Coronavirus II

[CountryBoy1981]

So, in absolute terms, yesterday was pretty bad - nearly 2k dead. But, the rolling average of daily deaths since 3/31 is still 1,213. And based on another pattern, today should be closer to the average.

Yesterday was still below the trendline for daily percentage increase, and the trendline for day-over-day deaths is still downward.

All that is to say that we may still be on the road to recovery.

This has a lot to do with schools being shut down and the lockdown. The question is when we get this slowed way down, what happens if we lift the lockdown?

 

[eldirector]

Sitting in my home office, on an all-hand video conference with nearly 1000 co-workers from our global company. Within the last 10 days, we moved from a roughly 50% "remote worker" company to a 100% work from home. Globally. And work continues uninterrupted. Even our CEO quipped that this call is "pants optional".

Love this place.

 

[jsharmon7]

This has a lot to do with schools being shut down and the lockdown. The question is when we get this slowed way down, what happens if we lift the lockdown?

This is a good question. This is a best case scenario, but within 1-3 months that will change. I think we just have to get past the initial surge on hospitals and then people will be on their own to some degree. According to HoosierDoc and folks I know at other area hospitals, the numbers are already low. Most of what I’ve heard by people with access to that info is 25-30% of projected numbers. That’s great, but based on extreme measures.

 

[JTScribe]

Here's what to do if a nonessential business is still open

How convenient, officials even have a website set up for you to rat out your friends and neighbors.

Whatever happened to snitches get stitches?

Be a shame if someone reported city hall or the governor's office.

 

[T.Lex]

This has a lot to do with schools being shut down and the lockdown. The question is when we get this slowed way down, what happens if we lift the lockdown?

This is a good question. This is a best case scenario, but within 1-3 months that will change. I think we just have to get past the initial surge on hospitals and then people will be on their own to some degree. According to HoosierDoc and folks I know at other area hospitals, the numbers are already low. Most of what I’ve heard by people with access to that info is 25-30% of projected numbers. That’s great, but based on extreme measures.

Yeah, I think that's the play. Once we have something that looks like "stability" in our handling of this, and we know we have capacity for hotspots, then we phase in "normalcy" starting in places that didn't get hit very badly at all. Mostly here in fly-over country.

Dense population centers on the coasts may take more time.

 

[CountryBoy1981]

We may be having a coronavirus crisis on our southern border that could spew into Texas:

Covid-19 has come to Mexico. Factories are shut, planes grounded, beaches empty. Some 2,000 are now infected and dozens dead; cases have been doubling every few days. For weeks, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador blithely ignored the lessons coming out of Italy, Spain and elsewhere. He held rallies, hugged supporters, kissed children and made fun of safety recommendations.


When the federal government did finally announce social distancing measures to begin on March 23, the president wasn’t the one who faced the nation. Instead he sent a Health Ministry undersecretary to urge citizens to stay home. Later the Foreign Minister, not the president, declared a national emergency.


Only now, two weeks later, has the president finally addressed the nation. His speech revealed his limits as a leader, and leaves Mexico unprepared to face the pandemic, rescue the economy or bring the nation together. This failure threatens not just his once sky-high approval ratings, but also the viability of his ambitious economic and political project.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...-killing-lopez-obrador-s-big-plans-for-mexico.

 

[jedi]

I use Steramine sanitizing tablets instead of bleach. It is used in the restaurant industry. Kills everything that bleach kills. A bottle of 150 tablets is cheap and makes 150 gallons of sterilizer. No bleach smell, no danger of chemical burns, easy to use in a spray bottle and food prep surface safe. You just use 1 tablet per gallon of water. It's always fresh because you make it as you need it. A lot easier to store a bottle of Steramine than 150 gallons of bleach.

https://www.webstaurantstore.com/ed...nitizing-tablets-sanitabs-bottle/999TABS.html

[video=youtube;1XRDtyxWma8]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XRDtyxWma8[/video]

Does this product kill the c-virus?
I dont see it listed in the EPA list of certified c-virus killers

https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/list-n-disinfectants-use-against-sars-cov-2

 

[Leadeye]

Somehow I don't think that people who have been out of work and out of money are going to race off to binge eat three squares a day at the local restaurants for a week after the orders lift. Recovery is going to take a lot longer that the crash did and many places won't reopen at all.

