Coronovirus IV

[Trigger Time]

I like you TT, and I'll chalk this up to "just another post-midnight TT post", but **** like this gets you put on a list.

I don't care about being on their lists. If you are a gun owner, express your love for the constitution, & President Trump, then you're already on a list too.
That's the problem. Its time everyone starts standing up and speaking out against government corruption no matter what side its on.
I'm not a member of any militias or hate groups or drug cartels.
Its really sick and terrifying that good Americans get targeted while true criminals, traitors, and violent thugs run free.
I didn't call for anarchy or illegal actions. I called for justice through law enforcement and the courts. But those entities are rampant with corruption.

 

[Trigger Time]

Agendists gonna agenda, and that includes you, TT.

That article is based on modeling. You know, that thing that you only trust when it supports your view.

I'll repeat foszoe's request for you to identify INGOers who "mocked" you. I'm curious who you think did that. I don't recall seeing it, but maybe I missed it.

Along those same lines, so far, so good, for the re-opening.

Daily deaths continue to (mostly) fall. Reported death rate is dropping, now at about 5.8%, and never got higher than 6. That's FAR better than some Euro countries. We're passing the 2 week mark of relaxed measures and no direct sign of any second wave.

The IHME updated modeling predicts about 131k dead by August 4.

I have no agenda other than to see the country open and to stop this calculated false panic that was intentionally unleashed on us.
Your numbers don't hold water because the data used to collect them are false.
The overall death rate IS below .2%. This is fact.
Everything needs fully opened back up with zero restrictions now.
If people want to stay home or wear a mask then so be it. They have that right to be scared little sheep.
They should have been doing it way before covid hit.
Newsflash!
If your health sucks or you are elderly, your chances of death increase significantly every time you step foot out of bed.

As far as being mocked, i was more referring to mocking the truth. But its always the same scared sheep. The same people who I question their intentions, and love for this country. I'm not naming names. They know who they are

 

[T.Lex]

I watch the actual number in ICU today for my state. We are still increasing slowly and at an all-time high as of yesterday with 268 (new numbers come out at 11am each day).
What happens in new york or any other distant place does not directly affect what happens here so I don't use their numbers.

So, I actually meant to bring this up in my earlier post.

The reportedCases and notional reports of critical cases can be viewed as sampling. That is, a perfectly legitimate strategy for statistics (and polling) is to not try and count everything, but just count some of the things. (Also useful for six sigma exercises.)

There is an inherent error rate. But, it can provide useful insight into the numbers. And yes, trending does help with predicting. It is kinda the same thing.

So, reportedCases, reportedDeaths and the information about critical cases cannot be relied upon to be accurate as to the whole picture, it can be viewed to be a sampling. NY's reportedCases per 100k population is a number. If Minnesota's reportedCases per 100k population is a higher number, then the epidemic is probably "worse" in Minnesota.

That's useful for things like determining how/when to move to different re-opening phases.

For awhile in March, the critical cases was almost perfectly tracking the total reportedDeaths for any given day. That is, one could extrapolate a percentage of the sampled critical cases that were dying each day.

Then there was some unknown changes to the sourcing (as best I can figure), and it hasn't really tracked since then. Hopefully, at some point, enough places will be consistently reporting the critical cases that it will be useful again.

 

[T.Lex]

I have no agenda other than to see the country open and to stop this calculated false panic that was intentionally unleashed on us.

Which is an agenda.

Your numbers don't hold water because the data used to collect them are false.
The overall death rate IS below .2%. This is fact.

How do you know? The CDC modeling told you that?

If it is a fact, then how much below?

Everything needs fully opened back up with zero restrictions now.
If people want to stay home or wear a mask then so be it. They have that right to be scared little sheep.
They should have been doing it way before covid hit.
Newsflash!
If your health sucks or you are elderly, your chances of death increase significantly every time you step foot out of bed.

Ok.

Vote for herd immunity NOW duly noted.

Just to make sure you are aware of the policy implications of that, let's do math based on your "facts."

There are roughly 300M people in the US. Let's say 80% get infected (I think that's reasonable, but I'm open to whatever number you want to use). That's 240M people that will get infected. At your "factual" .2%, that's 480k dead. Let's take out the 100k that have already died.

That leaves ~380k people who would get sick and die in the next... let's say 3 months? The more we "open," the faster we'll get to that number.

Of course, that many people may die anyway before there's a vaccine/treatment (although remdesivir continues to look promising, from what I can tell). But, FULL OPEN NOW puts that number in play.

You good with that?

