Coronavirus II

[jsx1043]

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to jsx1043 again.
​

Yes. Yes we are allowed.

Thank you sir.

I think if you’re willing to take in information and not care about sides or ideology, just take everything in and accept the facts into evidence, you’ll probably be somewhere in between. It’s not just the ***damn flu. It’s not all doom and gloom. There are some facts that support a bit of each. If you’re eager to accept all the facts that support one way, and reluctant to accept any facts the other way, you’re gonna be stuck with an unrealistic outlook.

As I was told in a patrol car a long time ago, in a beat far, far away: “There are two sides to every story, what happened in the middle is true.”

Also, while Occam’s Razor dominates in most cases, I think that we might be stuck in a case of Crabtree’s Bludgeon, to our own chagrin:

“No set of mutually inconsistent observations can exist for which some human intellect cannot conceive a coherent explanation, however complicated."

 

[Denny347]

This is social media BS, right? I can't believe we wouldn't have heard about this.

View attachment 85478

I don't doubt it for a minute. I have a friend who is an ER doc, and I also have many ER nurse friends from when I worked at the hospital. Not only is it that bad, but they have little or no PPE. They are wearing bandanas over their mouths and garbage bags for gowns.

Well, if it is real, it must not suit the libtard agenda or it would be all over TV.

I am not aware of a hospital in town without proper PPE. Our ICU is not falling apart. When they say "it's bad" they mean the disease process can do bad things. Not that hospitals are overwhelmed.

People being internet badasses

Our ICUs are not full and we're not boarding admitted patients in ED like we had been. November through February

Yup, my sis is an ICU nurse at Methodist. As of yesterday they are quiet (they cancelled all their electives) and stocked with supplies waiting for the other shoe to drop. The post sounds like BS.

 

[Ziggidy]

[FONT=&amp]“When this is all over, the NHS England board should resign in their entirety.” So wrote one National Health Service (NHS) health worker last weekend. The scale of anger and frustration is unprecedented, and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the cause. The UK Government's Contain–Delay–Mitigate–Research strategy failed. It failed, in part, because ministers didn't follow WHO's advice to “test, test, test” every suspected case. They didn't isolate and quarantine. They didn't contact trace. These basic principles of public health and infectious disease control were ignored, for reasons that remain opaque. The UK now has a new plan—Suppress–Shield–Treat–Palliate. But this plan, agreed far too late in the course of the outbreak, has left the NHS wholly unprepared for the surge of severely and critically ill patients that will soon come. I asked NHS workers to contact me with their experiences. Their messages have been as distressing as they have been horrifying. “It's terrifying for staff at the moment. Still no access to personal protective equipment [PPE] or testing.” “Rigid command structures make decision making impossible.” “There's been no guidelines, it's chaos.” “I don't feel safe. I don't feel protected.” “We are literally making it up as we go along.” “It feels as if we are actively harming patients.” “We need protection and prevention.” “Total carnage.” “NHS Trusts continue to fail miserably.” “Humanitarian crisis.” “Forget lockdown—we are going into meltdown.” “When I was country director in many conflict zones, we had better preparedness.” “The hospitals in London are overwhelmed.” “The public and media are not aware that today we no longer live in a city with a properly functioning western health-care system.” “How will we protect our patients and staff…I am speechless. It is utterly unconscionable. How can we do this? It is criminal…NHS England was not prepared…We feel completely helpless.”[/FONT]https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3/fulltextSadly I think I may know another country in the same situation.Unrelated. Choir of 60 meets for practice,and practices social distancing. No hugging,no hand shakes,no touching each other.Hand sanitizer provided even.No one who was symptomatic came to the practice. March 10th.Of those who attended 45 have now developed symptoms.27 have tested positive by 3/26. Washington state Skagit Valley Chorale, based in the rural valley north of Seattlehttps://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/c...0-people-show-up-for-practice-now-45-are-sick

When will you start posting some good news.....even a little good news; something positive?

 

[smokingman]

When will you start posting some good news.....even a little good news; something positive?

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-...cov-2-genome-is-good-news-for-a-vaccine-67319

[h=1]Relatively Stable SARS-CoV-2 Genome Is Good News for a Vaccine[/h]

 

[ghuns]

...even a little good news; something positive?

Did someone say good news?

