The Great Ammo Bubble of 2013: popping soon

[warthog]

you are putting words in my mouth HOHN, you can't hoard something faster than its made. Or do you know a way of doing that too?

It just amazes me that you are all so short sighted.

I think you know what greed is, you live it daily and one day this will wind up screwing the rest of us.

We, or at least I, have long memories. Would it not be better to try and work as a group to end this before it causes such a huge rise if costs for us that many of us won't be able to continue to shoot as we once did? Does making money mean that much to you? If it does then don't pretend yoou don't know what I mean by bringing up greed.

 

[DIRTROAD]

I like many others have some ammo but the fear of not having any to shoot now has made us all buy up all we see till we slow down the fear buying there will be a shortage and i am as bad as everyone else for that i am sorry i will try to be smarter buyer and maybe others will do the same

 

[Hohn]

I think you know what greed is, you live it daily and one day this will wind up screwing the rest of us.

I think you're dodging. Most likely because you can't make a credible argument for your case.

Am I greedy for having a job that someone else could do-- because I am selfishly wanting an income and some reasonable standard of living?

Tell me, which self-interests are legitimate and which are 'greed'? Who's the arbiter of what a legitimate self-interest is? When does self-interest become greed?

*I* am not greedy for wanting my only brick of .22lr, but that other guy is greedy for wanting that same brick to bring his total to 10,000 rounds. In your mind, both people want the same thing, yet only ONE is greedy?

It seems to me that most of those who cry "GREED!" do so because they feel deprived of something they are entitled to. Someone ELSE'S greed is depriving them, and they are angry they are being deprived of what is rightfully theirs. Others are greedy for hoarding, but *I* am not greedy for wanting the same thing.

If we trace the causality back from deprivation to entitlement we finally stop at resource distribution. The root of the entitlement is that there is some ideal distribution of the resource (Ideal, because it satisfies my uniquely-non-greedy interests). Thus, any distribution of that resource that is other than what I find acceptable is MALdistribution and it must be REdistributed.

Did you know you held a socialist view of this?

 

[Sfrandolph]

I really hope you are right. I have been holding off for about two months now. It's hurting my practice time too.

 

[windellmc]

The problems I see with the OP's original theory are that ammo manufacturers were already at full production last summer (trying to fill that huge DHS order?) So they have no capacity to ramp up. If the demand will fall soon as hohn says there is no reason to expand capacity so it will take longer for prices to come down. Here is the other thing. A lot of people just bought their first gun. Some of them are going to like shooting and will keep using ammo. If that happens manufacturers will eventually increase capacity but we are probably talking 2-3 years before that happens. I expect supply to be tight the rest of the year and maybe prices stabilize this summer. Expect to pay 375-400 for 1k rounds of 5.56 after prices come down. Inflation sucks.

 

[Broom_jm]

Isn't this also something that would seem to also be changing? Don't you think that Starline is considering in additional brass-making capacity? You don't think CCI/ATK is considering how to make more primers?

At some point, these capacity investments WILL become profitable and they will be made-- if (and a big "if") the demand remains high.

Manufacturers don't want to invest in extra capacity only to have it sitting unused in two years. So they are willing to endure (and make us endure) a shortage like this for a good bit because they have to have some idea that there is a permanent increase in demand that will justify the additional capacity not just now, but next year and the year after that.


I don't give much weight to the anecdotes about two-year backlogs and such. So many of these orders are just markers to get in line because a reseller has no idea when things will get back to normal a little. Backlogs tend to be self-reinforcing on the macro scale: when someone hears there is a shortage, it spurs more demand (get it while you can!) and exacerbates the shortage. Everyone is scrambling to get their place in line, as if it's one of those Black Friday absurdities you read of that occur on the day formerly known as Thanksgiving.

But once it passes a tipping point, it will also self-reinforce. Once resellers see that they can actually get some product, they won't feel the need to have someone hold their spot in line, so to speak. Very many of those orders backlogged will be cancelled. They cancel, and the backlog shortens.

