Coronavirus II

[GodFearinGunTotin]

FWIW... I don’t know anything about this source but John Lott shared it over on twitter.

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

A new epidemiological COVID-19 coronavirus model from Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group suggests the vast majority of people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 suffer little or no illness.

https://macdailynews.com/2020/03/25...rity-of-infected-suffer-little-or-no-illness/

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

https://fox59.com/news/federal-officials-reach-deal-on-2-trillion-aid-package/

A deal has been reached, apparently. Contains no reports on the previously reported democrat graft, slush funds, and reshaping measures. I’m sure the republicans caved to get the deal.

 

[churchmouse]

https://fox59.com/news/federal-officials-reach-deal-on-2-trillion-aid-package/

A deal has been reached, apparently. Contains no reports on the previously reported democrat graft, slush funds, and reshaping measures. I’m sure the republicans caved to get the deal.

Well of course they did. The left has the media well in pocket. The pressure is on.

 

[smokingman]

FWIW... I don’t know anything about this source but John Lott shared it over on twitter.

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

A new epidemiological COVID-19 coronavirus model from Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group suggests the vast majority of people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 suffer little or no illness.

https://macdailynews.com/2020/03/25...rity-of-infected-suffer-little-or-no-illness/

That is an apple product advertising blog,not really a new source.They state this clearly.
"[FONT=&quot]MacDailyNews has published over 70,000 Apple related articles"
[/FONT]https://macdailynews.com/thank_you_for_supporting_our_independent_tech_blog/

The post and linked "study" are simply the side wanting production back up and running and things back to "normal" pushing back against government shutdowns.

If you pay enough you can get a modeler to give you any stats you want.

Ask those who have pushed global warming,er climate change,uh....new ice age.

Point being do not believe a model that is pushing for something someone wants that bears no resemblance to the reality.

In Great Britain the reality is deaths are rising along with people being hospitalized. If that model was in any way accurate then numbers would not be rising daily.

 

[Expat]

I see the RV/trailer makers are still working this morning. The usual traffic seems to be heading in to the factory area.

 

[smokingman]

https://fox59.com/news/federal-officials-reach-deal-on-2-trillion-aid-package/

A deal has been reached, apparently. Contains no reports on the previously reported democrat graft, slush funds, and reshaping measures. I’m sure the republicans caved to get the deal.

Possibly.

While the final bill text hasn't been released, some of the areas have been debated behind closed doors for days. Pelosi said in an interview with CNN's Dana Bash on Tuesday that "many of the provisions in there have been greatly improved because of negotiation," while Schumer said the legislation will have "unemployment insurance on steroids."McConnell praised the emerging deal as a win for Republicans as well, saying, "We are close to a bill that takes our bold Republican framework, integrates further ideas from both parties and delivers huge progress."Pelosi suggested on Tuesday that she is hoping to avoid bringing the full House back to Washington to vote on the package, seeking to pass it through unanimous consent instead. But any individual member can block such a move, creating uncertainty over whether that will be feasible.
Another option may be for the House to approve the package by voice vote as opposed to holding a recorded roll call vote.

See the problem?
The Democrats want this to pass WITHOUT having to return to DC. Something that is currently against all rules of the house,but could be bypassed several ways.

Saying this is a done deal is a bit much honestly.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/stimulus-senate-action-coronavirus/index.html

Stock Markets demanded a bill be done though. Truth,reality,they do not matter. They need a reason to open green(well the Fed needs it,the 1.3 trillion a day it is pumping into the market and 750 billion in mbs,and 500 billion plus in US treasuries have nothing to do with futures back in the green...nope look over there...the senate did something...closes curtain" enjoy your 2nd green opening of the dow this week.

 

[Ark]

Pencil Pushers everywhere have been pushing to have less and less supply on hand.
They call it "stock on the shelf is wasted money".
Funny thing, they're never around when the S hits the fan.
I've seen a facility come to a screeching halt causing big $$$ loss in production cause I didn't have a 50 cent plug.

