2016 Electoral College polling thread

[ArcadiaGP]

I expect post-debate numbers to strongly swing in Hillary's favor. From what I'm reading... Trump started calm and strong... then that faded away fast and he lost it.

I think he should have won this with ease... but he handed it to her.

 

[mikefraz]

Trump is looking bad...

 

[MCgrease08]

I expect post-debate numbers to strongly swing in Hillary's favor. From what I'm reading... Trump started calm and strong... then that faded away fast and he lost it.

I think he should have won this with ease... but he handed it to her.

I don't think he's hitting her nearly as hard as he should be, but I don't think he's handed it to her either. I'm not expecting a huge bump either way.

 

[jamil]

He had the chance to bring up the emails. He totally whiffed. Then it's gone south since.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

He had the chance to bring up the emails. He totally whiffed. Then it's gone south since.

Not to litter this pristine thread with debate talk... but why in the world would he avoid the easy attacks? Almost like... etc etc.

 

[jamil]

Not to litter this pristine thread with debate talk... but why in the world would he avoid the easy attacks? Almost like... etc etc.

Oops. Damn phone. Wrong thread.

 

[Twangbanger]

Not to litter this pristine thread with debate talk... but why in the world would he avoid the easy attacks? Almost like... etc etc.

Except that he didn't whiff, he _did_ bring it up, he just "saved" it as ammo for when the tax issue inevitably came up, and it was the first big line of the night.

You know, it really _is_ possible to pry yourself off Facebook for 90 minutes and actually _watch_ what you're commenting about. It's almost like you're, etc., etc.,

 

[KLB]

Except that he didn't whiff, he _did_ bring it up, he just "saved" it as ammo for when the tax issue inevitably came up, and it was the first big line of the night.

You know, it really _is_ possible to pry yourself off Facebook for 90 minutes and actually _watch_ what you're commenting about. It's almost like you're, etc., etc.,

That is not a topic he should be "saving". It should be more like

 

[ArcadiaGP]

That is not a topic he should be "saving". It should be more like

It's ok. They have to pretend he's holding out for the "perfect moment". Nothing else would make sense, right?

When it's December, they'll keep saying he's waiting for the perfect moment to bring up the hard-hitting stuff.

He isn't going to do what they so desperately want him to do. And, because I saw it in your quoted post... I've never touched Facebook in my life.

(OP = Trump here)

 

[Twangbanger]

It's ok. They have to pretend he's holding out for the "perfect moment". Nothing else would make sense, right?

When it's December, they'll keep saying he's waiting for the perfect moment to bring up the hard-hitting stuff.

He isn't going to do what they so desperately want him to do. And, because I saw it in your quoted post... I've never touched Facebook in my life.

(OP = Trump here)

K, so we established you didn't watch, then?

I know the AH won't deliver. I'm just curious how many other "non-watcher" people you spread news of the alleged "whiff" to on twitter, before you found out it wasn't, in fact, actually true.

 

[jamil]

K, so we established you didn't watch, then?

I know the AH won't deliver. I'm just curious how many other "non-watcher" people you spread news of the alleged "whiff" to on twitter, before you found out it wasn't, in fact, actually true.

I'm the one who said he whiffed. Do you honestly think he didn't? He allowed her to pivot off from the vulnerable topics and maneuver to her areas of strength. During the "security" discussion after she pivoted to her strengths, she put him on the defensive the rest of the debate. That pivot was the moment Trump lost.

I thought going in, Trump needed to prevent from seeming more honest than she is. That's her biggest vulnerability. People don't trust her. But Trump let her get away with sounding apologetic over the emails and not bringing up the Clinton Foundation. I think the point that she won in the debate was coming off as more honest than she is.

And here's the biggest whiff, Trump needed to hammer her on emails much harder. The security question was a prime opportunity wasted after letting her get away with the apology for the email thing. Cyber security was a way to get that topic back into discussion.

Just talk about how Hillary Clinton regards security. Go into the details. The lies. The coverups. Then, when he's done with that he could proceed to Hillary's policy of selling government access to foreigners for pay. Present it as this is how Hillary does "security". And nail her for attempting a feeble apology and then thinking "taking responsibility" means no consequences. "My bad" doesn't cover that.

I think the reason he didn't nail her more on all that, contrary to G's insistence that Trump is on Hillary's side, he didn't prepare. 2/3s of the way in, he seemed to have just run out of material. I mean, you're asked a question about cyber security and all you got is your 10 year old "wiz"? C'mon, man. Give me a break. The ***** conducted classified business on private email and tried to cover it up! Yeah, damn straight he whiffed on that. Had he been prepared maybe he'd have thought to pound her with it all night long.

