Coronavirus II

[KittySlayer]

New York = New Jersey???

Unable to research tonight for a decision tomorrow morning. But I can always read internet advice in the morning.

So I am running our building with a skeleton crew so the bulk of our people can still work remotely. Some A-hole who finds remote work too inconvenient chose to come to work everyday this week. Come to find out their spouse just returned from a trip to New Jersey. This A-hole did not think it was important enough to stay home or inform anyone. In my mind it is like Indianapolis is an epicenter but I was in Carmel so there is no risk and I am okay. Sleeping at an empty house we have tonight so I don't expose my wife until I have time to gather more information. My wife is almost as mad as me.

Advice? Knowledge? Opinions? Thanks.

 

[Bennettjh]

New York = New Jersey???

Unable to research tonight for a decision tomorrow morning. But I can always read internet advice in the morning.

So I am running our building with a skeleton crew so the bulk of our people can still work remotely. Some A-hole who finds remote work too inconvenient chose to come to work everyday this week. Come to find out their spouse just returned from a trip to New Jersey. This A-hole did not think it was important enough to stay home or inform anyone. In my mind it is like Indianapolis is an epicenter but I was in Carmel so there is no risk and I am okay. Sleeping at an empty house we have tonight so I don't expose my wife until I have time to gather more information. My wife is almost as mad as me.

Advice? Knowledge? Opinions? Thanks.

I hate to hear that. There's always one in every crowd. It doesn't APPEAR that N.J. is as bad as N.Y. but still too close for comfort.

I'm obviously no expert, my opinion would be to isolate and see if the spouse or co-worker get sick.

 

[maxwelhse]

New York = New Jersey???

Unable to research tonight for a decision tomorrow morning. But I can always read internet advice in the morning.

So I am running our building with a skeleton crew so the bulk of our people can still work remotely. Some A-hole who finds remote work too inconvenient chose to come to work everyday this week. Come to find out their spouse just returned from a trip to New Jersey. This A-hole did not think it was important enough to stay home or inform anyone. In my mind it is like Indianapolis is an epicenter but I was in Carmel so there is no risk and I am okay. Sleeping at an empty house we have tonight so I don't expose my wife until I have time to gather more information. My wife is almost as mad as me.

Advice? Knowledge? Opinions? Thanks.

Since you can quarantine from your family, I suppose you probably should. Sorry to hear that bozo put you in this spot.

 

[Ingomike]

An article chronicling the errors in forecasting that the popular site Covid Act Now has made and faults in the modeling they have done. This data is cited by many governors, mayors and the media.

A scan of statements made by media, state governors, local leaders, county judges, and more show many relying on the same source, an online mapping tool called COVID Act Now. The website says it is “built to enable political leaders to quickly make decisions in their Coronavirus response informed by best available data and modeling.”


An interactive map provides users a catastrophic forecast for each state, should they wait to implement COVID Act Now’s suggested strict measures to “flatten the curve.” But a closer look at how many of COVID Act Now’s predictions have already fallen short, and how they became a ubiquitous resource across the country overnight, suggests something more sinister.

Among other issues, COVID Act Now lists the “Known Limitations” of their model. Here are a few that seem especially alarming, considering they generate a model for each individual state:

• Many of the inputs into this model (hospitalization rate, hospitalization rate) are based on early estimates that are likely to be wrong.
  ​
• Demographics, populations, and hospital bed counts are outdated. Demographics for the USA as a whole are used, rather than specific to each state.
  ​
• The model does not adjust for the population density, culturally-determined interaction frequency and closeness, humidity, temperature, etc in calculating R0.
  ​
• This is not a node-based analysis, and thus assumes everyone spreads the disease at the same rate. In practice, there are some folks who are ‘super-spreaders,’ and others who are almost isolated.
  ​

Perhaps the goal of COVID Act Now was never to provide accurate information, but to scare citizens and government officials into to implementing rash and draconian measures. The creators even admit as much with the caveat that “this model is designed to drive fast action, not predict the future.”

Read the difference between reality and their projections so far here...


https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/2...nicking-officials-into-ill-advised-lockdowns/

 

[jsx1043]

An article chronicling the errors in forecasting that the popular site Covid Act Now has made and faults in the modeling they have done. This data is cited by many governors, mayors and the media.

A scan of statements made by media, state governors, local leaders, county judges, and more show many relying on the same source, an online mapping tool called COVID Act Now. The website says it is “built to enable political leaders to quickly make decisions in their Coronavirus response informed by best available data and modeling.”


An interactive map provides users a catastrophic forecast for each state, should they wait to implement COVID Act Now’s suggested strict measures to “flatten the curve.” But a closer look at how many of COVID Act Now’s predictions have already fallen short, and how they became a ubiquitous resource across the country overnight, suggests something more sinister.

/snip/

Perhaps the goal of COVID Act Now was never to provide accurate information, but to scare citizens and government officials into to implementing rash and draconian measures. The creators even admit as much with the caveat that “this model is designed to drive fast action, not predict the future.”