As far as being mocked, i was more referring to mocking the truth. But its always the same scared sheep. The same people who I question their intentions, and love for this country. I'm not naming names. They know who they are

Why not? If they know and you know, then there's no real secret to it.

 

[Phase2]

Which is an agenda.

So you agree with him. Not sure what is funny about it.

 

[T.Lex]

So you agree with him. Not sure what is funny about it.

That he has an agenda? Yes.

Like the "municipal sewage study is full of ****" bit, not everyone is on the same page when it comes to humor.

TT denying an agenda in the same sentence that he states an agenda is funny. At least ironic.

 

[Ingomike]

Agendists gonna agenda, and that includes you, TT.

That article is based on modeling. You know, that thing that you only trust when it supports your view.

I'll repeat foszoe's request for you to identify INGOers who "mocked" you. I'm curious who you think did that. I don't recall seeing it, but maybe I missed it.

Along those same lines, so far, so good, for the re-opening.

Daily deaths continue to (mostly) fall. Reported death rate is dropping, now at about 5.8%, and never got higher than 6. That's FAR better than some Euro countries. We're passing the 2 week mark of relaxed measures and no direct sign of any second wave.

The IHME updated modeling predicts about 131k dead by August 4.

You mean all those just so sure millions were going to die and this was the big one? One only need to reread the Cronavirus threads to see the flow.

The first C-19 thread was some predicting the doom of a historic pandemic then the transition to lockdown, oh, we were arguing about masks then as well. There were some that I felt were actually celebrating as the numbers rose and I posted directly about that. Any of us posting articles that were not gloom and doom were often replied to in a mocking tone and a superiority sense. Those mocking often posted authoritarian looking predictions from credentialed sources without being able to see their flaws. Heck, our own doctor giving reports from his hospital was being told by the know it all's that he was an anomaly and the doom was coming.

To those that were mocking, your posts may be buried in 16,000 plus posts but they can be found and replied to, but I have better things to do with my time.

I am proud to to say I saw this for what it was all along, caught flack for saying so, but said it anyway, dos my best to post positive news to counter the overwrought. I do appreciate those with different opinions as good decisions are made in a hot forge of discussion...

 

[JettaKnight]

Enough of us have to be brave enough to put ourselves on the line,
to go back to living life as before they gave us the bat bug,
or we lose our civilization.

Great Caesar's Ghost - you are still active!


Good to see you back.



I went out for pancakes on Sunday morning between services... sure, I'll claim it was an act of bravery.

 

[Phase2]

TT denying an agenda in the same sentence that he states an agenda is funny. At least ironic.

Please re-read his statement. He didn't deny having an agenda at all.

 

[Phase2]

‘Non-Essential’ Store Opened During Lockdown To Sell New Mexico Governor Jewelry

Do any of these Democrat governors follow the policies they are imposing on others?

 

[T.Lex]

You mean all those just so sure millions were going to die and this was the big one? One only need to reread the Cronavirus threads to see the flow.

The first C-19 thread was some predicting the doom of a historic pandemic then the transition to lockdown, oh, we were arguing about masks then as well. There were some that I felt were actually celebrating as the numbers rose and I posted directly about that. Any of us posting articles that were not gloom and doom were often replied to in a mocking tone and a superiority sense. Those mocking often posted authoritarian looking predictions from credentialed sources without being able to see their flaws. Heck, our own doctor giving reports from his hospital was being told by the know it all's that he was an anomaly and the doom was coming.

I was part of those threads and don't remember mocking, at least not the kind you describe?

To those that were mocking, your posts may be buried in 16,000 plus posts but they can be found and replied to, but I have better things to do with my time.

Especially early, there wasn't much clarity at all - and even worse reporting than what we now observe.

Disagreements over the scale and importance of certain things is absolutely valid. I recall being sandwiched between, "This isn't dire enough to be The Big One." and, "This is real and we need to take it seriously."

I am proud to to say I saw this for what it was all along, caught flack for saying so, but said it anyway, dos my best to post positive news to counter the overwrought. I do appreciate those with different opinions as good decisions are made in a hot forge of discussion...

Marketplace of ideas.

 

[T.Lex]

Please re-read his statement. He didn't deny having an agenda at all.

Please re-read his statement. He said he had "no agenda" other than an agenda. That's funny right there.

 

[JettaKnight]

I don't care about being on their lists. If you are a gun owner, express your love for the constitution, & President Trump, then you're already on a list too.
That's the problem. Its time everyone starts standing up and speaking out against government corruption no matter what side its on.
I'm not a member of any militias or hate groups or drug cartels.
Its really sick and terrifying that good Americans get targeted while true criminals, traitors, and violent thugs run free.
I didn't call for anarchy or illegal actions. I called for justice through law enforcement and the courts. But those entities are rampant with corruption.

