The Unrealistic Mentality of the Modern Survivalist

[LowerSW]

OK so I went to
"Fernando "FerFAL" Aguirre" website to read the essay as written.Certainly some good information in it and looks to be worthy of a more thorough read. However, in addition to the one section of the essay that was quoted here I also found the following points.
"Anyway, a city that goes without gas and light for more than two weeks is a death trap, get out of there before it’s too late."
"When it comes to food, cities suck in a crisis. It is usually the lack of food or the impossibility to acquire it that starts the rioting and looting when TSHTF.....Of course that those that live in the country and have some land and animals were better prepared food-wise. "
"So, where to go? The concrete jungle is dangerous and so is living away from it all, on your own. The solution is to stay away from the cities but in groups, either by living in a small town-community or sub division, or if you have friends or family that think as you do, form your own small community."
"Gas has decreased in quality as well, there is little gas."
"Besides gold coins, buy a lot of small gold rings and other jewelry. They should be less expensive than gold coins, and if the SHTF bad, you’ll not be loosing money, selling premium quality gold coins for the price of junk gold. If I could travel back in time, I’d buy a small bag worth of gold rings.....So, my advice, if you are preparing for a small economical crisis, gold coins make sense.....Even though things are bad, I can go to a bank down town and get paid for what a gold coin is truly worth, same goes for pure silver"
"There are no "bandit’s law" anymore. One used to hear people talk about "You shouldn’t resist a robbery, give them what they want and they’ll go away". That holds true no more."

I suggest you read what he has written, using what you know about your own situtation and location. Also remember, he did survive it.


http://ferfal.blogspot.com/2008/10/thoughts-on-urban-survival-2005.html

 

[CathyInBlue]

How far outside of the "urban area" is this hypothetical "subdivision" of friends and family or small-town-like community where people can grow their own food and take their own security in their own hands? 1 mile? 2? 5? 10?

 

[churchmouse]

How far outside of the "urban area" is this hypothetical "subdivision" of friends and family or small-town-like community where people can grow their own food and take their own security in their own hands? 1 mile? 2? 5? 10?

That is a very good question.

 

[BigMatt]

In my opinion, there is nowhere in Indiana that will be safe. If you are far enough from one town, you are too close to another.

I live over 35 miles from Indianapolis, but I am 4 miles from New Castle.

Also, we aren't talking about thugs. Everyone turns into a thug when they, or someone they care about is hungry.

Finally, probably the biggest difference between USA and Argentina is the amount of guns. We have almost 89 guns per 100 people here vs. about 10 guns per 100 people there. I think the rogue bandit mindset would be a lot different with a lot more people able to defend themselves here.

 

[churchmouse]

In my opinion, there is nowhere in Indiana that will be safe. If you are far enough from one town, you are too close to another.

I live over 35 miles from Indianapolis, but I am 4 miles from New Castle.

Also, we aren't talking about thugs. Everyone turns into a thug when they, or someone they care about is hungry.

Finally, probably the biggest difference between USA and Argentina is the amount of guns. We have almost 89 guns per 100 people here vs. about 10 guns per 100 people there. I think the rogue bandit mindset would be a lot different with a lot more people able to defend themselves here.

True "But"....look at all the successful home invasions. They are not defending themselves.
Yes, every one turns raider when the kids are hungry.

 

[Electronrider]

Should the balloon ever go up, each and every one of my friends and family knows to come find me. They know I prep, they know I enjoy getting ready for the end of the world as a hobby. I also know that without a LOT of people and the scalability of food production, that my family is a sitting duck out in the country for roving gangs. In a serious event, not only will the city folk be coming to the country, you will have every bubba out there with a gun hunting for food because they do not prep. As time goes on and they get more desperate, the small homestead type places will become more and more enticing targets to hit.

To be honest, I am more worries about bubba and a few of his friends who know woodcraft and are good hunters more than the golden horde from the cities. A couple of well hidden snipers surrounding a homestead would be far more dangerous than a dozen gang bangers assaulting the front gate so to speak.

