Coronavirus II

[Super Bee]

"I like my coffee the way I like my men...."

 

[Bennettjh]

Dr. Babbaganoush now estimates less than 60K fatalities by August from this virus.

I'm gonna say it first ( ): Trump was right all along.

 

[jsx1043]

The bad part is those people that are playing the system will be the same ones to cry unfairness because they cut back on unemployment or food stamps. They don’t realize if they weren’t scamming the system the system would have more money for those programs to last longer or reach more people. I’m a firm believer in karma. It’ll come around eventually, and all the young people that don’t give a **** right now and are running around spreading it will be on the receiving end at some point.

Hence the problem with Socialism. Sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.

And THIS is exactly what the left wants/wanted to happen to it’s demographic.

 

[jkfletcher]

Down goes the tent hospital

https://www.foxnews.com/us/washington-field-hospital-coronavirus-dismantle

 

[Trigger Time]

I hydrate with light beer!

Well you're screwed. That only kills your dignity, LOL

 

[chipbennett]

In an overloaded situation, a large number of people don't get care, meaning a higher mortality rate.

And the evidence that we were, are, or ever would be in an "overloaded" situation is... what? That (along with Hough's point) is the other part of the graph that hasn't really been discussed or challenged much.

Have the 29 million 2019-2020 seasonal flu cases (as of February) overloaded our healthcare system, or the 280,000 resulting hospitalizations?

Did the 61 million H1N1 cases in 2009 overload our healthcare system, or the 273,000 resulting hospitalizations?

Accurate hospitalization data are difficult to come by (eh, T. Lex?), but according to this site, we are currently at an (admittedly underestimated) 4.6 hospitalizations per 100,000 - which, if my math is correct, calculates to just over 15,000 hospitalizations for a population of 327.2MM.

We are at or near the currently expected peak of the outbreak, and other than in very isolated, localized extremes (e.g. the New York metro area), we have come nowhere close to meeting - much less, overloading - our healthcare system.

These numbers do not make sense. These numbers have never made sense.

 

[chipbennett]

Ya I’m hoping these studies on the malaria drugs turn up some good news soon. I just hope they don’t focus all the attention on this one treatment and actually try multiple drugs during this study. The HIV drug was showing some hope in Korea I believe. Time will tell, but I’m still doing my best to take preventative measures every way I can. Isn’t a risk I wanna take, even if the treatment drugs do wind up helping I’d still rather not need it

There are a lot of treatments and vaccines in the pipeline.

View attachment 85994

 

[Trigger Time]

Hence the problem with Socialism. Sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.

And THIS is exactly what the left wants/wanted to happen to it’s demographic.

Yep. They want to create dependence on the welfare and not use it as it was intended as a hand up.
Just like I'm sure the democRAT leadership intentionally wanted people to get more unemployment money than they ever made on their checks. They knew a lot of people in their "target group" would quit their jobs to go get that "free" money.

 

[T.Lex]

Accurate hospitalization data are difficult to come by (eh, T. Lex?), but according to this site, we are currently at an (admittedly underestimated) 4.6 hospitalizations per 100,000 - which, if my math is correct, calculates to just over 15,000 hospitalizations for a population of 327.2MM.

Preach it, my brother!

We are at or near the currently expected peak of the outbreak, and other than in very isolated, localized extremes (e.g. the New York metro area), we have come nowhere close to meeting - much less, overloading - our healthcare system.

These numbers do not make sense. These numbers have never made sense.

Well hold up now.

We are at or near our CURRENTLY expected peak of the outbreak. You used the right word, but without the proper emphasis. Previously, based on data from the period with no or only selected shutdown mode, the transmission factor was much greater, which means the positives would've been greater, which means (by whatever rate you want to use) the hospitalizations would have been greater.

Because certain locales were harder hit, we know that's true and we know what that looks like.

The numbers have (mostly) made sense, and they still (mostly) do. The earlier numbers reflected the earlier reality, which was different than the current reality.

