Let's hear your political predictions.

[printcraft]

I think it's all going to come down to Ohio, and the margin there is awfully thin.

FYI the polls are skewed...... they all have the dem advantage +7 etc.
(even with that Romney is still right there, you interpret that as you will)
They are using 2008 voter turnout figures for the demoncrats.

obama enthusiasm now is no where near where it was in 2008.

 

[Solitaire]

obama enthusiasm now is no where near where it was in 2008.

Very true, but I see ZERO Romney enthusiasm anywhere. It will be a close race, but I think Obama will win. Mostly because Romney is such an unlikeable schmuck.

 

[jayhawk]

FYI the polls are skewed...... they all have the dem advantage +7 etc.
(even with that Romney is still right there, you interpret that as you will)
They are using 2008 voter turnout figures for the demoncrats.

obama enthusiasm now is no where near where it was in 2008.

Just trolling or are you referring to the "skew" called out by unskewedpolls.com? Want to take the over on that +7 skew?

The consensus among polls is that the race is extremely close, with maybe a slight advantage to Romney in national polls (but within MOE). What is confounding is that the national polls don't line up with the state level polls, though the discrepancy is not in the +7 range according to any "reliable" aggregation that I have seen.

Unskewed's methodology is clearly flawed in a statistical sense. In any event, we'll see what happens in a week. I have a feeling Nate Silver will be pretty damn close this year, as his prediction model proved to be extremely accurate in both 2008 and 2010. The only EC votes he missed in 2008 were Indiana's, and he projected Indiana for McCain.

Edit: I see you're probably referring to early voting numbers. While the swing is significant from 2008, early voting is not a representative cross section of "likely voters", and is not a particularly reliable indicator of what exactly is going to shake out next Tuesday.

 

[KJQ6945]

I think it's all going to come down to Ohio, and the margin there is awfully thin.

FYI the polls are skewed...... they all have the dem advantage +7 etc.
(even with that Romney is still right there, you interpret that as you will)
They are using 2008 voter turnout figures for the demoncrats.

obama enthusiasm now is no where near where it was in 2008.

^^This is why Romney will win big. When the polls over sample democrats by at least 7 pts, and they still show Romney leading by 2 pts, it adds up to Obama losing big. Republican turn out will be much larger than '08, while democrat turn out will be down. We win

 

[AJMD429]

Don't forget about the dead relatives, people's pets, sobered-up-drunks, Altzheimer's ward patients, electronic 'chads', and all the other traditionally-Democrat voters.

Obummer will win.

My little town (I live where I grew up a half-century ago) used to have a reputation of being 'too Republican' so much so that there was no point in anyone else even running. Sure, that was bad, sort of, because competition is always good, especially in the 'marketplace of ideas'.


But upon voting today, there were eight others there:

• a black couple - and though they looked like hard-working types, I know realistically that they almost certainly voted for the 'black' candidate no matter how horribly destructive his policies are.

• a loud-mouthed 'WIC-Chick' - on every handout-program she can get her hands on for her 'babies', whose father(s) are probably in jail or on 'disability' of some sort - clearly a Bobo supporter.

• two guys with 'UAW' jackets on. My age, and from their talk, already retired. Both probably own boats worth more than my house, from the way they were talking about their weekend plans. Obamabots.

• a snazzy young business-woman. One of the "Ms." types. One who I'm sure would go to great lengths to prove she's "as smart as any man," but who is so stupid as to vote for whoever has the cutest mannerisms, looks the least like her father who she probably feels 'repressed' her, or has the most sex-appeal.

• an elderly couple. Nice, Audubon-society types - reminded me of my deceased aunt and uncle, who always voted Democrat, because they "helped out the less fortunate," and because they gave a better sales pitch via the AARP.

Maybe the older couple voted Republican, but even if they did, it only just canceled out the two 'union guys'. I canceled out the WIC-Chick, so that means in the best case scenario a net three votes (from the black couple and the Ms.-chick) for Bobo. If the elderly couple has fallen prey to the scare-tactics of the Democrats, it could be a net seven votes for Bobo...

And that's not even counting all the wealthy yuppies who live in the wealthier districts surrounding our community, or the too-stupid-to-be-allowed-to-vote college-kids in the next town down the road.