FerFal has some great writings. He has witnessed first hand a societal semi-collapse. Read what he ahs to say and think on how that would transfer to an American situation. It is certainly worth the time to read and distill his thoughts. It is by no means a manual on how to prepare, but is certainly good food for thought.

 

[Libertarian01]

To All,

I generally agree with the points made in the OP, with of course certain caveats.

I have usually agreed with the idea of a small, organized group having the best chance of surviving any SHTF event, whether from weather, financial, or social upheaval.

The problem is in an extended event there will always be someone bigger and tougher than you/we are! It could me the Federal military, a rogue national guard unit, or a large "militia/bandit/survival" group that has access to heavy firepower!

No matter who it is, the smaller the survivalist is, the less it takes to overpower him/her. A lone survivalist family of six (6) is equaled in number by six (6). Say they have planned properly and have solid defenses, so they are worth two for one. Fine, they are equaled by 12. That is not much. After that they become outnumbered and overfirepowered by 13. Let us not forget that this 12 or 13 may also have surprises of their own! They may already have a well worked out tactic of assault that has been effective multiple times in the past. Or they may have explosives, a high caliber rifle, or a simple bulldozer once they know where to put it! Not much will stop a bulldozer if they think you have something valuable.

I do believe that this article illustrates how good, decent people need to work with others of a similar mindset and moral compass to survive - AND rebuild. The idea of simple survival is necessary but if we don't have a goal to work toward we will slowly degenerate.

With the numbers you can simply drive off the minor threats without hopefully firing a single shot. With larger groups you may not be in a position to "win", but you are in a better position to negotiate a "more amicable" deal.

Small groups also allow for specialization, which is critical to growth! Let the guy/gal who can hunt, hunt. Let the farmer, farm. Let the guy/gal who can repair - repair! Let the person who can make fuel do so. This is the goal. The problem arises in finding the critical number of people with the right skills who can maximize potential efficiency while avoiding an initially too large of a number that consumes more than it can provide!

Each event will automatically make certain skills more valuable and other skills less so. Each event will be completely unique unto itself and render certain needs and issues both higher and lower on the priorities list. It is up to us to use our brains, remain flexible, and adjust both our tactics, mindset, and priorities depending upon the nature of the event. Our ability to best estimate the duration of the event and its scope will better allow us to respond with the most effective course of action. This does not mean we don't prepare for a certain threshold - say six (6) monthes of food, 10,000 rounds of pistol ammo, 300 gallons of water, etc; but if we can better estimate the duration we will know how to best ration the store of supplies that we have available.

Regards,

Doug

 

[trailman]

To All,

I generally agree with the points made in the OP, with of course certain caveats.

I have usually agreed with the idea of a small, organized group having the best chance of surviving any SHTF event, whether from weather, financial, or social upheaval.

The problem is in an extended event there will always be someone bigger and tougher than you/we are! It could me the Federal military, a rogue national guard unit, or a large "militia/bandit/survival" group that has access to heavy firepower!

I think this is spot on and something we have always struggled with in finding like minded people to band together. When I read the OP and subsequent comments, this post over on survivalblog came to mind, its something that's always stuck with me. I think the biggest threat after the golden horde will be essentially roving armed gangs with the material manpower and will to take you out. Even a dedicated gunman can wipe you out in a month of simple occasional long range shots. In a total SHTF meltdown I think we would have to consider creating armed enclaves of people as in groups of 100+.

Retreat Security: I Am Your Worst Nightmare, by Jeff T. - SurvivalBlog.com



For what its worth

As another thread there should really be discussions on societal changes that would take place. I think there is a lot of fantasy in the prepper community that there will be some idealistic return to first principles etc etc, Christian charity and all that. When more likely I see a feudal system of warlords going on. Whether its the local guy that stands up and people follow because most people find it easier to follow than lead or Hector the gang banger who finds to easier to just put a bullet in the head of "non-followers".

