The Republican Primary Race Is Filling Up

[T.Lex]

New Wisconsin poll has Cruz and Trump tied (within the MOE of each other). Interestingly, Kasich is a distant 3rd, but when asked head-to-head with Trump, he wins 46-44. To me, that strongly suggests that the notTrump voters are at least as motivated as Trump voters in Wisconsin.

It also makes me think that, once in the poll booth, at least some of the Kasich supporters will pull the lever for Cruz instead.

 

[jamil]

Yet another example of Ted Cruz's above-the-fray classiness:

Cruz jokes about running over Trump with a car | TheHill

I wonder if Trump did the same how the perception would be then.

New Wisconsin poll has Cruz and Trump tied (within the MOE of each other). Interestingly, Kasich is a distant 3rd, but when asked head-to-head with Trump, he wins 46-44. To me, that strongly suggests that the notTrump voters are at least as motivated as Trump voters in Wisconsin.

It also makes me think that, once in the poll booth, at least some of the Kasich supporters will pull the lever for Cruz instead.

I've learned not to take the polling seriously. The only poll that matters is the one where registered voters actually cast ballots.

 

[MisterChester]

New Wisconsin poll has Cruz and Trump tied (within the MOE of each other). Interestingly, Kasich is a distant 3rd, but when asked head-to-head with Trump, he wins 46-44. To me, that strongly suggests that the notTrump voters are at least as motivated as Trump voters in Wisconsin.

It also makes me think that, once in the poll booth, at least some of the Kasich supporters will pull the lever for Cruz instead.

I don't know about that. Kasich has made it clear he's not going anywhere. Maybe if he didn't make it clear that might be the case. Kasich did very well at that town hall, I can see it at the very least making sure his original supporters still vote for him.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Probability of Donald Trump winning GOP nomination drops from 67% to 44% in past week

 

[chipbennett]

Probability of Donald Trump winning GOP nomination drops from 67% to 44% in past week

Was there a primary preference vote held in some state in the past week, and I missed it?

 

[T.Lex]

Was there a primary preference vote held in some state in the past week, and I missed it?

I think the modeling in the story took into account polling in Wisconsin which changed significantly from last week to this. It also looks like California might end up closer than earlier forecasts, which changes the equation, too.

 

[jamil]

I think the modeling in the story took into account polling in Wisconsin which changed significantly from last week to this. It also looks like California might end up closer than earlier forecasts, which changes the equation, too.

Turns out, sometimes the koolaid tastes like ****.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Trump had a bad week last week and this week. That attack on Heidi and that interview I saw with Chris Mathews (snippets anyway) are cringe worthy, even for a person that does not support Trump. Seemed like that thing with Heidi kind of hit a bit of a chord.

 

[jamil]

Trump had a bad week last week and this week. That attack on Heidi and that interview I saw with Chris Mathews (snippets anyway) are cringe worthy, even for a person that does not support Trump. Seemed like that thing with Heidi kind of hit a bit of a chord.

Eh. Trumpers don't cringe at anything. At least I've not heard anything that Trump has said that they've cringed at.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Eh. Trumpers don't cringe at anything. At least I've not heard anything that Trump has said that they've cringed at.

Probably not the hard core ones, some of which are vociferous around here. But there are probably some "go-along-with-the-crowd" types that might cool their jets as they start paying attention.

 

[Alpo]

Trumpeter Swan Song

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Indiana at the crossroads of three "Republican" Americas

 

[MisterChester]

Indiana at the crossroads of three "Republican" Americas

Ben Carson actually won a county!

Trump will probably win Indiana. Open primary, east of the Mississippi River, shares more demographics with the south than the rest of the Midwest.

 

[BugI02]

I'd look at Maine before I concluded Trump will win Indiana (do you guys have any indians left, wondering about the state name)

 

[Kutnupe14]

Ah, my home state. Solid blue. I see we still buy snake oil from Yankees.

 

[IndyDave1776]

Ah, my home state. Solid blue. I see we still buy snake oil from Yankees.

Of course. It just doesn't do to have any damned squeaky snakes, now does it?

 

[MisterChester]

I'd look at Maine before I concluded Trump will win Indiana (do you guys have any indians left, wondering about the state name)

Maine had a closed primary, and generally those favor Cruz a little more than Trump.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Sweet, SMOD2016 has a Pennsylvania constituency

 

[MisterChester]

Sweet, SMOD2016 has a Pennsylvania constituency

The only way Hillary is going to be beat is if republicans united behind Trump.

 

[Jludo]

The only way Hillary is going to be beat is if republicans united behind Trump.

Republicans clearly don't care about winning then.