Coronavirus II

[maxwelhse]

I don't know about the lockdown, but the Trump extended the social distancing guidelines until then.

BIG difference... We'll see what the governor does with that. If anything, I was expecting them to shorten the lockdown.

 

[d.kaufman]

Dont forget to keep wearing your gloves too!

 

[tbhausen]

Easter would be the very worst time to recommend loosening any kind of social distancing guidelines! Even if we’re over the hump, getting everyone together when the virus is still doing its thing would be the worst thing we could do!

 

[tbhausen]

d.kaufman, we all could’ve done without that.

 

[ditcherman]

BIG difference... We'll see what the governor does with that. If anything, I was expecting them to shorten the lockdown.

Wasn’t it scheduled out to 4-7 originally? What was your logic that it might have been shortened?

Somewhat related a question was asked about regionally loosening the SD guides and the answer was no. I would predict only some regional loosening by 4-30 but some places still shut down, later hit areas.

 

[Kdf101]

I would say almost a zero chance on loosening restrictions before end of April. We will see though.

 

[maxwelhse]

Wasn’t it scheduled out to 4-7 originally? What was your logic that it might have been shortened?

Somewhat related a question was asked about regionally loosening the SD guides and the answer was no. I would predict only some regional loosening by 4-30 but some places still shut down, later hit areas.

I'm talking about the SIP order, not the SD guidelines. My reasoning, which is just my opinion, of shortening them up is that the estimates of infection seem to have been initially inflated. I haven't heard anything saying they're going to shorten it or have any other reason for expecting them to do so. Nor am I advocating one way or the other.

 

[qwerty]

CBS....See...B S

 

[ditcherman]

I'm talking about the SIP order, not the SD guidelines. My reasoning, which is just my opinion, of shortening them up is that the estimates of infection seem to have been initially inflated. I haven't heard anything saying they're going to shorten it or have any other reason for expecting them to do so. Nor am I advocating one way or the other.

Gotcha.
If it had to do with our governor, he’ll probably just follow the lead of the states around him so we’ll have fair warning of what’s going to happen, just like we did for the original order.
Estimates wrong or not, this party is just getting heated up at this point, unless some major break comes along very soon.

 

[jsharmon7]

Gotcha.
If it had to do with our governor, he’ll probably just follow the lead of the states around him so we’ll have fair warning of what’s going to happen, just like we did for the original order.
Estimates wrong or not, this party is just getting heated up at this point, unless some major break comes along very soon.

The anti-malaria drug with a Z-pack is showing some promise according to a few sites. That’s really the only way I see anything slowing down. A vaccine is a year out, at least. We can’t continue like this for much longer. That concoction being successful is the only way out I see for a return to some sense of normalcy.

 

[hoosierdoc]

fauci said up to 200,000 dead in US.

there are 33 million people age 70 or older. if 5% die per year (conservative) that is 1.65 million per year. or 137,000 per month. so in six months, that is 825,000 expected deaths in the 70+ age group. under normal circumstances.

in the midst of this pandemic they think maybe 200,000 total deaths from it? so if you're in the US you have a 0.053% chance of death this year from corona if the number holds true and everyone is equal. consider your risk factors and adjust up or down as you see fit.

even if all deaths were in the 70+ age range it would only account for 24% of their deaths.

just some perspective to make you feel better.

 

[ghitch75]

Dont forget to keep wearing your gloves too!

i spray the pumps with Lysol....

 

[ghitch75]

[h=1]Trump says coronavirus 'peak in death rate' likely in 2 weeks, extends social-distancing guidelines through April 30[/h]
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-coronavirus-briefing-death-rate-social-distancing

 

[maxwelhse]

The anti-malaria drug with a Z-pack is showing some promise according to a few sites. That’s really the only way I see anything slowing down. A vaccine is a year out, at least. We can’t continue like this for much longer. That concoction being successful is the only way out I see for a return to some sense of normalcy.

I'm also of the belief that warm weather, meaning the end of just regular flu season, will also see this all simmer down some. So, that year for the vaccine may not actually be so terrible. We'll see.

 

[ditcherman]

The anti-malaria drug with a Z-pack is showing some promise according to a few sites. That’s really the only way I see anything slowing down. A vaccine is a year out, at least. We can’t continue like this for much longer. That concoction being successful is the only way out I see for a return to some sense of normalcy.

I read earlier today that the chloroquine treatment was really working well, I think in Spain but I can’t find the article now. They’re using it in NY and we’ll know soon. IIRC they were using it only in specific cases. But this shows great promise. I remember the byline was something like it reduces recovery time to 5 days instead of two weeks plus.

Speaking to your “can’t” sentence; I understand your sentiment, but if someone would have told you (spoiler alert, they did) a month and a half ago that we were going to tell everyone to stay home from work you would have said (did say) can’t. So, we can, we just really don’t want to if we can help it. Hopefully the treatment will come along well.

 

[ditcherman]

I'm also of the belief that warm weather, meaning the end of just regular flu season, will also see this all simmer down some. So, that year for the vaccine may not actually be so terrible. We'll see.

The warm weather thing makes sense, but doesn’t explain why it’s still a fairly strong presence in Australia and other warm places. Sunshine definitely kills it.

 

[jkfletcher]

Sunshine definitely kills it.

Well then we just need an EO banning cloudy and rainy days

 

[maxwelhse]

The warm weather thing makes sense, but doesn’t explain why it’s still a fairly strong presence in Australia and other warm places. Sunshine definitely kills it.

Spitballing here, I'm going to guess that their vastly closer proximity to travelers from China (about 10 hours as compared to 20 for most of us) as well as them being a winter vacation hot-spot for pretty much the entire northern hemisphere may contribute to that. I'm sure there's data to either refute or support my gut, but I'm too lazy to dig for it.

 

[ditcherman]

fauci said up to 200,000 dead in US.

there are 33 million people age 70 or older. if 5% die per year (conservative) that is 1.65 million per year. or 137,000 per month. so in six months, that is 825,000 expected deaths in the 70+ age group. under normal circumstances.

in the midst of this pandemic they think maybe 200,000 total deaths from it? so if you're in the US you have a 0.053% chance of death this year from corona if the number holds true and everyone is equal. consider your risk factors and adjust up or down as you see fit.

even if all deaths were in the 70+ age range it would only account for 24% of their deaths.

just some perspective to make you feel better.

It’s weird how that kind of logic and math can make me feel better but I guess it does.
I still believe left unchecked is a mistake, but we do have to balance the cost to the economy.

 

[CountryBoy1981]

I'm also of the belief that warm weather, meaning the end of just regular flu season, will also see this all simmer down some. So, that year for the vaccine may not actually be so terrible. We'll see.

The Deep South is already hot and humid yet it does not seem to be slowing it down yet.