 

[smokingman]

Does this product kill the c-virus?
I dont see it listed in the EPA list of certified c-virus killers

https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/list-n-disinfectants-use-against-sars-cov-2

Many are not on the list that actually kill sars-cov-2. The epa had zero on the list a few weeks ago because they did not have a sample to test against(i posted this in the original covid thread I think). They will get around to it.

Steramine is listed by the epa as killing coronavirus in general,along with most bacteria and viruses.Just make sure to wait the full minute.
https://media3.cleanfreak.com/documents/literature/efficacy-summary-steramine.pdf


I use 1 tab per gallon for dishes. 1 tablet per half gallon for spray. I also rotate between steramine and 1/3 cup of bleach per gallon for cleaning. Side note on the bleach. It does not seem to hurt the hardwood or marble floors in the house,but I am watching closely for any signs it does. It is also less needed now that everyone is removing shoes(was a struggle).

 

[terrehautian]

Local paper reported that three people had been charged with violating stay at home order when they got booked into jail. The Facebook “karen’s” are out in full force saying, “no one should be out....etc”. One person was arrested for burglary and another drunk driving.

In another “karen” moment. A father, mom and daughter was playing ball at a park in Colorado. Someone called the police to report a large group of 12-15 playing ball. Police arrived and unless the group was listening to the scanner and scattered when they heard the call, it was three people from the same household. Colorado’s stay at home order is similar to almost every states. No social gatherings in large groups, parks open but no playgrounds. So what do the cops do? Do they radio in and say it is only three people? Nope, four cops get out and ask for the guys id. Colorado is an identification state if you’re suspected of a crime. Playing ball in an open park with your own family isn’t a crime. Guy was detained for ten minutes after being out in cuffs in front of his daughter (I think 6). Yes, the guy should’ve minimally told the officers his name, but since no crime was even being committed, no reason to even ask in my opinion. The city has reached out to offer an apology.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/police-officer-arrested-park-throwing-ball-daughter-due/story?id=70032966

bonus, it was a former state police officer who knew the rules.

In other news, as long as the line isn’t long, I’m hitting the car wash today. They reopened.

 

[smokingman]

Still people are so ill informed they are taking cruises....sigh.

[h=1]Passengers to be evacuated from Antarctic cruise ship after almost 60% test positive for coronavirus[/h]
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/americas/greg-mortimer-cruise-ship-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html

I just checked multiple cruise lines. Yes,you can still go on a cruise and ships are still leaving almost daily.
This should be stopped.

 

[T.Lex]

Well snap. Indiana apparently revised some numbers. We were actually at 199 on 4/6 (not 173) and at 203 (allegedly) on 4/7.

Which means...

Opinions on warning shots aside, I think you’ve been on it in terms of numbers.

Updated models show just over 1,000 more deaths in Indiana over the next 10 days. Given that we had 34 new deaths, does 100 deaths a day until peak seem reasonable to you?

Well, I come at it a bit differently. We have 173 now (allegedly). Doubling every 3 days (which is where we were nationally towards the end of March), would mean 346 on April 10 and ~700 by April 13 and ~1,400 by April 16. So... yeah... using the worst case doubling factor.

Indiana has always been "better" than that average. Today at 173 means we've doubled in 10 days to get to here (88 on 3/28). Our numbers are still pretty small, though, so it is hard to really judge.

Instead of labeling it "reasonable," I'd say that it would reflect a worst-case-scenario.

Importantly, we don't have (that I know of) data on critical cases. If we're sitting on 2,000 critical cases across the state, then yeah - probably 1,500 of them will die in the next 10 days.

