Coronavirus II

[Ingomike]

The actual CDC guidance on this is publicly available. It leaves it to the clinician's discretion in the absence of a lab result to make the determination that a decedent who had symptoms of COVID-19 actually died of COVID-19.
.

Sure there is is but the senator is saying that doctors are being coached to pad the Covid-19 stats that are so loved by some and others need as vindication for their failed projections...

 

[T.Lex]

Sure there is is but the senator is saying that doctors are being coached to pad the Covid-19 stats that are so loved by some and others need as vindication for their failed projections...

Was this the interview?
https://www.foxnews.com/media/physician-blasts-cdc-coronavirus-death-count-guidelines

If so, I believe - based on CDC guidance - he's been doing it wrong this whole time, and the influenza deaths in Minnesota have been underreported by whatever number of his patients have died from influenza.

And this:

Jensen then told Ingraham that under the CDC guidelines, a patient who died after being hit by a bus and tested positive for coronavirus would be listed as having presumed to have died from the virus regardless of whatever damage was caused by the bus.

Is flat out wrong (and that's putting it nicely).

ETA:
This appears to be the AMA/CMS guidance on COVID codes-
https://www.ama-assn.org/system/files/2020-04/covid-19-coding-advice.pdf

 

[JettaKnight]

Was this the interview?
https://www.foxnews.com/media/physician-blasts-cdc-coronavirus-death-count-guidelines

If so, I believe - based on CDC guidance - he's been doing it wrong this whole time, and the influenza deaths in Minnesota have been underreported by whatever number of his patients have died from influenza.

And this:


Is flat out wrong (and that's putting it nicely).

Fake news and a politician lying?

 

[Sigblitz]

They say it sits in the throat for a couple days before moving into the lungs. And I've seen advice about daily salt water gargling and drinking hot tea etc. So It would make sense that a high proof alcohol would kill it or damage it in the throat or mouth enough to flush it into the stomach for the digestive juices to finish it.
But also staying hydrated is important so not overdoing the drinking is important too.
Not trying to preach, I like my bourbon too

My wife makes us hot lemon water.
And I've been gargling mouthwash.

 

[Alpo]

Fake news and a politician lying?

The great thing about the Law of Large Numbers is:

Bull**** goes away in the rounding. So do most anecdotes.

 

[Trigger Time]

My wife makes us hot lemon water.
And I've been gargling mouthwash.

Lemons are great. Mouthwash is too.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1248633625379299329

Indiana's governor declared that churches have two options: partake in communion according to his dictates, even if they violate church doctrine, or get arrested.

The First Amendment was fun while it lasted. Free exercise of religion? Pfft.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/10/indiana-governor-to-churches-worship-as-i-say-or-be-shut-down/

 

[chipbennett]

Ah, now I'm with you.

Honestly, I don't remember the graph(s) you describe. I somewhat recall graphs that showed the flattening would keep the hosptalizations under capacity. But, that was also at a time when I'm not sure we really knew the capacity or the increased capacity available by using hotels or convention spaces as overflow.

That's why I didn't pay much attention to them, I guess. And, that's why it would be important to assign numbers to those graphs. (I also tend to ignore graphs without numbers... to me that kinda defeats the purpose.) The newer graphs regarding capacity likely reflect the increased capacity from cancellations of elective surgery and using those overflow resources. Changing behavior changed the numbers.

By the way, can we at least agree that not hitting the capacity is a good thing?

100%. As is not hitting any of the dire projections. People not getting sick and dying is a good thing.

But one of the apparently most overblown narratives was that this virus would overwhelm the US healthcare system. Other than Italy being projected onto the US (in some cases, literally - I'm looking at you, CBS), and in isolated edge cases like New York metro, that narrative hasn't come anywhere close to happening.

 

[chipbennett]

https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1248633625379299329

What concerns me about this development is not so much Holcomb making the order, but rather how many people are apparently so willing to accept it without question or challenge, because of a virus.

This order utterly eviscerates the constitutional protections of the first amendment.

 

[T.Lex]

100%. As is not hitting any of the dire projections. People not getting sick and dying is a good thing.

But one of the apparently most overblown narratives was that this virus would overwhelm the US healthcare system. Other than Italy being projected onto the US (in some cases, literally - I'm looking at you, CBS), and in isolated edge cases like New York metro, that narrative hasn't come anywhere close to happening.

I think in Seattle and New Orleans, it was/is close. But certainly not every metropolitan area was hit like NYC.

 

[chipbennett]

I think in Seattle and New Orleans, it was/is close. But certainly not every metropolitan area was hit like NYC.

Again, 2009 H1N1 and regular, seasonal flu result in about 300K hospitalizations. COVID19 is at 15,000.

And I don't recall any narrative during H1N1, much less, annually during seasonal flu season, about our healthcare system capacity being overwhelmed. (In other words, there's no reason to believe that even 300K is the upper bound of healthcare system capacity.)