 

[6mm Shoot]

churchmouse in the area I live in, there was no empty shelves in the stores around here. All the stores had stuff around here. The big storm either didn't scare people around here or more people stock more food around here than around where you live.

Then if you live around Indianapolis you have a lot more people living around you than I have. I live forty miles out side of Cincinnati, Ohio in Indiana. I live just outside of Rising Sun, Indiana. Rising Sun has one IGA and a couple of quickie marts. They all had stuff on their shelves before the storm and after. The closest Walmart is twenty miles away. It also had stuff on its shelves. So for reference that is why I said it would take a week to empty the stores.

 

[churchmouse]

churchmouse in the area I live in, there was no empty shelves in the stores around here. All the stores had stuff around here. The big storm either didn't scare people around here or more people stock more food around here than around where you live.

Then if you live around Indianapolis you have a lot more people living around you than I have. I live forty miles out side of Cincinnati, Ohio in Indiana. I live just outside of Rising Sun, Indiana. Rising Sun has one IGA and a couple of quickie marts. They all had stuff on their shelves before the storm and after. The closest Walmart is twenty miles away. It also had stuff on its shelves. So for reference that is why I said it would take a week to empty the stores.

Folks who live out like that are more evenly minded as to keeping a well stocked pantry. If it is a 6 mile one way roll for bread/milk then keep more on hand.....

I would estimate that the average household in my area may have 2 or 3 days food for the entire family at any one time. The lines at the drive through's are solid at dinner time. If the S does HTF and it is longer than an average disaster the streets will become very dangerous around here.

 

[easy]

... I will already be at my cabin in the woods...

I'm already there. Miles from the pavement with layers of obstacals between there and me.

 

[shibumiseeker]

I'm already there. Miles from the pavement with layers of obstacals between there and me.

Leadeye and I are the same here.

I am always amused at the people who know exactly how the collapse is going to happen and exactly what it will look like in the aftermath.

Curiously the only scenario they inevitably paint is a "Road Warrior" type or the like, the type of formula that every Hollywood movie portrays with the roving bands.

History does not bear this out. The history of societal collapses is extremely widely varied and the simple fact of the matter is that what prepares you well for one TEOTWAWKI scenario may be the wrong thing to do in another scenario, both of which have historical examples so are not beyond the realm of possibility. Even roving bands tend to be limited in scope, though they certainly can happen.

A GOOD survivalist is one who can remain flexible and adapt to changing situations and who has contingency plans. Playing the "well, you can't survive THIS" game is a no-win proposition because of course you can always come up with a scenario that can't be survived. But the person who expends considerable resources preparing for the low-probability scenarios while completely ignoring high probability scenarios (as most of these commentators inevitably do) is a fools errand, and they remind me of computer gamers whose only shooting experience comes from playing telling me how weapons and tactics work in the real world.

 

[churchmouse]

Leadeye and I are the same here.

I am always amused at the people who know exactly how the collapse is going to happen and exactly what it will look like in the aftermath.

Curiously the only scenario they inevitably paint is a "Road Warrior" type or the like, the type of formula that every Hollywood movie portrays with the roving bands.

History does not bear this out. The history of societal collapses is extremely widely varied and the simple fact of the matter is that what prepares you well for one TEOTWAWKI scenario may be the wrong thing to do in another scenario, both of which have historical examples so are not beyond the realm of possibility. Even roving bands tend to be limited in scope, though they certainly can happen.

A GOOD survivalist is one who can remain flexible and adapt to changing situations and who has contingency plans. Playing the "well, you can't survive THIS" game is a no-win proposition because of course you can always come up with a scenario that can't be survived. But the person who expends considerable resources preparing for the low-probability scenarios while completely ignoring high probability scenarios (as most of these commentators inevitably do) is a fools errand, and they remind me of computer gamers whose only shooting experience comes from playing telling me how weapons and tactics work in the real world.

