Wow.

imgur: the simple image sharer

 

[T.Lex]

Donetsk airport falls into hands of pro-Russia separatists - LA Times

Apparently the Ukrainian forces have ceded control of the entire airport to the pro-Russian separatists.

“For six days we were desperately trying to regain control of the new terminal but failed,” Biryukov said in an interview to The Times. “At the same time the airport continues to remain the battle field and the front line.”

Small caveat about the link - it basically has partisan quotes and not much "news."