Coronavirus II

[Alpo]

Bingo.

My Bundy and Bach Mercedes II trombones were made there as was my wife's Gemeinhardt flute. Sad to see that industry be decimated....which brings us Bach to China....

BACH to China.

Har!

I am buying Japanese acoustic guitars at the moment. I'd buy Japanese grand pianos if I could, but my house and budget aren't set up for that.

But, I'm a Yamaha fan....except for motorcycles.

 

[maxwelhse]

Well, you don't have data. You have beliefs. The music industry is about the same size as the RV industry. The economic effect on communities as a result of a touring musician vs a trailer pulled by Al & Sally, is obvious.

You including all the Taylor Swifts, record companies, and executives out there with that data? Because I'd think you'd almost have to if you're making that comparison. I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'm having a rough time imagining all the bar room and gig players that you're concerned about bailing out are pulling down billions of dollars annually. Even the instrument manufacturers employee's are going to get the same checks and UI as everybody else.

 

[MarkC]

Let's see the final bill. It's difficult to debate this just based on philosophy.

There is 1/2 trillion dollars being spent on "business". As yet undefined. So, let's watch and see what happens.

The entire music industry is only $20 billion or so in the US, so while we can argue about Johnny the guitar player, it's probably of greater value to see what will happen with hotels, cruise lines and airlines.

Definitely; when things lighten up, Johnny will get his gigs again, and I hope he's still available to play. I agree that the travel-based industries are in trouble.

 

[LockStocksAndBarrel]

A Winnebago is essential!

https://rv-pro.com/news/rvia-indiana-executive-order-lists-rv-businesses-essential

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Golf courses are still open, which is where I'll be tomorrow.

Not expecting to get a misdemeanor.

 

[mmpsteve]

My point was, the Arts and Humanities monies are going to go to fat-cat friends and donors, so A vs B are moot arguments.

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[maxwelhse]

My point was, the Arts and Humanities monies are going to go to fat-cat friends and donors, so A vs B are moot arguments.

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Yeah, but we're not gonna let Alpo off the hook that easy... He's trying to bailout Taylor Swift!

 

[Kdf101]

I’m not a big poster, mainly a reader, but I am hopeful. I thinks things will probably get worse before they get better, but I don’t believe the worst case scenarios will happen. Why? I think we have a huge advantage over the rest of the world in that private enterprise is still King here. We have seen examples on this very board of people way smarter than me offering up ventilator designs and such. That isn’t so common other places. We have and will take a huge hit, but I think we will come out better than most.

 

[HoughMade]

BACH to China.

Har!

I am buying Japanese acoustic guitars at the moment. I'd buy Japanese grand pianos if I could, but my house and budget aren't set up for that.

But, I'm a Yamaha fan....except for motorcycles.

Ironically, my last motorcycle was a Yamaha, but it was an old one...and I loved it.

...but yes, Yamaha instruments, of all types, are quite nice.

The easy money in musical instruments is band instruments for students who will never play again after high school. A Chinese trombone of playable quality can be had for under $200. Not a great instrument, but good enough. Tough to sell parents on a $600 Selmer of a $1200 Bach when they can get a "Mendini" (notice the European-sounding name) for $149.

Anyhoo, back to the serious stuff.

 

[BugI02]

It looks like Tuesday may be the worst day yet for deaths in the US. Likely past the 200 mark (depending on when .gov cuts the numbers off).

ICUs, though, are filling up. Our health care system is very good at keeping people alive, even if in a medically induced coma. Not to get too clinical about this (which gets perceived as cold hearted), that helps to flatten that particular curve, too. That's also why the ventilators are needed, because there isn't a high turnover on those.

Yes, the dead would still number less than 1k. Today. But the growth curve - at the present rate - shows a steep increase. And we won't really know until the end of the week, or thereafter, if the steps on March 13 made any difference.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate
Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: ‘We’re going to be fine’

Three weeks later, Levitt told the China Daily News that the virus’ rate of growth had peaked. He predicted that the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China would end up around 80,000, with about 3,250 deaths.
This forecast turned out to be remarkably accurate: As of March 16, China had counted a total of 80,298 cases and 3,245 deaths — in a nation of nearly 1.4 billion people where roughly 10 million die every year.

 

[mmpsteve]

OK, I may be getting a little far afield here and I'll let it go after this, but after my last post about fat-cats and donors, I was curious about who were the heavy hitters at the JFK Center. I got to their site, then clicked on leadership, and my timing just sucks:


Oops...


We've hit a snag. But don't give up!




