We just over took Italy in infections.
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
If Italy weren't about the size of California, that would be much more concerning.
We just over took Italy in infections.
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
Our lives will NEVER be the same again. Nor the ENTIRE WORLD. Period. Next time somebody coughs, you are going to look around. I will never shake hands again. Seriously.
...with 6 times the population.
We should pass China before the end of the night....with 6 times the population.
My model ignores them.
Well, we can back into that number by using the total identified infections and taking 80% of that.
For me, this is an exercise in granular, day-to-day forecasting. Professional meteorologists look at highs and lows and high altitude currents to project 3-4 days.
I'm the guy in his back yard looking at the horizon to try and tell what the weather will be for the next hour.
Seriously, my assumptions are that the increase in reported dead people in the relatively recent past can indicate in the relatively near future how many dead people there will be.
(It was also a bit in response to people saying, "This can't be that bad." so as to illustrate exponential growth.)
Really, I only look at the dead people stat, then somewhat cross-check that against the total number of infections. That's part of the reason I think deaths are under-reported.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/On BNO the-latest-coronavirus-cases , worldwide, the reported recovered is 114495 and the deaths are 23607.
Where is the data you are looking at represent?
And we aren't playing Bergamo in the soccer finals. If we are, I'm not going.
So, now really thinking outside the box.... what is the difference in what you are modeling with what is being reported? If you then push the time earlier, what date would make it flatten out? Hope that makes sense...but I am in the group that this has been out and about the US population more that what is normally being assumed.
When do we get to form up and go out on raids in a convey of Mad Max style vehicles? I'm getting bored.
Once we are safely past the peak I can tell when it was.
Our lives will NEVER be the same again. Nor the ENTIRE WORLD. Period. Next time somebody coughs, you are going to look around. I will never shake hands again. Seriously.
I usually just do the Vulcan wave thing. I aint shaking anyone's hand. I'm not sure I can get back to not caring about germs. I think about what I touch: gas nozzle. products in the store. cart. Even things at home. I think of all the ways the thing I'm touching might have been infected. And it makes me want to wash my hands.
I see your point for mortality. But using your same parameters of testing the most severely symptomatic, and the most at-risk would we be looking at the lower limit for R0?Once we start testing more and more we will find all the asymptomatic infected that don't even know it as well as those who rode it out at home and were never counted before. This would increase the body of positive tests.