news polls, believe or not

[Smokepole]

I've been phone-polled before. Most times the questions are worded in a way that they elicit the response the pollster is looking for.

I've been polled 3 or 4 times in the last 11 years. And they do word them in some VERY specific ways. I challenged the wording of 3 or 4 questions on one occasion and got some VERY annoyed responses after the 2nd challenge.

I doubt they used mine. Probably found file 13 in a BIG hurry.

When you read the actual poll you can usually scroll down to the bottom and see what the wording and weighting methodology are. You might be surprised at what you find there. Or just what you are expecting.

 

[Smokepole]

I was polled before the 2008 election. I answered neither when they asked who I supported. I told them I would vote for a bag of leaves over either of the asshats running.

 

[Smokepole]

I get called for polls several times per week. I invariably interrupt their opening spiel to tell them my rates for taking polls. It usually goes something like this:

Annoying pollster: "Hi, I'm calling from (some poll). This is not a sales call...."
Me: "Oh, great! Let me tell you my rates. I normally charge $50/minute to take phone polls, but I'm having a 10% off special this week if you buy at least a five-minute block. It's like getting thirty seconds FREE! How will you be paying today?"
Pollster: "What?"
Me: (repeating request for payment)
Pollster: "I'm sorry, we don't pay for polls."
Me: "So, your time is worth more than mine?"
Pollster: "What?" (I get this a lot. My comments completely derail them. It's awesome.)
Me: "Well, they're paying you to administer the poll, right? I expect to be paid to take the poll. Why should your time be more valuable than my time? So, how will you be paying me for my time today? I can take most major credit cards."
Pollster: "But...you have the chance to make your opinion count!" (or some variation on the feel-good payment response)
Me: "I'm sorry, I've already stated my rates twice now."
Pollster: "Uhh....let me get my supervisor..."

The call usually ends 15 seconds later.

Ya' gotta love it ! ! ! ! !

 

[buckstopshere]

As much as critical thinking and any level of discernment has gone right out the window in an alarmingly high number of Americans these days, I often wonder if all these poll results months before an election is not just a temperature check, but an attempt to sway opinions by the results.

Case in point, I was watching Hannity the other night interview Ron Paul. His tone was not nearly as upbeat as it was with Herman Cain a few days later. Yet, Hannity is supposed to be an ultra conservative.

Anyway, my point is I wonder how many people decide not to vote for a guy like Ron Paul simply because they believe he doesn't have a shot at winning because he ranks low in the "polls" and doesnt get the respect of the "conservative" media. Or, they decide to vote for Romney because everyone else is.

Not that anyone on INGO would fall into that trap, but I do think there are a high number of voters that are easily swayed by these poll results and vote popular vs effective.

I'll vacate my soap box now.

 

[melensdad]

I was watching Hannity the other night interview Ron Paul. His tone was not nearly as upbeat as it was with Herman Cain a few days later. Yet, Hannity is supposed to be an ultra conservative.

Hannity is a Republican/Conservative but Ron Paul is a Libertarian. There are distinct differences between Libertarians and Republicans.

 

[CampingJosh]

Case in point, I was watching Hannity the other night interview Ron Paul. His tone was not nearly as upbeat as it was with Herman Cain a few days later. Yet, Hannity is supposed to be an ultra conservative.

Hannity is ultra conservative. Conservatives aren't always fans of liberty, either. At least Hannity usually isn't.

 

[buckstopshere]

Hannity is a Republican/Conservative but Ron Paul is a Libertarian. There are distinct differences between Libertarians and Republicans.

I'm aware of the differences between the two parties but Hannity is very open about the fact that he is not a republican but rather an independent conservative.

He has more in common with RPs views than any of the republican nominees. I'm basing this on his stated opinions I've heard on his show and radio broadcast.

 

[buckstopshere]

Hannity is ultra conservative. Conservatives aren't always fans of liberty, either. At least Hannity usually isn't.

qft

 

[melensdad]

Luck? Sometimes polls are very wrong, too.

Go back up the thread. There are reputable pollsters. Its been clearly stated that BEFORE you believe a poll, you research the pollster.

Your moms hand was probably more accurate than the polls

I seriously doubt that. In fact the good pollsters have been proved to be nearly infallible.

You can make a poll come out to however you want it to, thats why I dont pay any attention to news polls. They are as bias as the news channel reporting them.

Yes, but that is not a reputable poll. Again, research the pollster and his track record. Don't believe any poll, but don't dismiss any poll either. Be skeptical but do your homework. Some polls are astoundingly accurate and others are intentionally biased.

I'm aware of the differences between the two parties but Hannity is very open about the fact that he is not a republican but rather an independent conservative.

He has more in common with RPs views than any of the republican nominees. I'm basing this on his stated opinions I've heard on his show and radio broadcast.

I listen to Hannity too, he really doesn't have much good to say about Ron Paul but seems to love Rand Paul. Hannity departs from both when it comes to foreign relations, freedom of religion and a few other key issues.

 

[jayhawk]

On the subject of polls, I like RCP. They aggregate several of the major weekly polls and chart the results.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

RealClearPolitics - President Obama vs. Republican Candidates

 

[sepe]

I've been phone-polled before. Most times the questions are worded in a way that they elicit the response the pollster is looking for.

Well, it would be a waste of time, money, and energy to create a poll that gives the opposite of the data that you are seeking.

 

[dross]

Threads like this make me wonder why I bother to take the time to explain things.