 

[chipbennett]

There are numerous drugs being studied here and around the world.

Oh, and the oft-cited 12-18 moths for a vaccine is under normal conditions with no pandemic and including the standard bureaucratic timeline which I can assure you is not what is being utilized. How long? Don't know, but it is being rushed through the process as quickly as prudence allows which the 12-18 month thing does not account for.

Correct. H1N1 pandemic was officially declared in April 2009. The first vaccine was being administered in October 2009, IIRC.

Several COVID19 vaccines are in the pipeline.

 

[chipbennett]

Preach it, my brother!



Well hold up now.

We are at or near our CURRENTLY expected peak of the outbreak. You used the right word, but without the proper emphasis. Previously, based on data from the period with no or only selected shutdown mode, the transmission factor was much greater, which means the positives would've been greater, which means (by whatever rate you want to use) the hospitalizations would have been greater.

Because certain locales were harder hit, we know that's true and we know what that looks like.

The numbers have (mostly) made sense, and they still (mostly) do. The earlier numbers reflected the earlier reality, which was different than the current reality.

What I'm addressing, specifically, was that seemingly every graph about flattening the curve used the same baseline assumptions with respect to healthcare system capacity, including the baseline that even a flattened curve would overload that capacity. So, no, what we are now seeing - with the curve peaking and our overall healthcare system being nowhere arguably close to capacity - was not reflected by any of those flatten-the-curve graphs.

 

[BugI02]

You're going to get it eventually unless you stay in your bunker until a vaccine comes along in a year.

Or more. SARS was 17 years ago and still no vaccine, although once containment was achieved much less research/money may have been detailed to the effort

 

[T.Lex]

What I'm addressing, specifically, was that seemingly every graph about flattening the curve used the same baseline assumptions with respect to healthcare system capacity, including the baseline that even a flattened curve would overload that capacity. So, no, what we are now seeing - with the curve peaking and our overall healthcare system being nowhere arguably close to capacity - was not reflected by any of those flatten-the-curve graphs.

Ah, now I'm with you.

Honestly, I don't remember the graph(s) you describe. I somewhat recall graphs that showed the flattening would keep the hosptalizations under capacity. But, that was also at a time when I'm not sure we really knew the capacity or the increased capacity available by using hotels or convention spaces as overflow.

That's why I didn't pay much attention to them, I guess. And, that's why it would be important to assign numbers to those graphs. (I also tend to ignore graphs without numbers... to me that kinda defeats the purpose.) The newer graphs regarding capacity likely reflect the increased capacity from cancellations of elective surgery and using those overflow resources. Changing behavior changed the numbers.

By the way, can we at least agree that not hitting the capacity is a good thing?

 

[Leadeye]

I've wondered since the beginning of this thing how much of the reaction was based on limiting liability. How many decisions were made based on concerns about firms like "the screwdriver" filing huge wrongful death claims over grandma passing from covid?

 

[KellyinAvon]

Employees wear lanyards with IDs. Scrubs make it easy to ID employees too. Do you have a fever? New or worsening cough? Shortness of breath? Sore throat? Diarrhea?

Patients: What brings you to the hospital today? Same questions as above plus one.

Visitors: No. We get their phone number and info so the staff can speak to them/coordinate which door to pick up. I really hate telling family they can't come in.

Do you have an ATM? Are you an employee or a Veteran? Uh, no. Due to the COVID-19 crisis we are restricting entry... I haven't gone full R Lee Ermy on any random yea-hoo showing up at hospital during a pandemic to use an ATM because their phone sent them there. Hopefully that trend will continue. I did get called an a-hole this week. "Damn right!" probably wasn't the best reply.

 

[Trigger Time]

Employees wear lanyards with IDs. Scrubs make it easy to ID employees too. Do you have a fever? New or worsening cough? Shortness of breath? Sore throat? Diarrhea?

Patients: What brings you to the hospital today? Same questions as above plus one.