90-year-old resident of assisted living facility survives coronavirus, heads home

 

[jsharmon7]

Without quoting several of the sudden, awful death stories, I had a question. Why is it that 98% recover, and a handful (even younger people) come in to the ED and are apparently dying in hours?

I’m in the middle with this. It’s worse than an average flu season, but it’s not apocalyptic. I trust folks like HoosierDoc and appreciate his input. I also think a couple people are so heavily-invested in their own predictions that they won’t even listen to the possibility of positive news. I think that’s a problem.

 

[Ziggidy]

^^^ Exactly

Way to much doom and gloom. This study, that study, that study proves this study wrong, false data being reported, debunked data found, scientist lied, scientist didnot lie, we'ree all gonna die soon. ER packed to the hilt, local ER slow with much supply. Not enough testing, only test when screeningis positive, only test when medical treatment could change, percent of deaths not calculated right, more people are gonna die, the wave is coming, run for the hills. More studies from here, and there, and far all different. Which model are you following, which is correct, which one is data based - evidence based. How can that be, china lied, Spain passes Italy but records differently, data is flawed.

I can go on and on. And people get angry when Trump feels good about the potential treatment drug for this virus. Data collected to date (very little) does not deny that possibility; YET....in spite of all the bogus reports and posting, people refuse to hold on to something that may be positive.

It's like some people thrive on the doom and gloom.

Here's another positive. It is being reported that more people are coming to know Christ in this difficult time. More churches have been forced to seek out technological means to reach people and it is working. This crisis is actually growing the Kingdom of God! All glory to Him.

I have decreased my time in this thread because of the never ending posting of negative posts that link to all kinds of reports that in some cases contradict other reports.
You know the author of confusion? Deception? Can anyone actually look at this entire thread and go away feeling good?

 

[jsharmon7]

I have decreased my time in this thread because of the never ending posting of negative posts that link to all kinds of reports that in some cases contradict other reports.
You know the author of confusion? Deception? Can anyone actually look at this entire thread and go away feeling good?

I agree. People are free to post whatever they wish, but hopefully those on the fence can sift through the BS, look at previous post history of some contributors, and maybe have a little hope. There are actual medical professionals posting in this thread, and I appreciate that information.

 

[smokingman]

^^^ Exactly

Way to much doom and gloom. This study, that study, that study proves this study wrong, false data being reported, debunked data found, scientist lied, scientist didnot lie, we'ree all gonna die soon. ER packed to the hilt, local ER slow with much supply. Not enough testing, only test when screeningis positive, only test when medical treatment could change, percent of deaths not calculated right, more people are gonna die, the wave is coming, run for the hills. More studies from here, and there, and far all different. Which model are you following, which is correct, which one is data based - evidence based. How can that be, china lied, Spain passes Italy but records differently, data is flawed.

I can go on and on. And people get angry when Trump feels good about the potential treatment drug for this virus. Data collected to date (very little) does not deny that possibility; YET....in spite of all the bogus reports and posting, people refuse to hold on to something that may be positive.

It's like some people thrive on the doom and gloom.

Here's another positive. It is being reported that more people are coming to know Christ in this difficult time. More churches have been forced to seek out technological means to reach people and it is working. This crisis is actually growing the Kingdom of God! All glory to Him.

I have decreased my time in this thread because of the never ending posting of negative posts that link to all kinds of reports that in some cases contradict other reports.
You know the author of confusion? Deception? Can anyone actually look at this entire thread and go away feeling good?

For me it is not about doom and gloom. It is also not about feeling good or bad.

I look at reality. Feelings have almost nothing to do with it. My approach is logic and reason based.

I also think the world can be a better place than it is. I think we can come out of this a better country than we are now.

Feeling good and having false hope is not going to get us there.Doom and gloom are no going to get us there either.

Accepting the reality of the situation and getting things done can.

As for your religious beliefs,a topic I rarely touch on. I am glad you see what you feel is a positive thing happening,that you believe will help others.

I have said it many times and I mean it.

Be well,be safe,and you are loved.

 

[T.Lex]

When will you start posting some good news.....even a little good news; something positive?

Smokingman and I are yin and yang on that.

I'm waiting for yesterday's INGO-official numbers, but it looks like there will be support for an inference that the death curve is flattening. That is, the increase in deaths is not as steep as it had been; we are coming in under the average increase. Still a new record high potentially, but not by a 1.5x kind of number. The doubling might be shifting from 2-3 days to 3-4 days (hopefully on its way to longer periods).