Read the difference between reality and their projections so far here...


https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/2...nicking-officials-into-ill-advised-lockdowns/

I’ve seen that one in all of my research as well and thought similarly on the jumps they were making.

The real question is: “Who’s behind the website?”

”Founders of the site include Democratic Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and three Silicon Valley tech workers and Democratic activists — Zachary Rosen, Max Henderson, and Igor Kofman — who are all also donors to various Democratic campaigns and political organizations since 2016. Henderson and Kofman donated to the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016, while Rosen donated to the Democratic National Committee, recently resigned Democratic Rep. Katie Hill, and other Democratic candidates.”

 

[Ingomike]

I’ve seen that one in all of my research as well and thought similarly on the jumps they were making.

The real question is: “Who’s behind the website?”

”Founders of the site include Democratic Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and three Silicon Valley tech workers and Democratic activists — Zachary Rosen, Max Henderson, and Igor Kofman — who are all also donors to various Democratic campaigns and political organizations since 2016. Henderson and Kofman donated to the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016, while Rosen donated to the Democratic National Committee, recently resigned Democratic Rep. Katie Hill, and other Democratic candidates.”

Definitely politics as usual. One of the principals was creating a game to defeat Trump that seems to have been shelved now.

 

[jsharmon7]

I think we need to continue being cautious with this virus, but this is positive:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

 

[Ingomike]

We are beginning to see other qualified Dr's saying that the models are "orders of magnitude too high". Two Stanford professors had an article in WSJ explaining just that. An Oxford epidemiologist also has made similar comments in international media.

I think we need to continue being cautious with this virus, but this is positive:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

That is the one I was referring to but couldn't post link. Thanks...

 

[Dead Duck]

Does anyone have a bead on those MASH units I keep hearing about? In or outside of Indiana. Also is there a web site that has this info?

 

[BugI02]

Actually "Marshall Law" is the legal firm of Stephen Marshall, an ambulance chaser in New Mexico.

I thought Marshall Law was what we imposed while implementing the Marshall Plan

 

[T.Lex]

Today (Wednesday) looks like it will set a new record high for deaths. Even if some of the aggregators' number drop off, it'll still be as bad as Tuesday.

The peak, it has not yet passed.

 

[T.Lex]

I think we need to continue being cautious with this virus, but this is positive:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

As an unfrozen caveman amateur statistical epidemiologist, the "orders of magnitude too high" line is clickbait. It depends on which prediction you're talking about and when.

If we did nothing? Then MAYBE one order of magnitude too high. Hundreds of thousands, but not millions. With the precautions? Hopefully we can keep it under 10,000, but almost definitely under 100,000.

 

[Ingomike]

As an unfrozen caveman amateur statistical epidemiologist, the "orders of magnitude too high" line is clickbait. It depends on which prediction you're talking about and when.

If we did nothing? Then MAYBE one order of magnitude too high. Hundreds of thousands, but not millions. With the precautions? Hopefully we can keep it under 10,000, but almost definitely under 100,000.

So somewhere in the "flu" range to double.

CDC also estimates deaths in the United States using mathematical modeling. CDC estimates that from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014, influenza-associated deaths in the United States ranged from a low of 12,000 (during 2011-2012) to a high of 56,000 (during 2012-2013)

Sorry, but not equal to the damage of killing the economy...

 

[indykid]

I thought Marshall Law was what we imposed while implementing the Marshall Plan

All this as opposed to Marital law which has one rule, for the husband to understand the one answer to his wife - "Yes dear".

 

[smokingman]

[video=youtube;8XPiHx8RgBM]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XPiHx8RgBM[/video]












I like his data and science based approach.

 

[smokingman]

.https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...S-dies-48.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailus

Yes the article includes images of doctors and nurses at Mount Sinai West wearing trash bags as ppe.

[h=2]Nursing manager at Mount Sinai West hospital in NYC - where staff were forced to wear TRASH BAGS as protective equipment - dies of coronavirus at age 48[/h]

• Kious Kelly, 48, died at Mount Sinai West in Manhattan on Tuesday night
• He was also an assistant nursing manager at the hospital prior to his death
• Photos have circulated on Facebook showing nurses there wearing trash bags
• Extreme shortage of personal protective equipment has hit hospitals hard

 

[smokingman]

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/new-york-coronavirus-cases-updates.html


Health officials in New York City and Los Angeles County are signaling a change in local strategy when it comes to coronavirus testing, recommending that doctors avoid testing patients except in cases where a test result would significantly change the course of treatment.
A news release from the Los Angeles Department of Public Health this week advised doctors not to test those experiencing only mild respiratory symptoms unless “a diagnostic result will change clinical management or inform public health response.
At about the same time, the New York City Department of Health directed all healthcare facilities to immediately stop testing non-hospitalized patients for Covid-19.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news...0-intl-hnk/h_78c431662464112a27434663a0860cdc

It will cause my worst case numbers,especially if they ease lockdowns. No testing=no contact tracing =no stopping the spread.