Bobo will win. We really should have nominated Ron Paul; the 'conservatives' didn't like him, but they still would have voted Republican, and MANY moderates, and even some 'liberals' would have gleefully voted for a non-Obama candidate who was more respectful of the Constitution than the RINO's typically leading the Republican party.

We're screwed, and next week we can decide whether to blame "the 'conservatives'", or "the 'RINO's" or "the 'Libertarians'"...

 

[printcraft]

Just trolling?.......The consensus among polls is that the race is extremely close, with maybe a slight advantage to Romney in national polls (but within MOE). .....

Now, again, if the polls are using a 2008 model for demoncrat turnout
and polling a higher percentage of demoncrats and Romney has a slight
advantage in the national polls WHAT does that tell you?


Also, I'm always trolling.

 

[Expat]

Very true, but I see ZERO Romney enthusiasm anywhere.... Mostly because Romney is such an unlikeable schmuck.

Agreed, but there is a lot of enthusiasm to vote against Obama amongst conservatives and Republicans.

 

[Solitaire]

Agreed, but there is a lot of enthusiasm to vote against Obama amongst conservatives and Republicans.

There wasn't in 2008? C'mon....no birth certificate, Rev. Wright, alleged muslim, etc. He was the anti-Christ 4 years ago. Today, he's simply the incumbent with a bad economy.

Romney MAY win, but I'll be surprised if he does. It'll be close, but again, I see no enthusiasm for Romney whatsoever, and that doesn't bode well for a challenger in any election. If Obama loses, it will be because of one thing....the economy.

 

[AJMD429]

Lest anyone think my comment above (about the 'black couple' at the polls) was "ra-a-cist", Walter Williams pretty much sums up my thoughts on the matter:

link---> Black and White Standards - Walter E. Williams - [page]

 

[jayhawk]

Now, again, if the polls are using a 2008 model for demoncrat turnout
and polling a higher percentage of demoncrats and Romney has a slight
advantage in the national polls WHAT does that tell you?

Well, you can put it in context.

From 538 on state poll aggregation (emphasis mine):

Suppose, for example, that you take the consensus forecast in each state. (By “consensus” I just mean: the average of the different forecasts.) Then you weigh it based on what each state’s share of the overall turnout was in 2008, in order to produce an estimate of the national popular vote.

Do the math, and you’ll find that this implies that Mr. Obama leads nationally by 1.9 percentage points — by no means a safe advantage, but still a better result for him than what the national polls suggest.

What if turnout doesn’t look like it did in 2008? Instead, what if the share of the votes that each state contributed was the same as in 2004, a better Republican year?

That doesn’t help to break the discord between state and national polls, unfortunately. Mr. Obama would lead by two percentage points in the consensus forecast weighing the states by their 2004 turnout.

Or we can weigh the states by their turnout in 2010, a very good Republican year. But that doesn’t help, either: instead, Mr. Obama leads by 2.1 percentage points based on this method.

Now, you could argue that Mr. Silver is an effeminate lib who writes for the NYT and is obviously biased (and that may be true). You could also argue that he is a stats guru that cares about making accurate predictions (and that may also be true). Either way, he is talking out of his ass or the 2008 voter numbers don't actually massively skew the state polling data (unless the 2004/2010 numbers are also off). I haven't seen the same thing done for national polling numbers, but I "have a feeling" the effect would be similar.

There is still the issue of the discrepancy between the state and national polls.

Also, I'm always trolling.

 

[hoosierdoc]

Very true, but I see ZERO Romney enthusiasm anywhere. It will be a close race, but I think Obama will win. Mostly because Romney is such an unlikeable schmuck.

Yeah, republicans have a +12 or so enthusiasm gap over dems. The Romney enthusiasm is not because we like him, but because we know he can beat Obama. I'm am thrilled beyond belief to vote for Romney to get rid of Obama. I even carved a punkin.

 

[Glock21]

I predict that Dewey will win.

Heck, I'm even going to print it as a headline before the results are in.

 

[jayhawk]

Don't forget about the dead relatives, people's pets, sobered-up-drunks, Altzheimer's ward patients, electronic 'chads', and all the other traditionally-Democrat voters.

Obummer will win.

My little town (I live where I grew up a half-century ago) used to have a reputation of being 'too Republican' so much so that there was no point in anyone else even running. Sure, that was bad, sort of, because competition is always good, especially in the 'marketplace of ideas'.