Ain't hardly right at all.

Like, enough wrong to actually IRL **** me off. But whatevs.

Now, it still reflects a 9-day doubling for Indiana. If that holds (and it probably won't), then that puts us at 1k deaths in about 2 weeks. Let's say it is 5 days. That means 400 by 4/13 and 800 by 4/18. Pretty close to 1k.

I still don't see info on critical cases, but I'm 99% sure they know that number. That's the number they're working from, I'm convinced.

 

[JettaKnight]

Local paper reported that three people had been charged with violating stay at home order when they got booked into jail. The Facebook “karen’s” are out in full force saying, “no one should be out....etc”. One person was arrested for burglary and another drunk driving.

In another “karen” moment. A father, mom and daughter was playing ball at a park in Colorado. Someone called the police to report a large group of 12-15 playing ball. Police arrived and unless the group was listening to the scanner and scattered when they heard the call, it was three people from the same household. Colorado’s stay at home order is similar to almost every states. No social gatherings in large groups, parks open but no playgrounds. So what do the cops do? Do they radio in and say it is only three people? Nope, four cops get out and ask for the guys id. Colorado is an identification state if you’re suspected of a crime. Playing ball in an open park with your own family isn’t a crime. Guy was detained for ten minutes after being out in cuffs in front of his daughter (I think 6). Yes, the guy should’ve minimally told the officers his name, but since no crime was even being committed, no reason to even ask in my opinion. The city has reached out to offer an apology.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/police-officer-arrested-park-throwing-ball-daughter-due/story?id=70032966

bonus, it was a former state police officer who knew the rules.

In other news, as long as the line isn’t long, I’m hitting the car wash today. They reopened.

He said he refused to provide his identification when officers asked for it because he had not broken any law.

The roadside (or in this case, the playground) is never the place for lawyerin'. Of course, he was a trooper, so he knows this...

 

[OurDee]

How about confronting the false reporter?

 

[T.Lex]

IHME updated their data (and thus, their projections). Reflecting the over-estimations of bad stuff, the estimated total deaths by Aug. 4 is ~60k. Peak COVID should be in about 3-4 days.

For Indiana, it is more like 6-8 days for Peak COVID with a total deaths of about 860.

 

[smokingman]

IHME updated their data (and thus, their projections). Reflecting the over-estimations of bad stuff, the estimated total deaths by Aug. 4 is ~60k. Peak COVID should be in about 3-4 days.

For Indiana, it is more like 6-8 days for Peak COVID with a total deaths of about 860.

Just to be clear. The peak death in the model is not total deaths or cumulative deaths it is deaths per day.

 

[T.Lex]

Just to be clear. The peak death in the model is not total deaths or cumulative deaths it is deaths per day.

Yeah, I kinda collapse that together with resource use, because I see the 2 things as closely related. I probably should've said that.

ETA:
I use "Peak COVID" as a reference to the not-heard-as-much-lately "Peak Oil."

 

[Sigblitz]

Somehow I don't think that people who have been out of work and out of money are going to race off to binge eat three squares a day at the local restaurants for a week after the orders lift. Recovery is going to take a lot longer that the crash did and many places won't reopen at all.

I mentioned this in a thread. Businesses have been preparing for this for about a month. Volunteer LOA, voluntary one week off a month, 4 day weeks to make payroll and secure loans/grants. Then they'll pair down to a core group of people. We're in for a rough ride.

 

[Sigblitz]

Our hospitals are allowing 1 visitor during an end of life situation. Visitor wears PPE.

 

[Snapdragon]

Purely anecdotal and unscientific, but does anyone else find the in.gov page's COVID-19 death numbers questionable? There are 485,640 people in Lake County. As of today there are 12 Lake County deaths per the in.gov page. I personally knew 3 people just in Crown Point (Lake Co. county seat) who died from it within the past week. How realistic is it that I personally knew 25% of the people who have died from this in Lake County?