There is some truth in what you say but no nation in history has been as well armed as this one. In a bad collapse yes, there would be some serious struggles over food/shelter and the like. I know you live on a large piece of ground and not exposed to areas like up here in the city. I watch these folks closely. I see what they are capable of. Not a knock as most of what you post I read and totally agree with. Informed and on point.
If we have a huge melt down of the infrastructure it will not be pretty. If it is an isolated situation where outside help can get to the area not so much. If there is a light at the end of the tunnel most folks can hang on. If that light goes out then honor and morality might start to diminish. Again, this is a well armed society. That will play heavily into a serious meltdown.

 

[radar44]

In regards to : The roaming hood gangs rolling down the street , loud , cocky , smug and happy .

They don't realize that the same laws they seem to hate so much are the laws that keep the "normal " people from '' filling them with holes '' ON SIGHT , like stray dogs .

The fact that it is NOW illegal to xxx them is the only reason they're happy (and alive).

The police ( right now - pre- SHTF ) are protecting the "thugs " . Good people with guns far , far , far , outnumber the gangs .

When it is no longer illegal to clean up the streets , there is going to be a WHOLE LOT of street cleaning .

It won't take very long before " the colors " will be left at home . >

 

[Libertarian01]

To All,

I have to agree with these later points being made.

I'll start with my own little view of either TEOTWAWKI or SHTF situations in the United States. In my opinion there have been two (2) TEOTWAWKI situations and two (2) (possibly three (3)) major SHTF situations.

The two (2) TEOTWAWKI situations were the American Revolution and the Civil War. In each our standing government either collapsed or was ripped in two. In each of these the ability to maintain law and order was pushed beyond the breaking point and government protection was not readily available due to severe strains.

In the first situation, the Revolution, the States did try to maintain a semblance of order, and for the most part they succeeded! There were certainly issues of mob rule and minor states of anarchy while the State governments attempted to shift to home rule while at the same time granting what resources they could to their rebellion. As far as I know no State was overthrown during this crisis and it cannot be said that anarchy appeared anywhere for any length of time.

In the second situation, the Civil War, the same thing occurred, only this time to a lesser degree. In the north Federal and State law prevailed and maintained order. Here in Indiana the Governor had to call out the Militia to impose order on joining the North. Apparently at the time we Hoosiers were very sympathetic to the southern situation. With that said, the State militia did maintain order and our State did not descend into anarchy.

While in the South the States were thrown back to the situation of the States during the Revolution. They broke from the Federal government and this time maintained an easier home rule while attempting to shift their resources to the Confederacy instead of the Federal government. Again, while I am certain that the Southern States did have issues with some towns or counties for the most part law and order were maintained.

During the Civil War the only areas facing severe problems were the territories. Each had threats from the Indians, from within, and without. Each of these territories had citizens with radically differing sympathies and law and order did break down in some areas. This chaos, however severe it may have been, was for the most part laid to rest within a year of the end of the Civil War. So that would mean a state of anarchy for about five (5) years, and only to limited sections of US territory.

For SHTF scenarios of economic collapse there were two (2). Both were economic depressions. The first in the 1890's which was extremely bad. The second more familiar was the 1930s. The 1930s also saw heavy environmental damage due in part to farming practices in the west and midwest. The dustbowl caused major problems coupled with economic collapse. In each one of these situations the effect was national and experienced by most Americans, yet also neither saw a significant collapse of law and order, or even more infrastructure.

