Beer Virus V

[bwframe]

[video=youtube;1KHFMb25VR0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KHFMb25VR0[/video]

 

[HoughMade]

Looks to me like Indiana's curve is flattened again. We were showing a top out )flattened curve) of around 5,000-5,500 new cases a day before Thanksgiving, then there was a predictable drop immediately after Thanksgiving followed by a predictable spike a few days after, but now we are around 5,000-5,500 again. The overwhelming majority of those who are going to show symptoms from whatever they did over the holiday will do so by the end of this week, so we could see some more high days.

Of course, even though the hyperbolic growth seems to have paused, that still means 5,000-5,500 new cases a day. Here's to hoping that it starts to drop....but I'm not holding my breath as COVID fatigue combined with "screw that, I'm going to do what I always do" kicks in for the next few weeks. Not judging...but we all know that's what is going to happen.

 

[wagyu52]

You still did not answer the question.
At what price would YOU be willing to take it?
10k, 50k, 1mill??

https://chassmiddleton.com/land-for-sale/6666-ranch

OR


https://chassmiddleton.com/land-for-sale/6666-dixon-creek-ranch-division


even the small one


https://chassmiddleton.com/land-for-sale/6666-frisco-creek-ranch-division

 

[BugI02]

Couldn't you just imagine what that world would be like?

Good beer, adequate code

 

[JettaKnight]

Good beer, adequate code

I'm touched, Bug.

 

[BugI02]

Looks to me like Indiana's curve is flattened again. We were showing a top out )flattened curve) of around 5,000-5,500 new cases a day before Thanksgiving, then there was a predictable drop immediately after Thanksgiving followed by a predictable spike a few days after, but now we are around 5,000-5,500 again. The overwhelming majority of those who are going to show symptoms from whatever they did over the holiday will do so by the end of this week, so we could see some more high days.

Of course, even though the hyperbolic growth seems to have paused, that still means 5,000-5,500 new cases a day. Here's to hoping that it starts to drop....but I'm not holding my breath as COVID fatigue combined with "screw that, I'm going to do what I always do" kicks in for the next few weeks. Not judging...but we all know that's what is going to happen.

CFR calculated just now with worldometers data, down below 1.89% and down from 2.13% on 21 Nov. Cases that don't end up dead increasing much faster than those that do, apparently

At that rate, down under 1.5% by Jan 5 at the latest

 

[chipbennett]

Source? Are these known or just merely possible? And whats the likelihood?

I'd need to know those before I make an informed decision instead of just using an image passed around on the internets.


The known side effect of COVID-19 is death.

I'm going to take a SWAG here, and guess that this information is gleaned from clinical trial adverse event reporting. Clinical trials have to report every single serious adverse event, regardless of severity, and in some circumstances, regardless of any provable or disprovable link to the investigational drug being studied in the trial. (And historically, IND sponsors have tended to over-report adverse events, even beyond regulator expectations.) So, if someone has a heart attack and dies due to metabolic syndrome/CHD while simultaneously participating in the clinical trial, that heart attack and death would typically have to be reported (with certain exceptions).

So, I'm guessing what you're looking at is a collated list of serious adverse events associated with Covid vaccine clinical trials, some or all of which may not even fall under regulatory requirements for reporting of serious adverse events.

 

[BugI02]

I'm touched, Bug.

Forgot to mention improved Nielsen numbers for NPR

 

[drillsgt]

CFR calculated just now with worldometers data, down below 1.89% and down from 2.13% on 21 Nov. Cases that don't end up dead increasing much faster than those that do, apparently

At that rate, down under 1.5% by Jan 5 at the latest

That's good news then, has anybody seen any criteria for declaring the end of the 'pandemic'?

 

[nonobaddog]

That's good news then, has anybody seen any criteria for declaring the end of the 'pandemic'?

That can't happen until the next new catastrophe is imagined and blessed. Or maybe they just fall back to global warming.