A: Gravity is a myth. Birds, airplanes, helicopters and dandelion seeds float above the earth, so obviously gravity doesn't apply to them.
B: Well, actually, gravity does exist and applies to all the examples you mentioned. It's just that there are other forces at work that might make it seem to you like it's gravity that's being defied.
A: Gravity is a stupid concept.
C: Gravity is a myth. Anyone can see it doesn't apply to flying squirrels.
D: Reps to you guys. People who believe in gravity are Ron Paul haters.

It can be so discouraging.

 

[mrjarrell]

Back when we had a landline, instead of cells, we used to get poll calls every few months. If it was interesting, one of use would take part and answer their questions. These days the only ones I get invited to are Harris Polls. I'm a regular for their online polls, which are mostly product and company related. Sometimes political. I don't mind taking part and it's interesting to see the results. Polls can be manipulated, but reputable ones aren't, Like the ones melensdad posted. They are certainly useful in seeing which way the wind blows on certain matters.

 

[Lead Head]

Polls make for more news fodder and fill up useless time on the airwaves. Someone is paying for the staff, overhead, etc. to conduct and compile such polls and they expect a payoff in their favor. Also, the media outlets in this country typically use data that favors the direction of the owners (board, shareholders, etc.) political leanings. Political campaigns also hire firms to conduct polls so does anyone really think a candidate would use data that would be negative ?

So many people these days hang on every tidbit of news info related to politics (or the Hollywood cesspool) and basically can't think for themselves. ****ing drones. I can't be in the same room with people like that.

INGO members stand above the cesspool or at least we shoot into it to see big splashes of black goo jump into the air.

Now where was I ?

Oh yeah. Follow the money trail and in the case of polls, news, etc., verify before you trust. It's all a big mind **** anyway.

 

[melensdad]

Seriously people you all need to wake the heck up and start doing your own research. There are some amazingly accurate polls. There are polls that are as close to being unbiased as is possible to produce.

Still, despite AMPLE EVIDENCE, there are people here who simply spout out crap that is barely comprehensible but based on little fact.

Polls make for more news fodder and fill up useless time on the airwaves. Someone is paying for the staff, overhead, etc. to conduct and compile such polls and they expect a payoff in their favor.

Please show me evidence that Rasmussen Reports is slanting their Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. LINK => Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

Please show me evidence that either party is paying for that poll.

Please show me evidence that any media out is paying for that poll.

Please show me evidence that there is any company paying for that poll.

Please show me evidence that that poll is politically biased.

 

[88GT]

If what you say is true then how is it that, within reasonable limits, the good polls can predict not simply an election, but actual election RESULTS within a very close margin of error?

When are those polls taken? Timing is everything. I said a snapshot. If you want to know what I look like now then the picture taken last weekend is a better representation than the one at my senior prom, is it not?

 

[dross]

When are those polls taken? Timing is everything. I said a snapshot. If you want to know what I look like now then the picture taken last weekend is a better representation than the one at my senior prom, is it not?

I want to know what you look like right now, but if all you have is your senior prom picture, I'll look at that one.

 

[Kirk Freeman]

Remember the INGO Rule as to polls: polls are bs unless it is a poll with which we agree with the reported result.

We need the INGO Rules to live by:

Only take illegal drugs.

Polls are bs unless we like the result.

For health, juice frogs and do not eat anything, ever.

If you believe in gravity you hate Ron Paul and must be a bankster.

 

[ocsdor]

After seeing your icon, it made me think about the time I got sampled on a Orville Redenbacher taste test in a mall, I pick the other guys! LOL

I did the same thing when I took the Pepsi Challenge as a child; I chose Coke.

Pepsi Challenge - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Colts]

Statistics, one of my favorite subjects (and one that I generally had the highest grade in each class). Statistics are a great tool, but are too often used by those that do not even understand the simpliest of topics like the difference between alpha and beta errors.

I took numerous stat classes in the pursuit of math oriented undergraduate and multiple graduate degrees. To this day, I have a 10 volume set regarding statistical science (probably over 100 lb of text).

I clearly see both sides of this issue and I happily note the good and the bad (just like guns).

Some of my favorite statistical comments:

Statistics (properly performed) never lie, but liers use Statistics (only a few of the sources realize their data is biased). A national full color newspaper was noted in several classes on the improper use of statistics for their color charts or graphs (only showing the ends of bar charts, generating a bias in the way the data was interputed by readers that then expressed their views in polls, perhaps even well conducted ones?).

The doctor to his worried transplant heart recipient (when hearing there was a 50% chance of survival); have no fear the guy yesterday died so you should be OK.

Garbage in = garbage out (some here have noted the joy they received in harassing the harassers)

63.4% (or pick your favorite number) of data presented is made up on the spot! (I think Dilbert is the source).

Being prequalified to take the poll (asking prequestions with answers that coorelate with their targeted response) - creating intentional bias.

There is some excellant use of statistics, it is just really hard for an individual to know if they are seeing the results of it. There are very accurate predictions of voting results, but is tallying self-reported voting after the fact (upon leaving the voting booth) a prediction or just the proper use of statistics to report what just happened?

Statistics are not good or bad, but a combination of math (what is thought to be truth) and science (thoery that seems to represent the world we live in) that produces a tool (sometimes used well and sometimes not).

Guns are not good or bad, but a combination of metals and propellants (sorry plastic lovers) that produce a tool (sometimes used well and sometimes not).

In each case:

There are experts
There are novices and beginners
There are illegal acts (knowly and unknowly)
There are the clueless

Guns and statistics should not generate emotion themselves, only the acts of people using them should be judged.

But I can tell good versus bad statistics; it only depends on if I agree with the results!