The final major SHTF situation was Hurricane Katrina. The area devastated and extent of damage was severe. In this case though damage was regional and minimal to our overall national stability. Here in Indiana I know we saw the effects of increased costs of building materials as massive demands were placed on the supply chain by hurricane damaged regions attempting to rebuild. Yet, that is what most Americans felt, a minor to moderate dent in our pocketbooks. In some areas of Katrina there was a loss of law and order, but that was only temporary. I know this is very easy for me to say in the comfort of my own home here, never having experienced it. I mean in no way to diminish the horror and suffering that some did experience. That said, keeping it in the context of our entire country it was minimal and localized. We are now learning that things were not as bad as initial reports coming out of the sports arena in New Orleans. Though they could have been MUCH better initial exagerations did occur to sell probably sell media coverage.

In the first three (3) situations we were solely reliant on muscle power. The train was our only relevant mechanical contrivance, and then most people did not use it. Even in the 1890s depression we used horse power for most work for most people.

The 1930s was our first real shift toward electricity and "modern" living. However, with that in mind, most people knew how to live without it! If you turned off the power to most folks they would have been familiar with alternatives, albeit less effective. They still knew how to get the job done!

Hurricane Katrina in 2005 gives us our best look into what could happen in modern America with the infrastructure damaged and the grid down. While I commented earlier as to the limited loss of law & order during and following this disaster it cannot be overlooked. Stores were looted down to the bones and a total lack of any immediate supplies were available for most law abiding citizens. Travel was severely limited due to either flooded vehicles, flooded roads, or simply debris within the roads. Those who may have had the proper equipment, such as chainsaws or heavy equipment, could hardly use them for much more than localized solutions. Even then fuel wasn't readily available and chainsaw blades were hardly at the top of anyones priority list. If a bulldozer had a malfunction it would have been nigh impossible to get a mechanic with the right part to fix it in a timely fashion.

In a thought, things fell much farther, much faster in areas of Katrina than in the first four (4) events that I briefly reviewed. Why?

I don't know. I am not a great historian or sociologist. If I am to hypothesize I would say that in the first four (4) people had a greater sense of community. They had similar moral and ethical views of what was expected of them. They placed a greater value on FAMILY and faith. Even though the Catholics may not be appreciated by the Baptists in some communities, within themselves they worked together within their own. As a point on this here in Fort Wayne I was once given a brief history of Saint Josephs Hospital by a nun. She explained that the first Catholic hospital had to be built out of town, southeast, as no one wanted a Catholic hospital in town. Nonetheless, it was built and eventually moved downtown.

I would also venture to guess that everyone was raised with a greater work ethic in the first four (4) scenarios. Through all of them were were mostly an agrarian nation and rising before the crack of down for children to do their chores before heading to school was standard. Even in the cities where they may not have had the labor to do, children and parents alike understood the concept of a strong work ethic.

Along those lines we had a more stable family structure. Divorce was practically unheard of and families remained close to each other. Even when a child married they normally didn't move outside the county let alone the state. In 2005 such was not the case. According to the CDC there is a 50% chance of divorce within 20 years. Of those who remarry the odds are quite high that divorce is again on horizon. This then leads to far less stable family structure.

In 2005 we also had for the first time a group of people almost solely dependent upon the government and infrastructure. By government I mean welfare, SS checks, and other "economic" needs being met. By infrastructure I mean "physical" things brought to us: water, electricity, communications, sanitation and so on. While we all have this dependence to some degree those in cities naturally experience a greater dependence upon external actors to maintain our lifestyle. When that lifestyle collapses the fall is much farther and far harder than in previous times.

So what does this show us today in preparing? I believe it shows that if the government (ie. police, fire, SS checks) is lacking we can do OK, with problems but OK. However, rip out the current infrastructure and anarchy can rear its head extremely quickly and brutally. People are impacted to a much greater degree without electricity and react in a far more extreme manner in an attempt to remedy their own situation. Couple that with a greater lack of community in urban environments compared to rural and this compounds the potential for damage done.