 

[jamil]

Oh. One more thing. Her little "stamina" zinger. That gave her a sort of "you're no Jack Kennedy" moment that I think Trump could have taken away, at least a little.

He had already nailed her on her failures in the ME. So bring those up again. Okay, fine. 118 countries visited. Does failing really require stamina? For all that travel: nothing to show for it but failures and dead bodies. Libya/Benghazi. Iran. Iraq. Syria. ISIS. Arab Spring. Egypt. Russian Reset. Etcetera, etcetera, on and on. So, is merely traveling an accomplishment now? People travel for leisure. It's hard work that wears people out. Is "work" that achieves nothing really all that physically grueling?

I was yelling at my TV.

 

[Twangbanger]

... I was yelling at my TV.

I was yelling at my telly too. I think he missed a lot of opportunities. But we have to define terms, and a whiff is when no wood touches the ball. Clearly that did not happen. A pop foul over the left field line? Now you're sounding like a more rational observer.

I, like you, would have liked him to hammer the emails all night. For the record, I wish he'd have promised a special prosecutor and a new FBI chief, if elected.

But remember, there are two more debates, and the first "chess move," if you will, smoked out Hillary's whole defense for the email thing: "I made a mistake." There is plenty more that can be done with that, now that the defense has shown its formation.

And do remember, the question was...paraphrasing...what would YOU do, to prevent the loser second-generation offspring of an honest Arab manager of the local license branch, from weaponizing his mind on the internet, buying a ton of Tannerite, and blowing the legs off fifty walkers in the Altoona, PA gay pride march? How would you answer that? Deflect the question by talking about Hillary's emails some more? That doesn't answer the question. Set up an even more intrusive NSA surveillance state? The Ron Paul people won't like that.

So yes, I would have preferred that he hit her harder. But I think we now see, Trump is a complete neophyte outsider, and is only being prepared well enough to minimize embarrassment to down-ballot Republican congressmen (witness his impeccable talking points on "race"), not to actually win the Presidency. They will make sure he doesn't say anything off-color about blacks, latinos, or muslims. But on the "hitting Hillary and defeating her" task, he will have to figure that out on his own. We'll just have to cross fingers and hope he learns.

 

[T.Lex]

AZ appears consistently within the MOE, so count it as a tie. Has gone R for president since 1996. That might offset gains in IA for Trump.

 

[bwframe]

[FONT=&amp]LA Times[/FONT][FONT=&amp]

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]As of [FONT=&amp]Sep. 28, 2016[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=&amp].[/FONT][FONT=&amp]

Hillary Clinton [FONT=&amp]42.1% Donald Trump [FONT=&amp]46.2%[/FONT]
Area of uncertainty [FONT=&amp]Based on 2,211 respondents[/FONT][/FONT]
[/FONT]

 

[T.Lex]

[FONT=&amp]LA Times[/FONT][FONT=&amp]

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]As of [FONT=&amp]Sep. 28, 2016[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=&amp].[/FONT][FONT=&amp]

Hillary Clinton [FONT=&amp]42.1% Donald Trump [FONT=&amp]46.2%[/FONT]
Area of uncertainty [FONT=&amp]Based on 2,211 respondents[/FONT][/FONT]
[/FONT]

My friend, that is a singularly bad poll to watch and has no business in this EC thread.

First, it is not related to the EC at all . It is a generic "who do you like" and "who do you think will win" poll.

Second, the methodology is focused on a pre-selected 3,000 member group, with 1/7th being invited to respond each day.
The USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll | Understanding America Study

Third, it isn't all as rosy as you think:

We ask voters who they expect to see win, regardless of which candidate they support. Over the years, asking voters their expectation about which candidate will win often has proved to predict elections more reliably than asking how they plan to vote. That’s particularly true when the election is still many weeks away.

HRC is winning that 50-44.

By all means, it is a novelty for the general election thread.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

6 point swing from pre-debate Reuters/Ipsos poll. It was tied

New Reuters/Ipsos nat'l poll of likely voters:

2-WAY
Clinton 44
Trump 38

4-WAY
Clinton 42
Trump 38
Johnson 7
Stein 2

Sept. 22-26, +/-3.5%

 

[MisterChester]

It's really hard to believe Clinton is leading by that much nationally but losing by the same amount in Ohio. I think the polls aren't as trustworthy this time around.

 

[T.Lex]

It's really hard to believe Clinton is leading by that much nationally but losing by the same amount in Ohio. I think the polls aren't as trustworthy this time around.

Ohio is interesting, geo-politically. Lots of Union, but still closer to "midwesterny" than East Coast. The primary numbers were interesting, when it comes to measuring the respective bases of each party.

I'm not surprised it is leaning/has broken toward Trump.

 

[Ericpwp]

There will be buses from Chicago full of "voters".