Word gets out that the backlog is shortening and others who were similarly "holding a spot in line" cancel their orders as well.

If the orders are placed on credit (as is usually done), it take more time for the cancellations to ramp up. If, however, there is an actual cash flow ding, then those cancellations will ramp up very quickly.

The bottom line is that the backlogs and shortages can go away almost as quickly as they came.

I don't think it will be that fast this time-- but faster than the conventional wisdom says it will be.


JMO

You seem to understand the business side of manufacturing very well and can set aside your fears long enough to grasp what is going on here. Far too many folks apparently lack the ability to do so and make their purchases on fear and impulse, which put us in this situation.

Wise gun owners had what they wanted and needed well in advance of Obama getting reelected, so they're not out there buying up whatever ammo they can find. When this madness passes, as it always does, manufacturers may have slightly increased capacity, but prices will pull back quite a bit. When it does, and when I need more reloading components, I'll buy them.

Until then, it's kinda funny watching people spend themselves silly because of a totally irrational fear that we will somehow not be allowed to buy ammunition. I mean, AMMO sales have never been a target, outside of buying huge volumes of it! Accusations of greed and conspiracy theories abound during times like this...history argues very strongly that those fears are almost certainly unwarranted.

 

[gregkl]

you are putting words in my mouth HOHN, you can't hoard something faster than its made. Or do you know a way of doing that too?

It just amazes me that you are all so short sighted.

I think you know what greed is, you live it daily and one day this will wind up screwing the rest of us.

We, or at least I, have long memories. Would it not be better to try and work as a group to end this before it causes such a huge rise if costs for us that many of us won't be able to continue to shoot as we once did? Does making money mean that much to you? If it does then don't pretend yoou don't know what I mean by bringing up greed.

I believe in the free enterprise system, but I have to agree that our own community is causing some of the issues. I was wondering how so many people can hit GM Thursday morning to buy ammo. I'm thinking; don't they have jobs to go to? Well I found out a lot of those shoppers are the same people(wives often) each week and they stand in line, buy the max amount and then flip it. I can't fault them for doing that but that doesn't mean that I'm not frustrated by it.

On another post someone said that 3 people were in Wal-Mart and there were 6 boxes of ammo left. The first buyer could have bought most if not all of it. They unanimously agreed to each take 2 boxes.

I am sure there are some out there making some decent money flipping ammo, but it is costing the shooting community as a whole. How much money will be lost in lower attendance at matches this season because people don't have ammo?

How many shooters will we lose forever because they finally get tired of it?

Or can't afford the sport anymore?

 

[medicr224]

Speaking only for myself my family and I have cut way back on shooting in a attempt to conserve our ammo supply. It does seem there is starting to be more ammo becoming available but at a cost. While shopping I have noticed that some of the chain stores are holding back on the number of boxes they are putting on the shelf and if you ask a clerk in my area at least they will sell it to you if you are not on their list of high volume buyers. Good luck to all on buying ammo

 

[warthog]

see the WoW .22 thread. Not going to chase this crap from thread to thread anymore....

I made substantive argunents for myself, you are the one still arguing semantics and lacking any real response to what I am trying to get across.

again, done here, see the above thread and join me there.

 

[TBone3006]

That is music to my ears.

 

[harleyindys]

When placing a order with our local wholesale distributer we inquired about the amo shortage . He informed us to wait a bit longer before ordering because Federal is getting ready to release 2 billion rounds to the market.

 

[Colt556]

From a quick look at ammo prices at the show yesterday things still look CRAZY! Glad I'm not buying any right now. I did buy 140 rds of FN 60 M2 Ball for $50 though.