We are lucky for the most part that severe infrastructure damage is unlikely in most areas of Indiana. The worst we can see is a tornado on a small scale or loss of power due to winds or ice on a larger scale. These should be the first two (2) events to plan for. Extra food and water for a short term event. Backup generators for those who don't already have them, at least to run critical equipment. After this it becomes harder to plan for on a statewide level. Flooding damage for those along the Ohio River needs to be planned for, along with certain other areas of the state. Here in Fort Wayne where I am currently located flooding threat is minimal, yet needs to be accounted for. In my case especially when trying to get to my bug out location. As I have tried before during severe flooding to check on things I have been forced to reroute at least five (5) times due to streets or roads being impassable. Not impossible, but certainly no easy thing if I were forced to flee. For you, you need to consider your own plans on what a lone bridge or road being out could delay you.

When I put electricity in the list for AC do NOT think just of yourselves and of it being a luxury! In the heatwave in Europe in 2003 almost 15,000 French citizens died! Most were elderly. Europeans homes aren't all built with AC as are most modern American homes, and most of Europe didn't experience the high temperatures like that year. If power goes out in July or August we will all need to make certain that our elderly loved ones are kept cool, not for luxuries sake but for LIFEs sake. We do not often realize just how critical some of our modern "luxuries" really are life saving necessities for some of us.

Regards,

Doug

 

[churchmouse]

To All,

I have to agree with these later points being made.

I'll start with my own little view of either TEOTWAWKI or SHTF situations in the United States. In my opinion there have been two (2) TEOTWAWKI situations and two (2) (possibly three (3)) major SHTF situations.

The two (2) TEOTWAWKI situations were the American Revolution and the Civil War. In each our standing government either collapsed or was ripped in two. In each of these the ability to maintain law and order was pushed beyond the breaking point and government protection was not readily available due to severe strains.

In the first situation, the Revolution, the States did try to maintain a semblance of order, and for the most part they succeeded! There were certainly issues of mob rule and minor states of anarchy while the State governments attempted to shift to home rule while at the same time granting what resources they could to their rebellion. As far as I know no State was overthrown during this crisis and it cannot be said that anarchy appeared anywhere for any length of time.

In the second situation, the Civil War, the same thing occurred, only this time to a lesser degree. In the north Federal and State law prevailed and maintained order. Here in Indiana the Governor had to call out the Militia to impose order on joining the North. Apparently at the time we Hoosiers were very sympathetic to the southern situation. With that said, the State militia did maintain order and our State did not descend into anarchy.

While in the South the States were thrown back to the situation of the States during the Revolution. They broke from the Federal government and this time maintained an easier home rule while attempting to shift their resources to the Confederacy instead of the Federal government. Again, while I am certain that the Southern States did have issues with some towns or counties for the most part law and order were maintained.

During the Civil War the only areas facing severe problems were the territories. Each had threats from the Indians, from within, and without. Each of these territories had citizens with radically differing sympathies and law and order did break down in some areas. This chaos, however severe it may have been, was for the most part laid to rest within a year of the end of the Civil War. So that would mean a state of anarchy for about five (5) years, and only to limited sections of US territory.

For SHTF scenarios of economic collapse there were two (2). Both were economic depressions. The first in the 1890's which was extremely bad. The second more familiar was the 1930s. The 1930s also saw heavy environmental damage due in part to farming practices in the west and midwest. The dustbowl caused major problems coupled with economic collapse. In each one of these situations the effect was national and experienced by most Americans, yet also neither saw a significant collapse of law and order, or even more infrastructure.

The final major SHTF situation was Hurricane Katrina. The area devastated and extent of damage was severe. In this case though damage was regional and minimal to our overall national stability. Here in Indiana I know we saw the effects of increased costs of building materials as massive demands were placed on the supply chain by hurricane damaged regions attempting to rebuild. Yet, that is what most Americans felt, a minor to moderate dent in our pocketbooks. In some areas of Katrina there was a loss of law and order, but that was only temporary. I know this is very easy for me to say in the comfort of my own home here, never having experienced it. I mean in no way to diminish the horror and suffering that some did experience. That said, keeping it in the context of our entire country it was minimal and localized. We are now learning that things were not as bad as initial reports coming out of the sports arena in New Orleans. Though they could have been MUCH better initial exagerations did occur to sell probably sell media coverage.