Too right. Makes me furious to see them asking for handouts from people's personal PPE preps (say that five times fast, lol).

After the Cold War, all the Civil Defense stuff went out the window and we stopped preparing for mass casualty events or pandemics. Suddenly that stock on the shelf needed to be sacrificed on the alter of cost-cutting and "lean production". Why worry, you and your pencil-pushing buddies get to show 10% cost cutting, pocket 2% in bonus for a job well done, and you're off doing the same thing at another firm before the other shoe drops.

 

[smokingman]

Possibly.

While the final bill text hasn't been released, some of the areas have been debated behind closed doors for days. Pelosi said in an interview with CNN's Dana Bash on Tuesday that "many of the provisions in there have been greatly improved because of negotiation," while Schumer said the legislation will have "unemployment insurance on steroids."McConnell praised the emerging deal as a win for Republicans as well, saying, "We are close to a bill that takes our bold Republican framework, integrates further ideas from both parties and delivers huge progress."Pelosi suggested on Tuesday that she is hoping to avoid bringing the full House back to Washington to vote on the package, seeking to pass it through unanimous consent instead. But any individual member can block such a move, creating uncertainty over whether that will be feasible.
Another option may be for the House to approve the package by voice vote as opposed to holding a recorded roll call vote.

See the problem?
The Democrats want this to pass WITHOUT having to return to DC. Something that is currently against all rules of the house,but could be bypassed several ways.

Saying this is a done deal is a bit much honestly.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/stimulus-senate-action-coronavirus/index.html

Stock Markets demanded a bill be done though. Truth,reality,they do not matter. They need a reason to open green(well the Fed needs it,the 1.3 trillion a day it is pumping into the market and 750 billion in mbs,and 500 billion plus in US treasuries have nothing to do with futures back in the green...nope look over there...the senate did something...closes curtain" enjoy your 2nd green opening of the dow this week.

European stock markets pushed firmly higher Wednesday, with investors breathing a sigh of relief that U.S. policymakers have managed to come together to deliver a massive rescue package to bolster the country’s beleaguered economy.

https://www.investing.com/news/stoc...e-pushes-higher-on-stimulus-agreement-2120734

[video=youtube;rKHh3EIFcZw]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKHh3EIFcZw[/video]

 

[Alpo]

https://fox59.com/news/federal-officials-reach-deal-on-2-trillion-aid-package/

A deal has been reached, apparently. Contains no reports on the previously reported democrat graft, slush funds, and reshaping measures. I’m sure the republicans caved to get the deal.

Seems to me, the "slush" fund was what Treasury had with a 1/2 Trillion blank check. The republicans finally relented and agreed to oversight, to prohibiting share buybacks by companies receiving these funds and a few other details.

The overreach by democrats will be in the House, not the Senate. Film at 11:00

 

[ditcherman]

Dont forget to exempt this student loan forgiveness from the IRS. Based on my experience (as a 3rd party), any time a lender forgives your loan (outside a bankruptcy) the IRS considers that enrichment income. Visa writes off $5,000 of $7,000 in credit card debt so you can manage to pay off the rest? They will send you a 1099 for the $5,000 they forgave, and you'll have to pay income tax on it. Now imagine getting a 1099 for $150,000. Whats the tax rate on that?

And suddenly, I’m all for it. Help teach the free stuff crowd that nothing’s free.

 

[Dead Duck]

Prince Charles has the coronavirus? Gee, that's too bad.





'Prince Charles tests positive for coronavirus'

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/prince-charles-tests-positive-for-coronavirus

 

[Thor]

Prince Charles has the coronavirus? Gee, that's too bad./QUOTE]

Karma.

 

[SwikLS]

just imagine if Ginsburg got this thing and died.

all hell would break loose in DC.

 

[Dead Duck]

just imagine if Ginsburg got this thing and died.

all hell would break loose in DC.

I don't think dead people can get the virus.