 

[jLr]

I believe in the free enterprise system, but I have to agree that our own community is causing some of the issues. I was wondering how so many people can hit GM Thursday morning to buy ammo. I'm thinking; don't they have jobs to go to? Well I found out a lot of those shoppers are the same people(wives often) each week and they stand in line, buy the max amount and then flip it. I can't fault them for doing that but that doesn't mean that I'm not frustrated by it.

On another post someone said that 3 people were in Wal-Mart and there were 6 boxes of ammo left. The first buyer could have bought most if not all of it. They unanimously agreed to each take 2 boxes.

I am sure there are some out there making some decent money flipping ammo, but it is costing the shooting community as a whole. How much money will be lost in lower attendance at matches this season because people don't have ammo?

How many shooters will we lose forever because they finally get tired of it?

Or can't afford the sport anymore?

There is another scenario too. Let's say I need .45 ammo. Wal Mart has 9mm, but no .45. I'm gonna buy the 9mm even though I don't need it, flip it, then use that money to buy an inflated box of .45. It isn't like everyone buying ammo is in it for profit. Even if they were, who cares? You could do it too....

 

[gregkl]

I believe in the free enterprise system, I can't fault them for doing that but that doesn't mean that I'm not frustrated by it.

There is another scenario too. Let's say I need .45 ammo. Wal Mart has 9mm, but no .45. I'm gonna buy the 9mm even though I don't need it, flip it, then use that money to buy an inflated box of .45. It isn't like everyone buying ammo is in it for profit. Even if they were, who cares? You could do it too....

No arguments here...

 

[Vendetta]

45 is pretty prevalent around here but 9mm is fairly scarce. It never occurred to me to buy the 45 and flip it to buy inflated 9mm. I have walked out of many stores emptyhanded sadly looking at the 45 bulk packs wishing I had a 1911. I will not be doing this although I believe in the free enterprise system. It occurs to me that I only believe in it to the point where I feel it would be hurting something that I love. The fear and panic buying will hurt all of us in the long run in one way or another whether you are making money now or not. I will simply continue haunting walmart or my days off hoping I get lucky and buying what I can at NORMAL prices until this **** blows over... And it will blow over.

 

[gregkl]

45 is pretty prevalent around here but 9mm is fairly scarce. It never occurred to me to buy the 45 and flip it to buy inflated 9mm. I have walked out of many stores emptyhanded sadly looking at the 45 bulk packs wishing I had a 1911. I will not be doing this although I believe in the free enterprise system. It occurs to me that I only believe in it to the point where I feel it would be hurting something that I love. The fear and panic buying will hurt all of us in the long run in one way or another whether you are making money now or not. I will simply continue haunting walmart or my days off hoping I get lucky and buying what I can at NORMAL prices until this **** blows over... And it will blow over.

Plus, keep in mind that .45 is very high right now. Pre-panic I was buying .45 for $17/50 all day long.

 

[Vendetta]

That is true at most of the lgs. However I was in Dicks less than a week ago and they had about a dozen 250 round bulk packs of 380 and 45 with a nice neat empty space between them for 9mm. I believe the 45 boxes were right around 90ish dollars which is not too far off 17/50.

 

[mikedippert]

That is true at most of the lgs. However I was in Dicks less than a week ago and they had about a dozen 250 round bulk packs of 380 and 45 with a nice neat empty space between them for 9mm. I believe the 45 boxes were right around 90ish dollars which is not too far off 17/50.

One of my LGS had what looked like a dozen or more of...

...for $45. Little higher than I would like, but I bought one box for the wife's new 1911. The 50ct of RWS I bought with the gun only lasted 2 weeks.

 

[Vendetta]

Ouch. Im ready for this nonsense to be over. I got lucky and found 3 boxes of 9 at walmart for 24 each.

 

[Broom_jm]

I've got about 350 pieces of 308 brass to work on today, but after that I believe I'll load up some more 9mm...only got about 600 rounds left and I just got 250 bullets in, so I might as well get 'em ready to shoot this summer.