In the first three (3) situations we were solely reliant on muscle power. The train was our only relevant mechanical contrivance, and then most people did not use it. Even in the 1890s depression we used horse power for most work for most people.

The 1930s was our first real shift toward electricity and "modern" living. However, with that in mind, most people knew how to live without it! If you turned off the power to most folks they would have been familiar with alternatives, albeit less effective. They still knew how to get the job done!

Hurricane Katrina in 2005 gives us our best look into what could happen in modern America with the infrastructure damaged and the grid down. While I commented earlier as to the limited loss of law & order during and following this disaster it cannot be overlooked. Stores were looted down to the bones and a total lack of any immediate supplies were available for most law abiding citizens. Travel was severely limited due to either flooded vehicles, flooded roads, or simply debris within the roads. Those who may have had the proper equipment, such as chainsaws or heavy equipment, could hardly use them for much more than localized solutions. Even then fuel wasn't readily available and chainsaw blades were hardly at the top of anyones priority list. If a bulldozer had a malfunction it would have been nigh impossible to get a mechanic with the right part to fix it in a timely fashion.

In a thought, things fell much farther, much faster in areas of Katrina than in the first four (4) events that I briefly reviewed. Why?

I don't know. I am not a great historian or sociologist. If I am to hypothesize I would say that in the first four (4) people had a greater sense of community. They had similar moral and ethical views of what was expected of them. They placed a greater value on FAMILY and faith. Even though the Catholics may not be appreciated by the Baptists in some communities, within themselves they worked together within their own. As a point on this here in Fort Wayne I was once given a brief history of Saint Josephs Hospital by a nun. She explained that the first Catholic hospital had to be built out of town, southeast, as no one wanted a Catholic hospital in town. Nonetheless, it was built and eventually moved downtown.

I would also venture to guess that everyone was raised with a greater work ethic in the first four (4) scenarios. Through all of them were were mostly an agrarian nation and rising before the crack of down for children to do their chores before heading to school was standard. Even in the cities where they may not have had the labor to do, children and parents alike understood the concept of a strong work ethic.

Along those lines we had a more stable family structure. Divorce was practically unheard of and families remained close to each other. Even when a child married they normally didn't move outside the county let alone the state. In 2005 such was not the case. According to the CDC there is a 50% chance of divorce within 20 years. Of those who remarry the odds are quite high that divorce is again on horizon. This then leads to far less stable family structure.

In 2005 we also had for the first time a group of people almost solely dependent upon the government and infrastructure. By government I mean welfare, SS checks, and other "economic" needs being met. By infrastructure I mean "physical" things brought to us: water, electricity, communications, sanitation and so on. While we all have this dependence to some degree those in cities naturally experience a greater dependence upon external actors to maintain our lifestyle. When that lifestyle collapses the fall is much farther and far harder than in previous times.

So what does this show us today in preparing? I believe it shows that if the government (ie. police, fire, SS checks) is lacking we can do OK, with problems but OK. However, rip out the current infrastructure and anarchy can rear its head extremely quickly and brutally. People are impacted to a much greater degree without electricity and react in a far more extreme manner in an attempt to remedy their own situation. Couple that with a greater lack of community in urban environments compared to rural and this compounds the potential for damage done.

We are lucky for the most part that severe infrastructure damage is unlikely in most areas of Indiana. The worst we can see is a tornado on a small scale or loss of power due to winds or ice on a larger scale. These should be the first two (2) events to plan for. Extra food and water for a short term event. Backup generators for those who don't already have them, at least to run critical equipment. After this it becomes harder to plan for on a statewide level. Flooding damage for those along the Ohio River needs to be planned for, along with certain other areas of the state. Here in Fort Wayne where I am currently located flooding threat is minimal, yet needs to be accounted for. In my case especially when trying to get to my bug out location. As I have tried before during severe flooding to check on things I have been forced to reroute at least five (5) times due to streets or roads being impassable. Not impossible, but certainly no easy thing if I were forced to flee. For you, you need to consider your own plans on what a lone bridge or road being out could delay you.