Now, a couple caveats to that:
- We are always 1 day away from a reporting spike as the different jurisdictions formalize reporting. Italy has had spikes that throw off any sense of getting control. I'm just going by the reported numbers.
- It is worth reminding people that "flattening the curve" does not necessarily mean "fewer dead people." The goal is to spare the medical system from being overwhelmed. There's an assumption that fewer people die, but that is no guarantee. You can have 100k people die in a week, or 100k people die in a month. You still have 100k dead people, but the latter scenario is less of a strain on the infrastructure.

Color me cautiously optimistic, but still cynical that we're getting real numbers.

 

[ditcherman]

Without quoting several of the sudden, awful death stories, I had a question. Why is it that 98% recover, and a handful (even younger people) come in to the ED and are apparently dying in hours?

I’m in the middle with this. It’s worse than an average flu season, but it’s not apocalyptic. I trust folks like HoosierDoc and appreciate his input. I also think a couple people are so heavily-invested in their own predictions that they won’t even listen to the possibility of positive news. I think that’s a problem.

Great post.
I think if you knew the answer to this you could rule the world right now, or at least buy a bigger boat.

I see me and you on different sides of this from the beginning, but even our opinions are changing, coming towards each other. I still feel it’s dire, but ‘maybe’ not apocalyptic.

”We” can be in the middle, but the truth is the truth. Isn’t that what many of our ilk have lamented for so long, that people try to write their own truth? Truth is coming to smack us in the face, and maybe when this is over we can be better people on the other side, weed out the sources of bs that have for so long plagued us. I’m probably too optimistic.

I trust hoosierdoc to be telling us what he’s really seeing in his er, he’s not lying about it, even it comes across as snarky. I see why the snark though, a week ago the worst case scenario spoken of was so far removed... I think he’s just a couple of weeks behind these bad reports were seeing. I’d be happy to be wrong.

Anyway, I see what I have come to call the “deniers” as invested in their opinion as much as the the WCS folks. We latch on to something and most people do not have the capacity to easily change their mind once it’s made up.
Be open, be humble.

 

[smokingman]

Great post.
I think if you knew the answer to this you could rule the world right now, or at least buy a bigger boat.

I see me and you on different sides of this from the beginning, but even our opinions are changing, coming towards each other. I still feel it’s dire, but ‘maybe’ not apocalyptic.

”We” can be in the middle, but the truth is the truth. Isn’t that what many of our ilk have lamented for so long, that people try to write their own truth? Truth is coming to smack us in the face, and maybe when this is over we can be better people on the other side, weed out the sources of bs that have for so long plagued us. I’m probably too optimistic.

I trust hoosierdoc to be telling us what he’s really seeing in his er, he’s not lying about it, even it comes across as snarky. I see why the snark though, a week ago the worst case scenario spoken of was so far removed... I think he’s just a couple of weeks behind these bad reports were seeing. I’d be happy to be wrong.

Anyway, I see what I have come to call the “deniers” as invested in their opinion as much as the the WCS folks. We latch on to something and most people do not have the capacity to easily change their mind once it’s made up.
Be open, be humble.

Reminds me of January 31st in the original thread.
When I said "Go about your life as you normally would,just take a few extra precautions".
From there what I read in scientific journals changed my mind. By 2/6/2020 my opinion on where we where heading radically changed based on evidence. It was not an easy adjustment for me.
I was never a just the flu believer once China started locking down cities,but I also originally though this was something more like ebola that would effect
"over there" and not my daily life.That changed the more I understood what this was.

 

[Snapdragon]

What we get out of this thread depends on what each of us are looking for. There are several camps.

1) Glass half empty
2) Glass half full
3) I don't care how much is in the glass, I just want to know what's in it
4) It doesn't matter what is in the glass if we're all going to die
5) You guys are all full of ****, only I can truly see how much is in the glass
6) Bacon

 

[T.Lex]

It just all depends on what each of us are looking for in this thread. There are several camps.

1) Glass half empty
2) Glass half full
3) I don't care how much is in the glass, I just want to know what's in it
4) It doesn't matter what is in the glass if we're all going to die
5) You guys are all full of ****, only I can truly see how much is in the glass
6) Bacon

My amateur statistics spreadsheet includes a column of bacon. I keep adding more rows to get more bacon.