404 Error. This page cannot be found.
Return Home

We want you to experience all that the Kennedy Center has to offer. Please try again or contact us by phone if you're having trouble.



https://www.kennedy-center.org/about-us/leadership/


Coincidence? Oh, also, the link to their FAQ page has been removed. Just interesting. The rest of the site seems to operate just fine. ETA: every single link on their site works perfect. Every. One.

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[Kdf101]

I’m in this guys camp. I’m not a scientist, but I agree with him. The human race is capable of amazing things, especially when they are in a free market, or pseudo free market place. A hard hit yes, but not the end of times. We will come through this, bruised, but okay.

didnt link that. I’m talking about the post of Bug Io2

 

[maxwelhse]

OK, I may be getting a little far afield here and I'll let it go after this, but after my last post about fat-cats and donors, I was curious about who were the heavy hitters at the JFK Center. I got to their site, then clicked on leadership, and my timing just sucks:


Oops...


We've hit a snag. But don't give up!




404 Error. This page cannot be found.
Return Home

We want you to experience all that the Kennedy Center has to offer. Please try again or contact us by phone if you're having trouble.



https://www.kennedy-center.org/about-us/leadership/


Coincidence? Oh, also, the link to their FAQ page has been removed. Just interesting. The rest of the site seems to operate just fine.

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Google cached version leads to live links... Get 'em while they're hot.

https://www.kennedy-center.org/about-us/leadership/trustees/

 

[BugI02]

Pencil Pushers everywhere have been pushing to have less and less supply on hand.
They call it "stock on the shelf is wasted money".
Funny thing, they're never around when the S hits the fan.
I've seen a facility come to a screeching halt causing big $$$ loss in production cause I didn't have a 50 cent plug.

'Just in time' is entangled in the environment it is adapted to. The concept doesn't fare so well when the clocks/clock speed of all the systems are reset by events like this. Steady state is Maya

 

[Kdf101]

'Just in time' is entangled in the environment it is adapted to. The concept doesn't fare so well when the clocks/clock speed of all the systems are reset by events like this. Steady state is Maya

just in time only works in “normal times”. It doesn’t fare well in crisis environments.

 

[maxwelhse]

'Just in time' is entangled in the environment it is adapted to. The concept doesn't fare so well when the clocks/clock speed of all the systems are reset by events like this. Steady state is Maya

JIT doesn't work in American manufacturing anyhow, period. The entire JIT approach is was invented in Japan where all of the spokes were located exactly right next to the hub. Plus, Japan being a pretty small nation altogether, shipping stuff from one end of the big island to the other takes about a day if you actually have to go end-to-end. That doesn't work so well with a global supply chain and absolutely doesn't work in the US.

Honda Ohio has been trying to replicate their Japanese JIT structure in the US for decades, and even they can't get it right... Get ready to wait awhile on that life-saving recall, again.

 

[mmpsteve]

Google cached version leads to live links... Get 'em while they're hot.

https://www.kennedy-center.org/about-us/leadership/trustees/

That's freakin crazy max. It opens fine with your link, but if you click off that page, and then click on the leadership tab again, you get the "oops" error page.

.

 

[maxwelhse]

That's freakin crazy max. It opens fine with your link, but if you click off that page, and then click on the leadership tab again, you get the "oops" error page.

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Because I pulled that link from the Google cached version and they only nuked it from the home page, and not from orbit... like someone did it in a big hurry or something.

Never mind that stuff like the Internet Archive still exists...

Honestly, I'm with Hough Made on this one... They're gonna pork that bill up and sit on their hands until they get at least plenty of what they want, so, it doesn't even matter in the end. But, curious that link is spontaneously broken. I have no clue who any of those people are anyhow, other than the obvious honorary chairs and such.

 

[snorko]

I'm wondering why they couldn't be autoclaved (saturated-steam sterilized)? Hospitals typically have autoclaves, right?

Autoclave temps are about double that, and at pressure, which could cause some materials to break down.

Plus, something like my N95 filters for my respirator could handle the oven, but the steam of an autoclave would destroy them. So, good into to know!

I have been using a neoprene reusable mask with N99 filters. When i have used it, it gets chucked into my cpap cleaning bag and "soaked" in ozone for a couple hours.

 

[BugI02]

Indeed. I don't even look at ROK numbers. They tested the **** out of their population, so they could isolate and catch any rebound cases. They knew (pretty closely) the universe of 1st generation (or close 2d) patients and could deal with it.

That was a symptom of unpreparedness on our part. I can accept that those "early" numbers, probably up to this week, are off. We may see a "correction" very soon, with a big jump. Frankly, I would welcome that. It would look terrible, but the reality is that it would be helpful for everyone to understand what's going on and make informed decisions.

Given that ROK preparedness might be related to sharing a border with a maniacally hostile pariah state, perhaps we should encourage Canada to become Mordor