 

[BugI02]

That's good news then, has anybody seen any criteria for declaring the end of the 'pandemic'?

When Biden is inaugurated?

 

[T.Lex]

That's good news then, has anybody seen any criteria for declaring the end of the 'pandemic'?

Assuming (without conceding) a CFR of 1%, the pandemic will end with ~3.3M dead Americans.

The vaccines are expected to mitigate that, naturally. But, we will just have to wait and see.

If the fat lady survives (obesity is apparently an underlying condition of importance), she probably won't start warming up until March or so.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

Assuming (without conceding) a CFR of 1%, the pandemic will end with ~3.3M dead Americans.

The vaccines are expected to mitigate that, naturally. But, we will just have to wait and see.

If the fat lady survives (obesity is apparently an underlying condition of importance), she probably won't start warming up until March or so.

3.3 million seems awfully high, seeing as we haven't even hit 10% of that so far.

 

[drillsgt]

Assuming (without conceding) a CFR of 1%, the pandemic will end with ~3.3M dead Americans.

The vaccines are expected to mitigate that, naturally. But, we will just have to wait and see.

If the fat lady survives (obesity is apparently an underlying condition of importance), she probably won't start warming up until March or so.

Is that a benchmark from the WHO/CDC?

 

[BugI02]

Assuming (without conceding) a CFR of 1%, the pandemic will end with ~3.3M dead Americans.

The vaccines are expected to mitigate that, naturally. But, we will just have to wait and see.

If the fat lady survives (obesity is apparently an underlying condition of importance), she probably won't start warming up until March or so.

I don't believe the CFR is or will be that high. I believe I saw where even the CDC guesstimated that there were 8 people who have had it but not been detected for each one caught by testing. If that is anywhere near correct, the actual CFR would be around 0.21% right now and dropping

Infection Fatality Rate is currently about 0.14% and I haven't been following that enough to know if it is declining as fast as CFR, but I would expect the CFR to converge on the IFR when the data set is complete - so a little north of 463k deaths using current numbers, probably less than that in the realz

 

[T.Lex]

3.3 million seems awfully high, seeing as we haven't even hit 10% of that so far.

Indeed.

But, check my math. US population = ~330M. The pandemic will absolutely be over (herd immunity conjecture notwithstanding) once everyone has been exposed and their case resolved. With a CFR (Case Fatality Rate) of 1%, then 1% of 330M is 3.3M.

Ok, let's say the CFR is less than that and herd immunity kicks in at 2/3 infected. That's still ~2M dead Americans. And we're more than 10% of the way there.

Is that a benchmark from the WHO/CDC?

I stopped caring about the WHO pretty early. And the guidance from the CDC through this has been... suspect. I don't expect much better from the Biden administration, either.

 

[printcraft]

bullet virus strikes india... I guess we can hope it happens here...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/08/india/india-illness-nickel-lead-intl-scli/index.html

 

[indykid]

When Biden is inaugurated?

Was about to say this!

 

[drillsgt]

Indeed.

But, check my math. US population = ~330M. The pandemic will absolutely be over (herd immunity conjecture notwithstanding) once everyone has been exposed and their case resolved. With a CFR (Case Fatality Rate) of 1%, then 1% of 330M is 3.3M.

Ok, let's say the CFR is less than that and herd immunity kicks in at 2/3 infected. That's still ~2M dead Americans. And we're more than 10% of the way there.



I stopped caring about the WHO pretty early. And the guidance from the CDC through this has been... suspect. I don't expect much better from the Biden administration, either.

I agree, my point is I haven't seen any benchmarks for declaring this stuff over, I don't think most states have put out anything either?

 

[HoughMade]

There either a pandemic or there isn't. All I care about is when restrictions are reduced and eliminated and that is only tangentially related to whether there is a dictionary-definition pandemic going on.

In Indiana, as of late June and July, we were getting really close to the restrictions being removed and there was certainly still a pandemic. The key, at the time, was that there was plenty of ICU/hospital capacity and a relatively low transmission rate.