We're totally on the same side, it's just our perception of the problem is an order (maybe two or three) of magnitude different.

Historically, and in contrast to other countries (looking at you, Portugal!), we're doing OK, but could be better.
https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi



Of course, this is a side track, so I won't go any further. Except this edit that ties it all together:

As far as being mocked, i was more referring to mocking the truth. But its always the same scared sheep. The same people who I question their intentions, and love for this country. I'm not naming names. They know who they are

The "scared sheep" are acting against a perceived threat to the American way of life, the Chinese Flu. They've looked at what's happening, and calculated a plan to deal with it. You think it's irrational and extreme.

You want action against a perceived threat to the American way of life, liberalism and corruption. You've looked at what's happening, and calculated a plan to deal with it. They think it's irrational and extreme.

 

[Phase2]

I know this has been posted before, but here is an updated map dividing Wuhan coronavirus cases by thirds:

Apparently, living in the red/yellow areas is a risk factor.

COVID deaths in selected counties in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Illinois (Chicago area) and Michigan (Detroit area). Interestingly, two-thirds of COVID deaths in the US have occurred in counties that represent only 15% of the US population.

 

[T.Lex]

I know this has been posted before, but here is an updated map dividing Wuhan coronavirus cases by thirds:

Right.

That map is just another way of saying some places are harder hit than others.

So is the agenda to hit everyone harder?

 

[JettaKnight]

Huh. I would have expect Orange Co. and King Co. to be yellow.

 

[Phase2]

So is the agenda to hit everyone harder?

The agenda is to not deliberately misinterpret the information available.

 

[nonobaddog]

So if the US death rate is about 5.8% that means if you catch the chinese virus you have about a 1 in 17 chance of dying.
The Minnesota death rate is about 4% so that means if we catch the chinese virus we have about a 1 in 25 chance of dying.

I don't think anybody believes that. I believe people think if they catch the chinese virus they have a better chance of living through it than those numbers say.

The difference in death rates...
might just mean that Minnesota has tested a higher percentage of people than the average across the rest of the US, but we don't know that.
It might mean that the health care in Minnesota is better than average
It might mean the cause of deaths are counted differently

 

[Trigger Time]

Please re-read his statement. He said he had "no agenda" other than an agenda. That's funny right there.

Word plays, spin, Insulting spelling and grammar.
I don't mind.
I don't have the agenda you may think or allude to. Also to me my agenda of seeing America succeed shouldn't be consider an agenda. It should just be what every red blooded American wants. But we have foxes in the hen house.

 

[T.Lex]

The agenda is to not deliberately misinterpret the information available.

To my knowledge, no one on INGO has done that. Both sides (from my perspective).

Please identify who on INGO has deliberately mis-represented the information available, that I might consider their credibility more thoroughly.

Oh, and for the neg-repper out there (you know who you are), if quoting or paraphrasing another INGOer is against the rules, WAY more INGOers would be shootered.

If you don't want to name names, just don't. No need to hide behind a fake rule. Or use the PM system.

So if the US death rate is about 5.8%

.... hold up. Let's use "reported" or "actual." Just for consistency.

that means if you catch the chinese virus you have about a 1 in 17 chance of dying.

So that's one way to look at it. Another is to examine who is still getting the tests. We aren't doing NEARLY enough contact tracing yet (that I'm aware of). So, those getting the tests are still going to generally be ones who are symptomatic at some level.

For me to fully agree with your statement, I would amend it to say that if someone has a symptomatic COVID infection, there's about a 1/17 chance of dying from it.

The Minnesota death rate is about 4% so that means if we catch the chinese virus we have about a 1 in 25 chance of dying.

Ok.

I don't think anybody believes that.

What people believe or can be convinced of is a much bigger topic.

The numbers are the numbers. Some will think 1/25 is too risky, others that it is pretty safe.

I believe people think if they catch the chinese virus they have a better chance of living through it than those numbers say.

Ok. Lots of people live with a sense of invulnerability, others with a low level of risk tolerance.

'Tis a free country.

The difference in death rates...
might just mean that Minnesota has tested a higher percentage of people than the average across the rest of the US, but we don't know that.
It might mean that the health care in Minnesota is better than average
It might mean the cause of deaths are counted differently

That, and much more.

Frankly, the more positive cases, the better, IMHO. Not in some dark foreboding way, but it means that we are catching infections earlier. Or at least it should mean that.