Coronavirus

[T.Lex]

You are right, in that we aren't doing a lot of testing yet. This is an interesting graphic/food for thought. We are just at the beginning...and trying to avoid the heavy impact countries before us have experienced.

I'd like to see a similar graph of deaths compared to Italy. Testing is important, of course, but isn't as... impactful I guess... as the fatalities.

People having a virus and not dying isn't a big deal.

 

[snorko]

You are right, in that we aren't doing a lot of testing yet. This is an interesting graphic/food for thought. We are just at the beginning...and trying to avoid the heavy impact countries before us have experienced.

The next 2-3 weeks will be will be a little rough here in the USA.

http://[img]https://i.imgur.com/8DpQu1w.jpg[/img]

I would say we are doing well if we match the number of cases with 20 times the population. Their pop. density is 532/sq mile versus 90/sq mi for the uU.S. and our median age is 10 years younger.

 

[foszoe]

I'm glad people don't know about roasting asparagus with oil, salt, and pepper. Never mind the cheese. Stuff's been on sale for 2 weeks. I fired up the grill again today. Comfort food is important if you get sick. Feed a cold. Starve a fever.

Thanks for the tip! I posted on my Facebook cooking group!

 

[BugI02]

I thought there was a risk of liver damage with this antimalarial drug.

I didn’t see that one but did see that it can cause retinal changes that cause blindness if you overdose, so it sounds like you need to be careful!

I am most familiar with this drug being prescribed in lieu of a biologic in rheumatoid arthritis cases. It is used to damp down on the immune system in autoimmune situations, so not sure if it is a good idea in the majority of CoVid19 cases. It does cause pigmentation of the cornea that supposedly goes away after use is discontinued. No known antiviral efficacy, so it most assuredly is not a cure, likely only relieves symptoms or may be useful to control cytokine storm

 

[JettaKnight]

So 20% of those tested have it. It will be interesting to see how this ramps up.

Which is meaningless without some insight as to why the testing was done.


As for Italy versus US, It could be interesting - there's a lot of difference - large location, pop density, current distribution.

With Italy, those cases are occurring a much, much smaller geographic location, and to a much, much higher percentage of the population, which explains the huge strain on their healthcare system.

 

[JettaKnight]

I think if I just to a stick regimen of gin and tonic, the quinine will keep me healthy.

 

[smokingman]

So, that seems like this a whole lot of panic over nothing... but low number of tests makes it almost meaningless.

Indiana is currently able to test around 30 a day.

Call them and ask. I did last week.
[FONT=&quot]Indiana State Department of Health
2 N. Meridian St.
Indianapolis, IN 46204
317-233-1325
Toll Free: 1-800-382-9480[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Hours: M-F 8:15 a.m. to 4:45 p.m.

ISDH: ISDH Contact Us[/FONT]

 

[smokingman]

I would say we are doing well if we match the number of cases with 20 times the population. Their pop. density is 532/sq mile versus 90/sq mi for the uU.S. and our median age is 10 years younger.

Population density is higher in places like New York,Seattle,LA,and so on.
Which also fits well with those having the highest case loads already.

 

[KG1]

You are right, in that we aren't doing a lot of testing yet. This is an interesting graphic/food for thought. We are just at the beginning...and trying to avoid the heavy impact countries before us have experienced.

The next 2-4 weeks will be will be a little rough here in the USA.

http://[img]https://i.imgur.com/8DpQu1w.jpg[/img]

This graph needs some context added such as how many total have been tested.

 

[JettaKnight]

Population density is higher in places like New York,Seattle,LA,and so on.
Which also fits well with those having the highest case loads already.

So, did we institute sufficient quarantining measures early enough that we'll see the number of new cases drop off, whereas in that graph Italy's new cases kept climbing?

 

[BugI02]

oh how nice, celebrities entering the "blame the jews" phase?

https://twitter.com/RoArquette/status/1239905767047626752

Reading this at 1645, tweet's been pulled already

 

[T.Lex]

Using the deaths, we can somewhat back into the number that are actually infected/carriers.

Anywhere from 66-100 based on the potential mortality rates here and in countries with advanced health systems. So, yeah, the Indiana confirmed cases is under-reported.

Which probably worries the policymakers a great deal.

 

[Wolfhound]

So, did we institute sufficient quarantining measures early enough that we'll see the number of new cases drop off, whereas in that graph Italy's new cases kept climbing?

That is the million dollar question isn't it? I think we won't have to wait long for the answer.