 

[jsx1043]

A very wise man in the first CV thread said this, and I agree with him:

”Even with that all that information we have at our fingertips, we know virtually nothing. There’s a metric $h!t-ton of data there, but not even the “experts” can agree on what it means. And what we do know, the media is spinning to suit it’s narrative and agenda. We can argue about case fatality rates and how long it’s been here and how bad it is versus the flu or the long-term damage it causes to the lungs but honestly - we know next to nothing.

Where this goes from here, and it’s long term effects are yet to be seen. While some people are arguing over the rules of checkers, others are out there playing 4D chess to make this thing go the direction they want. It may not be asymmetric warfare, but those are the rules we’re playing by. Stop standing in formation and being taken out by musket balls.

Gather intel. Formulate whatever plan works for you. Make wise decisions. But by God, stand together, because this ride is just starting and we don’t know who’s driving. The only thing we have control over is what’s on the ground, right now. And how much bacon we have on hand.”

 

[churchmouse]

A very wise man in the first CV thread said this, and I agree with him:

”Even with that all that information we have at our fingertips, we know virtually nothing. There’s a metric $h!t-ton of data there, but not even the “experts” can agree on what it means. And what we do know, the media is spinning to suit it’s narrative and agenda. We can argue about case fatality rates and how long it’s been here and how bad it is versus the flu or the long-term damage it causes to the lungs but honestly - we know next to nothing.

Where this goes from here, and it’s long term effects are yet to be seen. While some people are arguing over the rules of checkers, others are out there playing 4D chess to make this thing go the direction they want. It may not be asymmetric warfare, but those are the rules we’re playing by. Stop standing in formation and being taken out by musket balls.

Gather intel. Formulate whatever plan works for you. Make wise decisions. But by God, stand together, because this ride is just starting and we don’t know who’s driving. The only thing we have control over is what’s on the ground, right now. And how much bacon we have on hand.”

And on top of all this it has become a political football.

 

[T.Lex]

Ok, shout out to qwerty for his update to his chart. (I think I know where he gets it, and it is more than just INGO-official, but I'm going to keep calling it that.)

Bad news: a new record high in deaths yesterday - 268.

Not-as-bad-as-it-looks insight: the last 3 days totals were 227, 247, and 268. Statistically speaking, that's pretty flat.

Forecasting-wise, it is way too early to draw any conclusions. This is just an inference based on 2 periods of measurement (change from Tues-Wed, change from Wed-Thurs).

In the real world, brief plateaus and fluctuations are part of the puzzle. (Various algorithms get involved.)

Just throwing this out there.

 

[smokingman]

And on top of all this it has become a political football.

Some guy on the internet wrote about this possibly happening almost 2 months ago.

"Then the reason people.They already have something in mind to blame.Something like say a vaccines,but it could have been anything.Someone diet.Someone created a bio weapon.Some corporation.A government.Even climate change.(I should have added politics)As long as there is a reason they can wrap their head around,they will believe it.
Point being they think there is a reason it is happening,that they understand.It gives them someone to blame,making them feel superior,or safer because of the information they believe.It makes the disaster understandable to them.

 

[jd4320t]

My northeast side of Indy pharmaceutical testing equipment employer is really letting me down. Non essential people are home. Essential Production workers and maintenance are still plugging away. I haven't seen or heard from my supervisor or manager in two weeks now. Last night our Senior Site Director Skyped us and gave us the same line of bs. We are important, customers depend on us bla bla bla.

Some of my coworkers are choosing to stay home and use sick time or approved paid leave. I'm saving all of my time since I don't have any young kids at home and I don't have regular in person communication with older family members.

I believe they know as soon as one of us tests positive production will stop. They have all but said it. They are just using us as long as they can. They don't care about our family or loved ones.

I won't forget how they've acted during this. I won't be staying at this job much longer. It just isn't worth it to be just a number.

 

[Ziggidy]

What we get out of this thread depends on what each of us are looking for. There are several camps.

1) Glass half empty
2) Glass half full
3) I don't care how much is in the glass, I just want to know what's in it
4) It doesn't matter what is in the glass if we're all going to die
5) You guys are all full of ****, only I can truly see how much is in the glass
6) Bacon

Bacon! Always the answer!!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk