Coronavirus II

[Denny347]

Update - I tried dedicated gloves and that is not so hot. Can't pull the second glove on without contaminating the cuff and probably me. I even tried hockey gloves since you can put them on by just sliding your hands in but they hamper your dexterity too much.

Your tongs method is far superior. I sort the mail in the garage and throw 95% of it in the trash and store any keepers for several days on a shelf.

They should really stop all the trash mail for the duration of this pandemic or better yet forever.

Or...or...wash you hands after getting the mail. It's not radiation.

 

[smokingman]

I heard a few minutes ago that a friend of my wife passed in Rhode Island. Showed some of the signs of Covid, but not all. Was told to return home. Died within 24 hours. Age: 73. Female. Generally good health.

Sorry to hear that.

It is also an example of under reporting of deaths related to covid-19 and lack of testing.

 

[printcraft]

..In a way, we are both right. Eventually, most (all?) of the population of the US will be exposed to this. Flattening the curve doesn't change that at all, to your point. I stand by my point, though, that we may end up with the same number of COVID-19 related deaths as we would've if we've done nothing. I don't think that is likely, but it is possible.

You take a first world economy able to deal with sickness on a large scale and then crash it to third world status and those deaths are likely to go up even more so.
Not to mention the addition of those now without insurance etc who can't afford to get life saving care or medicine not related to covid.

 

[maxwelhse]

Update - I tried dedicated gloves and that is not so hot. Can't pull the second glove on without contaminating the cuff and probably me. I even tried hockey gloves since you can put them on by just sliding your hands in but they hamper your dexterity too much.

Your tongs method is far superior. I sort the mail in the garage and throw 95% of it in the trash and store any keepers for several days on a shelf.

They should really stop all the trash mail for the duration of this pandemic or better yet forever.

FWIW, if you sign up for a USPS account they scan ~90% of your mail envelopes and send you an email showing you what is coming. I open the email, and if it's BS on the way, I leave it in the box. I do this most days in normal time too.

What is pissing me off is I get 2 different "junk" papers delivered that I have no control or say over receiving, they aren't essential or even desire in normal days, greater than half the time they're just loose leaf folded (like the "inserts" of Sunday papers, if you remember those) and rammed into the news paper hole of the post. So, generally twice a week I have a soggy windblown mess to pick up out of the yard, out of the gutter, and off of the street. Short of licking door knobs and toilets, those activities are pretty much the last thing I want to be doing right now and whatever POS advertising company is responsible for it just keeps sending it!

I've also caught a few of those "not" newspapers in the snow thrower before and busted shear pins because of them. That REALLY gets me PO'd...

 

[JettaKnight]

This is just me reflexively disagreeing with you. (NO peach schnapps for YOU!)

I think it is more complicated than that.

First let's agree that there's deathRatePerceived and deathRateActual (this is a test to see if JettaKnight is still reading). We don't know the deathRateActual in China, Italy, or here.

So, we're stuck with deathRatePerceived. That can be stilted by many things, including the prioritization of testing. In Italy, I suspect they are doing the most testing on the people who are sick, and REALLY sick. I don't know. I haven't read up on that. But, it makes sense from both practical and policy standpoints. So, their deathRatePerceived is so high because they are testing the people most likely to die - mostly those who are already sick.

In a way, we are both right. Eventually, most (all?) of the population of the US will be exposed to this. Flattening the curve doesn't change that at all, to your point. I stand by my point, though, that we may end up with the same number of COVID-19 related deaths as we would've if we've done nothing. I don't think that is likely, but it is possible.

I think that's kinda smokingman's point, too. There could still be a BIG number of deaths.

 

[HoughMade]

Or...or...wash you hands after getting the mail. It's not radiation.

There's that....

 

[jamil]

Just some thoughts.

-There is no incentive for the media to downplay the severity of this disease and every incentive to (assuming proper motives) report it as severe as it "actually" is in order to reinforce the need to follow the guidelines. Not assuming proper motive, horror stories get more eyes.

-There are those who take half-truth and rumors are report them as a first-hand account and can be quite believable. They even may think they are doing the right thing to try to motivate following the guidelines.

-Some people will report one thing they have seen and be so overwhelmed and panicky that they will present it as a common occurrence. See above.