Did some quick research. The US population is about 5.5 times that of Italy. 330 million vs 60 million. We are more spread out here in the USA so we have that going for us I guess.

 

[qwerty]

I'd like to see a similar graph of deaths compared to Italy. Testing is important, of course, but isn't as... impactful I guess... as the fatalities.

People having a virus and not dying isn't a big deal.

I updated the spreadsheet with the data comparing Italy and the US. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...F2nSBMG8kMCK6dQZXk8zxhBvXgyDgjgXJc_K7/pubhtml


We had more cases on 2/15 when the data at worldometers.info started. Their first death was on 2/21, ours on 2/29

 

[T.Lex]

I updated the spreadsheet with the data comparing Italy and the US. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...F2nSBMG8kMCK6dQZXk8zxhBvXgyDgjgXJc_K7/pubhtml


We had more cases on 2/15 when the data at worldometers.info started. Their first death was on 2/21, ours on 2/29

Awesome. I mean, your spreadsheet. Not the virus.

But, I do think our curve will be flatter that Italy's. (*****Stuff that sounds like a Sofia Loren reference, but isn't.)

ETA:
When Italy had an equivalent number of confirmed cases, they had ~3x (maybe more like 2.5x) more total deaths, and were having ~2x more deaths per day.

Now, I'm still not convinced we have a handle on how many deaths to attribute to this. We could very well be under-reporting that, too. Hard to quantify that, though.

 

[Wolfhound]

So, based on how Corona is knocking Italy on it's keister are the numbers released by China even close to believable?

 

[smokingman]

Using the deaths, we can somewhat back into the number that are actually infected/carriers.

Anywhere from 66-100 based on the potential mortality rates here and in countries with advanced health systems. So, yeah, the Indiana confirmed cases is under-reported.

Which probably worries the policymakers a great deal.

If you use the mortality rate you need to remember those where the number infected in the past not today.
In all the studies,specifically the one with 82k in China the average time from infection CONFIRMATION and death was 9 days. 3-7(up to 42 in China) days the average amount of time to show symptoms enough to know to get tested. The amount of time from infection to illness,to confirmation and then death is around 2 weeks. Given many are ill for over a week before even worrying,and that they likely picked it up a week or more before feeling ill I think you are looking back in time roughly one month ago with a single death now,if not more.

So back in the middle of February we probably had 100 cases in Indiana.

Exponential spread by Los Alamos model would put cases now well into the tens of thousands with an RO of 4.7-6.7.(just in Indiana) which is actually inline with the Indiana department of health estimate of 60,000.
Both studies I have previously posted on INGO. Indiana would start to see that in less than 2 weeks.

I really want everyone to know I want you to be well. I want you stay safe. And not only are that you are loved,but to love each other.

This will not be an easy time for any of us.

 

[BugI02]

You are right, in that we aren't doing a lot of testing yet. This is an interesting graphic/food for thought. We are just at the beginning...and trying to avoid the heavy impact countries before us have experienced.

The next 2-4 weeks will be will be a little rough here in the USA.

http://[img]https://i.imgur.com/8DpQu1w.jpg[/img]

Would you post the link to that? Do you know if they will keep updating it? It would be interesting to watch over time and see if our curve flattens out

 

[T.Lex]

If you use the mortality rate you need to remember those where the number infected in the past not today.
In all the studies,specifically the one with 82k in China the average time from infection CONFIRMATION and death was 9 days. 3-7(up to 42 in China) days the average amount of time to show symptoms enough to know to get tested. The amount of time from infection to illness,to confirmation and then death is around 2 weeks. Given many are ill for over a week before even worrying,and that they likely picked it up a week or more before feeling ill I think you are looking back in time roughly one month ago with a single death now,if not more.

So back in the middle of February we probably had 100 cases in Indiana.

Exponential spread by Los Alamos model would put cases now well into the tens of thousands with an RO of 4.7-6.7.
Both studies I have previously posted on INGO. Indiana would start to see that in less than 2 weeks.

I really want everyone to know I want you to be well. I want you stay safe. And not only are that you are loved,but to love each other.

This will not be an easy time for any of us.

Totally agree. And, please don't take anything I say as a refutation or rebuttal to you.

I see you as an honest purveyor of information. In a marketplace of ideas, you can't ask for more than that.

I am in the camp that thinks - based on the reported numbers - the worst case predictions are just that, totally worst case. Doesn't make them irrelevant, but it means that the reality should (hopefully) be better than that.

 

[nra4ever]

Indiana National guard has been activated. Tic toc