Watch for the changes that will take place in the media. I am just taking a stab at it,but given logic it is where the message is going.

Look at(any other country on earth,but the USA) and how bad it is somewhere other than where you are.

Look at this study(fake studies,and bad science to down play what covid-19 is doing).More promise of treatments that work or vaccines(much like the now proved false malaria drug).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...no-better-than-regular-covid-19-care-in-study

Less criticism of responses be it state or federal governments,but open season for attacks on individual people.

You will not hear more stories like the ones coming out of New York with entire families in intensive care units together. You are not supposed to see things like this anymore. Yes that is one family 4 dead 3 still in ICU.

https://www.insider.com/new-jersey-...al-condition-relative-died-coronavirus-2020-3

Less focus on what is being done to help stop covid-19 and more about needing you to go back to work.

Cheer leading. This or that is great. The topic really does not matter. Shoveling any news they can to bring up lower moral,while ignoring reality altogether.

I suspect covid-19 will not be front page news in the next few weeks(I give it 3-4 weeks before it is off of front pages).

Yes,I still expect some of the things I posted about. Supply line issues,manufacturing issues,and I have a growing concern about food production facilities as I have seen many articles on workers walking out of them in other countries because the companies had no measures in place to reduce covid-19 cases(much like the now 8 shut down Amazon warehouses). Also note the link of the website,then look at the article title,it has already been edited multiple times.
https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...zon-warehouses-test-positive-for-coronavirus"

Things that have not been issues will become issues. Things like funerals are already not happening in California,NY,and NJ. If they are allowed it is immediate family only. Grief will need a new process.


The anger stage after the acceptance stage is part of the reason I am in no longer in Indianapolis.When a family member dies and they tell them some bs reason,when the family knows it was covid-19 it will not go well.

So where are we now? You are probably sitting at home like over 50% of Americans at this point. Wondering ...no wanting things to be back to normal.
They will use that against you in every way imaginable. Things are not going to be normal,but if you look around in say 2 weeks you might not realize it anymore.It may look normal.The alarms from most of the media will have stopped,you may even find yourself back at work.

Protect yourself and your family. Do anything you can to lessen your risk. Have masks? Wear them. Get packages or do shopping,treat everything you touch as infected and sanitize it(1/3 a cup of bleach per gallon of water works just fine).
Try to not be in confined spaces(this to me includes sharing air with anyone else at this point),and if you have to be wear a mask.I am not certain of how the spin on this will play out. I can tell you for certain they are slowing testing,and at this point it is unlikely we will follow other countries in testing and isolating cases.

It will not be the end of our country or the human race,but I am also fairly certain that soon you will no longer hear about how bad things have become. With the war on information(infomatics as the WHO calls it) the message you hear will be what they want you to hear.

Please take care of yourself and those you love. I know some of you have situational awareness. You need pandemic awareness. Everything you do in the coming months,and I mean everything should be measured and weighed. Is it worth risking your life for?Yes our reality has changed,if you do not adapt or reject accepting that you may just be another number somewhere.

 

[jamil]

Do you seriously believe Trump gets his information only from bad websites and that he doesn't have expert advisors and teams of people behind them on damn near every subject known? Have you been in close proximity to some contagious TDS patients recently?

What? I didn’t say Trump only gets his information from such sources. I saw the press conference live. He had a an expert right there saying that it’s premature to claim those meds were effective. And Trump was right there saying they were. So he had an expert on the same stage, yet Trump couldn’t defer to the expert. Sometimes the people you respect are full of ****. It’s good to be able to admit when they are. Trump was full if ****. Not on everything. But in that he was full of **** for overriding an expert in the field with his own irrational beliefs.

 

[smokingman]

What? I didn’t say Trump only gets his information from such sources. I saw the press conference live. He had a an expert right there saying that it’s premature to claim those meds were effective. And Trump was right there saying they were. So he had an expert on the same stage, yet Trump couldn’t defer to the expert. Sometimes the people you respect are full of ****. It’s good to be able to admit when they are. Trump was full if ****. Not on everything. But in that he was full of **** for overriding an expert in the field with his own irrational beliefs.

Agreed. I also found out the study he is quoting had been ripped apart now. Not because it proved less than effective(it proved disappointing with no difference to placebo),but because they removed 4 of the original cases in the trial,and did not use them in percentages helped. Why did they remove them? Because all 4 died.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1243059074150871040 Head of Harvard epidemiology and formerly at John Hopkins University hospital.
He points out many flaws in the WHO preliminary study.


Great article on the grasshopper vs the ant.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/grasshoppers-are-swarming-mad-you-are-prepared-crash

 

[smokingman]

https://www.nytimes.com/video/nyreg...tal-queens.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes