For me this falls under the category of questions that can't really be answered. There are just way too many variables. While I agree with the widely accepted advice to carry the biggest gun you can effectively use. How does one accurately determine that. Do you carry the biggest gun you can fire three shots in rapid succession and hit within a 5" diameter of your target? Or is that too big? What defines rapid succession? Is that three seconds, or less? Most people can accomplish this with a variety of guns while stationary. How about while moving? Most ranges don't afford you the opportunity to practice or assess this.
I think you lose a lot in the averages. I think certain calibers perform better due to bullet selection, who commonly carries them, etc. I think you can draw some overall advice, but don't get hung up in the specific numbers.
Whatever caliber the police carry is going to be over represented because there's at least a modicum of training and there's good bullet selection. Common thug guns are going to be under represented due to generally poor bullet selection and the whole holding the gun sideways thing. Yes, they still do it. Yes, they hit each other in the legs a lot.
I don't have anything I specifically disagree with. I just believe there are so many variables that getting to a precise number of shots down to the 1/100th strikes me as unlikely. Yes, I get its an average. Here's the problem. I had a victim shot approximately 14 times with a .40. 10 in the limbs and 4 in the gut. He was right in front of a firehouse, they got him patched up in time, and he lived. Which bullet "stopped" him? #1? #14? I dunno. He claims amnesia, so I'm guessing he's not telling any researcher, either. Another one comes to mind on the other end of the scale. Suspect says he wants to fist fight, victim goes out to meet him, suspect pulls gun, victim starts backing toward his house. The suspect goes ahead and shoots him twice anyway, with the victim continuing to back away. Is that a two, one, or zero? The victim was "stopped" from fighting by the sight of the gun, but didn't stop his intended course of action despite being shot twice. Is it a stop or a failure to stop? If its a zero shot stop, how do you know what caliber to credit it to? How do you situations like these and enter it into your statistics? Regardless of how you do it, even if you kick it out, you aren't getting "true" results.
You may get a good count in a police action shooting or in a civilian defensive shooting, especially at a business where there's video and you can go back and actually see, but even when people want to be helpful, there's so much stress its unlikely they are going to be able to tell you if it was #2 or #3 that stopped him. Especially with modern higher capacity guns and the training to shoot until the threat stops, you may stitch a guy after he's stopped but before that info gets to your brain and back to your hand to stop firing. A heavier recoiling gun like the .357 may end up showing it takes less shots simply because there's more time between each shot and the "evaluate that he's stopped, let's stop shooting" time frame has less shots fired.
Moving beyond that into the general recommendations and we're basically on the same page. .380 and up = good. Smaller = bad. (With the caveat that I don't make a recommendation on the .32 one way or the other from first hand observation because its so uncommon I don't have a good data set. My belief is that it should be avoided, but that's not the same as seeing it. I'm deeply suspicious of how he got his numbers on that one and would bet the sample size is tiny)
There are so many variables, and frankly even if you have statements from everyone, video, and an autopsy, you probably still don't have the entire picture. Carry whatever you shoot accurately the fastest in a caliber that's capable of penetrating bone and still getting to the vitals. I personally carry a .45 or a .357 as a main gun and a .38 as a backup. I'd carry a .40 or 9mm with no problem. There's not much in the way of duty sized pistols in .380, but I'd be ok with one as a backup. I will say I'd rather carry a .380 with good sights, a nice trigger, and an intuitive grip angle than a .45 without them.
I agree that it's not really going to be answered, at least not to the precision that folks really want. You can draw general conclusions among a wide disparity, .22 LR vs .44 magnum for example, but it gets a lot more fuzzy when you get into the common duty rounds. You are spot on, simply too many variables that can't reliably be known and measured.
I would alter the advise slightly about choosing what to carry though. Carrying the largest that you can effectively use is rather nebulous, and what defines "effective"? Like you say, there's various measurements of accuracy and speed. Let's also consider there's huge variations in skill. Jerry Miculek will likely outshoot me with a Hi-Point regardless of what I use. That's irrelevant to my own selection, though. That's why I say find what you shoot accurately the fastest in any of the acceptable calibers. I firmly believe that speed and accuracy matter much more once you're in a duty caliber than the the slight differences among them.
I've posted my personal criteria on how I measure this several times. What can I pull and put 3 "A" box hits on the fastest at 7 yards. That's a pretty "average" shooting. It is, in my opinion, the simplest measure of what I'm best with. Now, I'll train and practice at other distances, with multiple targets, on the move, etc. I'm one of the lucky ones with both a personal range and access to a range that allows strings of fire, shooting on the move, etc. I will keep those times and compare. Without exception, what I am fastest with on my simple test will also be what I'm fastest with on more complex ones. It translates over. Maybe not in the same proportions (.3 seconds faster on this test, .7 on that one) but the ranking is the same. For me right now its the Sig P220 with aftermarket sights and the short reset trigger. It happens to be in .45.
I will confess to some hypocrisy, however. For on duty use I prefer heavy and slow bullets because of their performance against intermediate barriers. Off duty when its pretty unlikely I'll have to shoot through a windshield or the like, I find this much less of an issue. Because I don't care for a lot of logistics, I tend to not expand into new calibers. I've never shot a .327, for example. I consolidated awhile back and got rid of everything not .38/.357, .40, and .45. If not for uniformed detail requirements, I'd probably ditch .40 as well.
Unless it's a .25.22lr if thats the only thing you can be quick and accurate with under pressure (like my mom for instance). Shot placement and training trumps all
I have consolidated to 9mm because that is what I shoot the best. I am transitioning to an alloy version of my all steel EDC because I think it will help slightly with transitions. Deciding on the caliber you shoot best with out a lot of time wasted just allows more time to train with that weapon/caliber and maximize your potential. Previously, I wasted time in going back and forth until finally deciding to concentrate on one. This was the best decision for me and may apply to others as well. Having too many platforms and calibers can be counter-productive. Lots of wisdom in your posts, as usual.
, how about what you already have, most will have mine is the best and I can pee farther than you type answer.. A .22 will kill anything deader than Hammer's Hell, 1 shot with a .22 or 14 with a 40 S&W you never know which one will do the job. Would I carry a .22 , yes if that is all I had.
That's the pointIn that gel pic, the 10mm looks like there was a mushroom cloud behind it lol.
I think that being new to shooting after a long layoff and not carrying yet may be the reason I can't decide what to carry. I'll have to do a lot of shooting and see what works best with the guns I own and maybe see if I need to buy something else. I have no compact guns other than a 5-shot snub nose and I think I want to carry more than that. At the same time I want to carry concealed as comfortable as I can so I will carry more often.
My brother dropped a deer in it's tracks at a pretty good distance with a .22Short! Hit the neck and broke a vertebrae.
Hey Greg, if you would like to shoot any of mine we could meet up after work. I have a sub and two compacts you could try out. Let me know.