You don't give $20 million guaranteed for an if. That is NEVER a good business decision. That money could've been spent bringing in players that might not have been among the leagues best but solid enough to play at their position for at least 50% of the season.
He got his big contract before he started having major injury issues...
He was great in 05, hurt early in 06 but came back and played great at the end of the reg season and playoffs, and played great in 07. Then got paid. Then got hurt.
You cannot predict he would be that injury prone. Of course looking back it ended up badly for the Colts, but it wasnt a bad decision at the time.
Ryan Leaf is a bad decision, signing a great player to a big deal then him getting hurt annually isnt. Thats bad luck.
He played a few darn good games. A few. A long time ago. Who are we talking about again?? ;-)
Uh... Peyton Manning I think.