The Trump question and DeSantis question are very different.
DeSantis is clearly not able to connect with people and get his message across effectively enough. He didn’t get what he needed last night, IMO. The idea that he can only get 14-15% doesn’t mean he would only get that in a general. Trump was ~30% in Iowa in 2016 and still carried 90+% of Republicans in the Fall. He would still be competitive in the Fall, but I think the 45Mil dumped to bash him has been somewhat effective. Looking at the counties where he did well, it would look like he could perform with the moderates in the general. But he wasn’t Trumpy enough to pull Trump folks and Haley outperformed with moderates, so his numbers are weak and his path looks pretty impossible from here.
Trump captured the vote of half the Republicans, big numbers in the rural counties, and has the easiest path forward. He still has half the party voting against a previous President and a good bit of those based on polling find him too repugnant to vote for.
Yes, he won the caucus, but Lake, Bolduc, and Mastriano also won primaries with the Trump brand. He still has a year of J6 commercials, post-election lie commercials, and trials as headwinds. His VP pick better be super appealing, super moderate, and super squeaky clean If he has any chance of moving to and winning the middle.
I still think Haley is the “best” candidate to win the General.