But upon voting today, there were eight others there:

• a black couple - and though they looked like hard-working types, I know realistically that they almost certainly voted for the 'black' candidate no matter how horribly destructive his policies are.

• a loud-mouthed 'WIC-Chick' - on every handout-program she can get her hands on for her 'babies', whose father(s) are probably in jail or on 'disability' of some sort - clearly a Bobo supporter.

• two guys with 'UAW' jackets on. My age, and from their talk, already retired. Both probably own boats worth more than my house, from the way they were talking about their weekend plans. Obamabots.

• a snazzy young business-woman. One of the "Ms." types. One who I'm sure would go to great lengths to prove she's "as smart as any man," but who is so stupid as to vote for whoever has the cutest mannerisms, looks the least like her father who she probably feels 'repressed' her, or has the most sex-appeal.

• an elderly couple. Nice, Audubon-society types - reminded me of my deceased aunt and uncle, who always voted Democrat, because they "helped out the less fortunate," and because they gave a better sales pitch via the AARP.

Maybe the older couple voted Republican, but even if they did, it only just canceled out the two 'union guys'. I canceled out the WIC-Chick, so that means in the best case scenario a net three votes (from the black couple and the Ms.-chick) for Bobo. If the elderly couple has fallen prey to the scare-tactics of the Democrats, it could be a net seven votes for Bobo...

And that's not even counting all the wealthy yuppies who live in the wealthier districts surrounding our community, or the too-stupid-to-be-allowed-to-vote college-kids in the next town down the road.

Bobo will win. We really should have nominated Ron Paul; the 'conservatives' didn't like him, but they still would have voted Republican, and MANY moderates, and even some 'liberals' would have gleefully voted for a non-Obama candidate who was more respectful of the Constitution than the RINO's typically leading the Republican party.

We're screwed, and next week we can decide whether to blame "the 'conservatives'", or "the 'RINO's" or "the 'Libertarians'"...

I don't know if this is supposed to be a joke or what, but I can tell you with a fair amount of certainty that Indiana is going to go red (by that I mean I'd put money on it). Don't fret about our collective EC votes if you're a GOP supporter.

Or are you one of them out of state INGOers?

 

[firehawk1]

Here's my .02 worth....

President - Too close to call IMO but either Obama will BARELY squeak by or Romney will win big. Obama will not win big nor will Romney lose big.

Governor - Pence running away.

Senate - I'm afraid Donnelly is going to win since Murdock kind of stepped on his d**k with his rape comment. IMO somewhat taken out of context BTW.

There you have it, 2012 Election results by Firehawk.

 

[Justin Case]

Election results for the presidency will not be known until after Thanksgiving due to the extensive use of paper ballots in the north eastern states that as of election day still do not have electric power restored (hurricane/tropical storm Sandy). The vote count will be challenged and the Supreme Court will ultimately decide that Obama won. The court will be split and the deciding vore will be cast by Chief Justice Roberts.

 

[actaeon277]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKO28wlb3yk

 

[j706]

Romney will win. For a race to be this close for an sitting president tells me that the people see the president for what he is. And that would be a lazy incompetent hand wringer.

 

[BravoMike]

I think the race will be incredibly close no matter who wins. Here is my prediction for 2012 and this isn't how I voted.

I think Obama will win the presidency by way of electoral vote. The highest I can see Romney/Ryan getting is 257. The popular vote may go either way and is too close to call but seems to be leaning Romney.

Pence for Gov.

Mourdock vs O'Donnelly - I think this will be very close and I see it as a toss up. I think Mourdock's comment may hurt him, but don't know if that will be enough to change the minds of enough people to effect the outcome that much.

 

[ATOMonkey]

I understand Mourdock's comment.

If you believe that God really is omnipotent, then logically you have to believe that at the bare minimum God allows bad things to happen, and at the other extreme makes them happen.

Further, if you believe what the Bible says, then you know that God will use tragedy and make it work out for us in the end.

Of course, all of this assumes one has faith to begin with, and secondly that it is a Christian faith.

My question is, what good is having a God if he/she/it isn't omnipotent/omniscient/etc?

just my thoughts.

Politically answering a loaded question like that is just outright dumb. Although, I do admire the man for having the guts to give an honest answer, knowing that it wouldn't go over well.

 

[dom1104]

elections are won in electoral votes. Are you just stirring the pudding or do you have some sort of plan where he wins NC, FL, OH, CO, NV, NH, and WI?