 

[smokingman]

Spain's death toll climbs: Spain has overtaken China in the number of Covid-19 deaths, rising to the second highest worldwide after Italy.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-25-20-intl-hnk/index.html
https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/25...hina-in-the-overall-number-of-covid-19-deaths

Spain is testing so many,and finding cases.They may pass the USA in total confirmed positive cases in the next 24 hours. They just passed China's fake death total.

Spain also has one of the highest proportion of healthcare workers affected by coronavirus, with over 5,400 confirmed cases, according to data from Tuesday.


Italy has over double the fictional numbers out of China for deaths at 6820 (3/24/2020)

 

[Thor]

Well, Chi-Coms reported deaths anyway. It's hard to increase the numbers of infected if you don't test, it's hard to increase the numbers of dead if you don't admit them to the hospitals...or maybe it's easy to ignore if you only care about world domination and life means nothing to you.

 

[T.Lex]

Midweek update on forecasts. Yesterday, by INGO's official count, the death toll nationally was 227. That's a new high number (the previous was 134, set the day before). We are about 12 days into the national stay-home-if-you-can-but-we're-not-ordering-it status. That seems to be the "meat" of the presentation of serious symptoms. That is, if someone was exposed on 3/12, they have likely started having symptoms, maybe severe.

I've added another modeling parameter, a straight-line 1.25x multiplier. The 1.5 was too high (running about a 15% error rate) and even the dynamic L33 was usually high (about a 3% error rate). The 1.25 provides a "best case" comparator. Applying it historically, it has a 4% error rate, usually low.

So, here are the numbers through the end of the month, still.

1.5x	1.42x		1.25x
1,170	1,109	3/25/20	975
1,755	1,577	3/26/20	1,219
2,633	2,243	3/27/20	1,523
3,949	3,190	3/28/20	1,904
5,923	4,536	3/29/20	2,380
8,885	6,451	3/30/20	2,975
13,327	9,173	3/31/20	3,719

If you're following along at home, the projections do appear to be improving. This leads to the question of how we will know this is "over."

In my mind, if we can get 3 days in a row of decreasing deaths by at least 20%, then that's a trend. (One is a fluke, 2 is luck, 3 is a pattern.) If we can get a week of decreasing deaths, and then a static level of hospitalizations/deaths, then I think we can start to unwind a bit. That will allow us to focus on the hotspots.

That also assumes a robust testing protocol so that any new positive gets full contact tracing and testing. Several moving parts to it.

So, the timeline of "better" is at least beyond April 1. Each day that we hit another high or are within 20% of the previous day, then that gets pushed out another day.

But that's just what makes sense to me. I am not an epidemiologist.

 

[Sigblitz]

If anyone is interested, I have some used paper for sale. One side is still good. No deals, I know what I got.

 

[nonobaddog]

Well, Chi-Coms reported deaths anyway. It's hard to increase the numbers of infected if you don't test, it's hard to increase the numbers of dead if you don't admit them to the hospitals...or maybe it's easy to ignore if you only care about world domination and life means nothing to you.

China has this down. See, if you shoot people or burn them in their huts they don't count as corona virus deaths.

 

[qwerty]

I have updated the spreadsheet with the updated numbers. There were some corrections to the US figures going back about 7 days so there will be some difference in past numbers, although not much. Worldometers is no longer posting US death info (age and co-morbidity) so I am trying to locate some location if someone has a good link, please let me know. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...F2nSBMG8kMCK6dQZXk8zxhBvXgyDgjgXJc_K7/pubhtml

There were some posts earlier about a child dying in LA from coronavirus, they are currently walking that back slightly.


The Oxford Study is interesting and although someone said it was just an "Apple advertising blog", the "blog" was just referring to the article published to the Financial Times, not publishing it themselves. For those interested who do not have a subscription, I burned off a PDF here: https://app.box.com/s/wq9tedclfsh5i2e1572owa3jzba9frtk The links work to the actual Model that the Oxford Study is using.

@T.Lex if you could provide some input on their model that would be awesome, you seem to have your stuff together.

Everyone else, take a walk! It will do you good! Higher Daily Step Count Linked with Lower All-cause Mortality