-Some people are narcissists, more eyes on them.

-Some people will flat out lie "for the greater good". Some will flat-out lie because they are narcissists.

....and this is why I don't believe things I see on social media about this which are not reported in legitimate media...and I mean first-hand accounts, not reporting on what is on social media, which is a horrible practice.

I don't have a position or bias about how "bad" this is. I want good information. If it is well sourced and verified, I will have a tendency to believe it. If it seems outlandish and just tickles my "BS" antenna, which frequently happens with things that are only on social media, I won't.

It's been said that plural of anecdote ≠ data.

Things you see on social media, unless actual news reportage, are anecdotal. Hard news is reported on social media, so the news you see on social media is pretty much dependent on the reliability of the source. Social media is just another form of media, like TV, or the radio, except that it's not just a platform for a select few. Anyone can provide content. Normal people's content tends to be anecdotal. That doesn't make it a source that we should just ignore.

Though it's usually just anecdotal, it's also, usually representative of someone's reality. Interpreting that reality is where bias plays havoc. So don't. The best use of anecdotal information you find on social media isn't as a source of facts; it's at best a pointer to potential facts.

For example, the video of the nurse from Southfield Michigan is a pointer to potential facts. So fact check it. Did it happen? Not that it matters a lot but I think she thinks it happened. I don't know if she got all the facts straight or embellished some. But a news report for the area did say the hospitals were near capacity. So I'm comfortable with believing that she's right about the capacity problem at that hospital. But I don't know if the sensational parts of her story are true; like that she used the last ventilator on her patient. It's plausible, but I wouldn't call that a fact without more verifiable information.

 

[Snapdragon]

Or...or...wash you hands after getting the mail. It's not radiation.

To me, it is. My mom is 86 and in the house with me, and I am immunocompromised due to medications I take. I also have psoriasis on my hands which makes them peel, crack, and bleed (even more with all the handwashing). Lysol, gloves, and waiting a few days are where it's at here at Chez Snap. YMMV.

 

[maxwelhse]

But I'm curious as to what makes this information so unbelievable? Just because it was posted on Facebook and some people are Facebook snobs?

Because people post random stupid garbage to Facebook and Twitter non-stop so we've been conditioned to ignore them entirely...

Remember last week when the National Guard was going to be blocking off roads? I believe that's the target of the "BS rumor" squashing.

That said... My personal barometer for now to read these unverified sources is to look at them through the eye of potential damage. In the screen grabs shared that started our current debate, what harm could they cause? The overall message was "Wash your hands, stay home, and share that with people". Sounds good!

Now... If we saw something like "cops are shooting corona patients in the streets!! Defend yourselves!" we'd better look at something like that with a lot skepticism before continuing forward with any sort of activity.

I feel like examining the actual call to action of those posts is the most critical part. As long as it's a reasonable course of action being suggested, I don't particularly mind if some claims are perhaps exaggerated, even if they're not.

 

[jamil]

The sad part. We have less hospital beds and less ICU capacity per 1000 people than Italy at 3.4 per 1000.
Comparing us to Germany it is much worse. They have 8.3 beds per 1000.
USA has less than 2.9(2013,and we have actually lost beds since then).
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/sh.med.beds.zs?most_recent_value_desc=true

It may also explain how south Korea is doing so well with 13.2 per 1000.

I don't think it matters as much comparing ICU capacity between countries unless all the other conditions are the same. It matters at least a little how wide spread the cases are by area. Some places are better equipped than others. But it also matters how wide spread the cases are over time. If they're spread out longer, it'll tax the capacity less. Italy got hit really early, before much was known. Several weeks later, we're starting to be where they were at one point. I hope our leaders have learned a lot from the failures and successes.

 

[jamil]

Neither are static numbers.

That's a good point. China turned around their death toll by adding massive capacity in a short amount of time. That's not anything we can't do as well. But a lot of the capacity issue is having the equipment and drugs available needed to treat patients, and the PPE.

 

[T.Lex]

I heard a few minutes ago that a friend of my wife passed in Rhode Island. Showed some of the signs of Covid, but not all. Was told to return home. Died within 24 hours. Age: 73. Female. Generally good health.