When I put electricity in the list for AC do NOT think just of yourselves and of it being a luxury! In the heatwave in Europe in 2003 almost 15,000 French citizens died! Most were elderly. Europeans homes aren't all built with AC as are most modern American homes, and most of Europe didn't experience the high temperatures like that year. If power goes out in July or August we will all need to make certain that our elderly loved ones are kept cool, not for luxuries sake but for LIFEs sake. We do not often realize just how critical some of our modern "luxuries" really are life saving necessities for some of us.

Regards,

Doug

On point. As always.

 

[1988-4551]

More on force multipliers coupled with fundamental common sense like light and noise discipline. Establishing a well hidden lp/op and not walking straight to and from it.

 

[kml]

Flexibility is definitely the key. You can not prepare for every possibility. Personally, I make a list of the most likely to least likely, most severe to least severe scenarios with a list of what would be worth having in those instances. The items that show up on the most lists are the items I work on first. Items on many lists with more than one use are even higher on my to-do list.

I bought and moved to my "bugout" location 9 years ago. Even though it required me to travel for work and caused a reduction in my income, I did it none the less. My reasoning? I realized that living in a city and "getting out" when SHTF is exactly what half the population of that city will be trying to do while the other half will, actively or passively, be impeding you. Now I may well never see a SHTF scenario in this country in my lifetime but I already have the resources to make the best of many of those situations if one does. As a bonus, I'm happier! I read folks talk about the jackwads they have to deal with daily and I don't miss it. Don't get me wrong, we hillbillies have no shortage of idiots but they are generally fewer, better behaved and we know who they are. If a stranger approaches me at a gas station and asks for a cigarette, I'm not ready to "clear leather" on the guy like I've read about nearly weekly on INGO. Could bad things happen here..yes. Am I being naive, I don't think so.

I agree with the premise that taking one first hand experience and trying to apply it to all possible situations is unwise but equally (ore more so) unwise is basing your plans on fiction. This is something many preppers love to do. The "mad max" mentality is one I've noted in some of my previous post on INGO on this subject and it is very common. Unfortunately much of recorded history is, at best, incomplete and at worst...fictional. The chronologically further away the event the more interpretive the accounts become. Taking the recorded histories of events of previous centuries too literally is something I would hesitate to do. In the day getting anything published took resources - resources that were in the control of people with agendas. The victor writes history in their favor.

Even in the internet age with the ability of anyone to "publish" information, the account is skewed by agenda. "google" gun violence and see what you get. The results would leave most to think that the vast majority Americans think there should be much tighter control and the streets of America are flowing red from the rampant violence guns cause but a small, well financed, minority of "gun nuts" are fighting "progress" at every turn. Now is that the reality? I don't think so but a review of the published "history" could easily lead one to believe that.

Shibu mentioned in an earlier post that he finds amusement in gamers trying to tell him how weapons and tactics work in the real world - I agree with his assessment of how foolhardy (and annoying) that is. The people who have lived through SHTF scenarios view most preppers the same way. Much like their gamer counterparts, these well read preppers take any attempt to inject first hand experience into the discussion with equal disdain. They are smart and have read all about it and what someone experienced doesn't apply in "this" scenario....

 

[manley82]

well said...

 

[CathyInBlue]

Flexibility is definitely the key. You can not prepare for every possibility. Personally, I make a list of the most likely to least likely, most severe to least severe scenarios with a list of what would be worth having in those instances. The items that show up on the most lists are the items I work on first. Items on many lists with more than one use are even higher on my to-do list.

"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects."

-Robert A. Heinlein