 

[nonobaddog]

Indiana is still on an upward curve for the number of new cases but the number of deaths appears to be past the peak - this is a good thing.
Minnesota is still on an upward curve for both new cases and deaths.
Different areas are on different schedules.

 

[IndyBeerman]

I don't even know how to order at Starbucks.
Uh yeah give me that deep black slap you in the face coffee with a side of slap yo momma, in whatever you call that upsized cup.
And throw in some of that sugar free sweetener for diabetics.
Huh? Hell no I dont want no whip cream, do I look like the damn tiger king?
And a couple napkins too please.

Isn't a order to Starbucks something like "Don't you and your father attack the Cylons alone"

I have no need, and never will have a need to visit a Starbucks.

 

[hoosierdoc]

And the evidence that we were, are, or ever would be in an "overloaded" situation is... what? That (along with Hough's point) is the other part of the graph that hasn't really been discussed or challenged much.

Have the 29 million 2019-2020 seasonal flu cases (as of February) overloaded our healthcare system, or the 280,000 resulting hospitalizations?

Did the 61 million H1N1 cases in 2009 overload our healthcare system, or the 273,000 resulting hospitalizations?

Accurate hospitalization data are difficult to come by (eh, T. Lex?), but according to this site, we are currently at an (admittedly underestimated) 4.6 hospitalizations per 100,000 - which, if my math is correct, calculates to just over 15,000 hospitalizations for a population of 327.2MM.

We are at or near the currently expected peak of the outbreak, and other than in very isolated, localized extremes (e.g. the New York metro area), we have come nowhere close to meeting - much less, overloading - our healthcare system.

These numbers do not make sense. These numbers have never made sense.

you are thinking nationally with those numbers. this is a regional problem. NYV absoljtrky overwhelmed and short of ICU beds. 98% of rest of the country is absolutely fine with bored medical staff and low census hospitals

 

[T.Lex]

Again, 2009 H1N1 and regular, seasonal flu result in about 300K hospitalizations. COVID19 is at 15,000.

And I don't recall any narrative during H1N1, much less, annually during seasonal flu season, about our healthcare system capacity being overwhelmed. (In other words, there's no reason to believe that even 300K is the upper bound of healthcare system capacity.)

You're mixing 2 different viewpoints.

Every year, we know how many flu patients (roughly) there will be and how to treat them - that is, how long their stay will usually be, how many staff will be required to take care of them, what precautions to take. We know alot.

I do remember with the previous cries of "wolf" about this kind of thing that people were worried about capacity issues. But, it didn't happen.

While there's no reason to think 300k is the upper bound, that's where I think you're conflating 2 different things. There was no reason to think COVID would be LESS than 300k hospitalizations a couple weeks ago. And, some compelling reasons to think there might be an order of magnitude more than that necessary.

So, the planning was for the worst case.

That the worst case did not occur does not mean the preparation was foolish.

You and I are of an age when the Cold War was the most imminent threat to humanity. The preparations for MAD were not folly at the time, although looking back, that argument might be made.

 

[hoosierdoc]

Indiana is still on an upward curve for the number of new cases but the number of deaths appears to be past the peak - this is a good thing.
Minnesota is still on an upward curve for both new cases and deaths.
Different areas are on different schedules.

indiana isn't on a curve, we're on a slight hill, unless yesterday was a statistical anomaly. yesterday was 10% more new cases than a week ago april 3. Meh. the two prior days had been down 20%.

 

[hoosierdoc]

I’ve seen posts on FB (and I’m sure you have too) where the poster will ask questions in a similar vein and the responses from the Karens out there peg the meter in their shrillness.

oh yeah. this has really shown the people who are only capable of considering one concept at a time and feel moral high ground on that topic give them power to do anything. terrifying

 

[T.Lex]

Looking at deaths, Indiana might even be hitting the plateau.

 

[hoosierdoc]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but aren’t these numbers based on perfect compliance with stay home orders and social distancing? Meaning, we can’t attribute the slashed numbers to our own actions? So the numbers were cut in half based on nothing more than adjusting an incorrect model? I understand models can and should be changed as the information improves, but the fact it was so far off can’t be ignored.

all I have heard is how bad we have been at social distancing. spring break was going to destroy the country

these models took into account social distancing. the 2.2 million dead supposedly did not

 

[T.Lex]

all I have heard is how bad we have been at social distancing. spring break was going to destroy the country

these models took into account social distancing. the 2.2 million dead supposedly did not

That's correct. Until we started to get numbers back that were post-shutdown, there was no way to know what effect that would have. With more information comes better estimates.

ETA:
I just re-read the post doc quoted. The new models are not refinement in a vacuum - at least not the IHME. They are refinement based on actions that were taken to restrict interactions, or had the effect of restricting interactions like canceling sporting events.