I think I've said this before, but a year from now there will probably be some peer-reviewed articles showing how many more deaths were attributable to this.

And of course, sorry to hear about your friend.

 

[HoughMade]

Well, son of a...

Keep it out of my county, a-hole.

https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local...gn=blox&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social

 

[mmpsteve]

Update - I tried dedicated gloves and that is not so hot. Can't pull the second glove on without contaminating the cuff and probably me. I even tried hockey gloves since you can put them on by just sliding your hands in but they hamper your dexterity too much.

Your tongs method is far superior. I sort the mail in the garage and throw 95% of it in the trash and store any keepers for several days on a shelf.

They should really stop all the trash mail for the duration of this pandemic or better yet forever.

Well, please don't stop it forever - it's how I make a living. I am down 50% the last 30 days, I believe because many of my clients don't know what the hell to say in their mailings - too many unknowns to go forward.

(Side note:as an advertising medium, direct mail generally makes companies money. Yes, 97% goes in the trash, but who doesn't like pizza coupons?)

.

 

[OurDee]

Family friend that lives in Avon, and his wife has it. She is recovering at home, and he is in hospital. They did not put him on resperator. He can not talk and breath at same time. They started him on Chloroquine and other stuff. Glad he is in Indiana.

 

[mmpsteve]

That's a good point. China turned around their death toll by adding massive capacity in a short amount of time. That's not anything we can't do as well. But a lot of the capacity issue is having the equipment and drugs available needed to treat patients, and the PPE.

So wait ... You're saying we can trust China's data now? Not trying to be snarky - honest question.

.

 

[Doug]

Family friend that lives in Avon, and his wife has it. She is recovering at home, and he is in hospital. They did not put him on resperator. He can not talk and breath at same time. They started him on Chloroquine and other stuff. Glad he is in Indiana.

Please keep us updated.
Anecdotal information indicates he should improve quickly.

 

[jamil]

This is just me reflexively disagreeing with you. (NO peach schnapps for YOU!)

I think it is more complicated than that.

First let's agree that there's deathRatePerceived and deathRateActual (this is a test to see if JettaKnight is still reading). We don't know the deathRateActual in China, Italy, or here.

So, we're stuck with deathRatePerceived. That can be stilted by many things, including the prioritization of testing. In Italy, I suspect they are doing the most testing on the people who are sick, and REALLY sick. I don't know. I haven't read up on that. But, it makes sense from both practical and policy standpoints. So, their deathRatePerceived is so high because they are testing the people most likely to die - mostly those who are already sick.

In a way, we are both right. Eventually, most (all?) of the population of the US will be exposed to this. Flattening the curve doesn't change that at all, to your point. I stand by my point, though, that we may end up with the same number of COVID-19 related deaths as we would've if we've done nothing. I don't think that is likely, but it is possible.

I think that's kinda smokingman's point, too. There could still be a BIG number of deaths.

BIG number is arbitrarily arbitrary. But "same number" isn't as much. If we end up with the same number of deaths either way, that means it didn't work. It means some assumption was false. So if the all the assumptions are true, that there is a number of infected people who would die without medical care, and peak use of healthcare exceeds bandwidth causing some of those people to be denied the healthcare they need to survive, and spreading the cases out such that the peak doesn't exceed the bandwidth, the number of deaths should be lower than without the curve flattening.

 

[jamil]

If the people and the economy could stand it, we could isolate until there is a vaccine of a very effective treatment. So flattening could save lives if it extends the curve to that point.

I don't think the economy has taken it so far. A lot more people hurting from the economy than dying. But, if the reality outside my driveway is a lot like what I see on the news and social media, it will get worse. There are no guarantees. But I don't think we can withstand the economy shut down until a vaccine comes out that's effective.

 

[Leadeye]

To me, it is. My mom is 86 and in the house with me, and I am immunocompromised due to medications I take. I also have psoriasis on my hands which makes them peel, crack, and bleed (even more with all the handwashing). Lysol, gloves, and waiting a few days are where it's at here at Chez Snap. YMMV.

Ever try glycerine? I put it in my hand sanitizer formula to keep people using it as it prevents the skin from drying out. Available at drug or confectionery supply stores.