Visitors: No. We get their phone number and info so the staff can speak to them/coordinate which door to pick up. I really hate telling family they can't come in.

Do you have an ATM? Are you an employee or a Veteran? Uh, no. Due to the COVID-19 crisis we are restricting entry... I haven't gone full R Lee Ermy on any random yea-hoo showing up at hospital during a pandemic to use an ATM because their phone sent them there. Hopefully that trend will continue. I did get called an a-hole this week. "Damn right!" probably wasn't the best reply.

LOL
I think it's the perfect reply to a-holes

 

[Ingomike]

That must be why they changed the death reporting, it wasn’t doom and gloomy enough.

And as se often say on INGO follow the money...

Senator Dr. Scott Jensen told reporters that he received a document coaching him to fill out death certificates with a Covid-19 diagnosis without lab confirmation. That the AMA was promoting this.

He told Laura Ingraham that Medicare is giving $13,000 to the hospital for each Covid-19 patient and if that patient goes on a vent $39,000. Could that be why they wanted vents so bad?

 

[T.Lex]

Senator Dr. Scott Jensen told reporters that he received a document coaching him to fill out death certificates with a Covid-19 diagnosis without lab confirmation. That the AMA was promoting this.

The actual CDC guidance on this is publicly available. It leaves it to the clinician's discretion in the absence of a lab result to make the determination that a decedent who had symptoms of COVID-19 actually died of COVID-19.

There are also sound policy reasons that, with testing kits in limited supply, it may not be the best use of a testing kit on a dead person. Like with most death-certificate related things, we kinda have to trust that the person doing it is doing it appropriately.

He told Laura Ingraham that Medicare is giving $13,000 to the hospital for each Covid-19 patient and if that patient goes on a vent $39,000. Could that be why they wanted vents so bad?

I believe the gov't is paying for most (all?) of COVID-19 patent care. Although now that I think about it, maybe that was only uninsured people. Either way, it makes sense to me that Medicare would do what Medicare does and apply dollar values to treatments.

There should still be trust that the doctors are providing appropriate care.

 

[Ingomike]

I've wondered since the beginning of this thing how much of the reaction was based on limiting liability. How many decisions were made based on concerns about firms like "the screwdriver" filing huge wrongful death claims over grandma passing from covid?

THIS!

So much of this fear in the business world is just fear of liability and fear of not virtue signaling enough. What precedent are we setting if a company did all this for coronavirus and nothing for even stuff we know exists?

 

[chipbennett]

If we were out doing our jobs, not like normal, but with the knowledge that the virus was around and behaving accordingly, how many think they would have contracted COVID-19 and how many think they would not?

I think there's a good chance I've already had it. My wife thinks the same thing about herself and our girls.

On a regular basis, I travel literally coast to coast. In the weeks leading up to the forced shutdowns, my travel included: San Francisco, Washington state (Spokane, including SEA airport), and Washington, DC (including LGA airport). There is a very high likelihood that I was exposed to a carrier during that period. Though, we suspect that it actually made its way through central Indiana a couple months earlier, and that we were among the mild/asymptomatic.

Obviously, pure speculation.

I go back on the road next week. I'm helping coordinate a team of more than 20 people to help a CMO site in Cleveland manufacture Remdesivir. Nearly everyone is driving (including from Texas and New Mexico). I've coordinated a hotel to provide us a dedicated floor, so that we can minimize contact/exposure, both to, and from, our group. The project is expected to be 10 weeks long, and we are planning for the possibility/likelihood that we will not have interim travel home for the duration. (Typically, at most we work 10-4 rotations with home travel every 2 weeks.)

So, yeah, for the most part, I'll be out doing my job, mostly like normal, but with some precautions. I will take those precautions (and not seeing my family for 10 weeks is a precaution, though I view it more as a sacrifice), but I choose not to fear a virus, or fear catching it. Living in such fear is absolutely no way to live life.