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Inconvenient Truth for Gore as Arctic Ice Claims Don't Add Up
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Nice try. Now go back and read for content.
"The Earth is warming" with sufficient caveats (such as "compared to what) is non-controversial. It's also not justification for the alarmist screeds and the "we've got to do something" approach that you have taken.
What the AGW* crowd has done is taken "water is wet" and gone to this:
That the Earth is probably** warming might (and, I believe, does) merit further investigation into causes and effects with a goal of better understanding the drivers of climate. It does not, at this time, justify the alarmist position that drives political AGW. It does not justify crippling the economy of the US based on effects that are unknown (and the effect of "cutting back" is just as unknown--either way you're gambling and purely "natural" events from history and pre-history have been just as disastrous as anything the AGW crowd has claimed for "global warming").
There is a time for action and there is a time to wait and get. more. information. Regarding AGW there is too little actual science and too many unknowns to be in anything other than the latter category.
* Note my use of the term AGW throughout this thread. My criticisms are not aimed at "global warming" per se, but the claims of Anthropogenic (that's "man made") Global Warming. In another thread I posted results of a NASA study that natural systems In California completely absorbed the CO2 released by burning fossil fuels. Other studies have shown that as air masses move from West to East over the US, their CO2 level goes down. IOW, the US is actually a net sink of CO2 not a net source.
**Note that use of the word "probably" in there. That is a normal caveat used in science because real scientists don't claim to have ultimate truth, forever and ever, amen. Consider that over the last few years even AGW proponents have largely stopped talking about "global warming" and shifted to "climate change." They do this because sometime within the last 5-10 years global temperatures have, on average stopped going up and may have begun to drop ("may" because the quality of the data are such that the error bars are still large compared to the actual change). Then we get NASA reporting "8th warmest year of the last decade." Um, isn't that the same as saying the 3rd coldest? Where's the warming? Oh, that's right, they're calling it "climate change" now.
NICE TRY... but we still agree that the earth is warming. NOW we also agree that additional research should be conducted and that we should take steps to mitigate the potential issues.
YOU are offically waving your straw man at this point, though I'm not sure why.
NICE TRY... but we still agree that the earth is warming. NOW we also agree that additional research should be conducted and that we should take steps to mitigate the potential issues.
YOU are offically waving your straw man at this point, though I'm not sure why.
Um, since this is what I have been saying all along I fail to see what your "Nice try" and "Now" are supposed to indicate.
But "mitigate potential issues" is a misstatement of my position (and this kind of misstatement is why I continue to suggest you read for content--and misstating my position--along with that of many other skeptics--is the straw man you continue to put forward).
1) We don't know what, if any "issues" are likely to arise if "warming" continues.
2) We don't know how much or how long warming will continue. As I pointed out, given current trends it may well have already peaked.
3) We don't know what effect, if any, any particular changes we make will have on climate.
Attempting to "mitigate issues" is premature.
What REAL scientists say about global warming and why dburkhead is soooo wrong.
Here is some content for you. Arguments from Global Warming Skeptics and what the science really says
1"It's the sun"Solar activity has shown little to no long term trend since the 1950's. Consequently, any correlation between sun and climate ended in the 1970's when the modern global warming trend began.
2"Climate's changed before"Natural climate change in the past proves that climate is sensitive to an energy imbalance. If the planet accumulates heat, global temperatures will go up. Currently, CO2 is imposing an energy imbalance due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Past climate change actually provides evidence for our climate's sensitivity to CO2.
3"There is no consensus"That humans are causing global warming is the position of the Academies of Science from 19 countries plus many scientific organisations that study climate science. More specifically, 97% of climate scientists actively publishing climate papers endorse the consensus position.
4"It's cooling"Empirical measurements of the Earth's heat content show the planet is still accumulating heat and global warming is still happening. Surface temperatures can show short term cooling when heat is exchanged between the atmosphere and the ocean, which has a much greater heat capacity than the air.
5"Models are unreliable"While there are uncertainties with climate models, they successfully reproduce the past and have successfully predicted future climate change.
6"Temp record is unreliable"Numerous studies into the effect of urban heat island effect and microsite influences find they have negligible effect on long term trends, particularly when averaged over large regions.
7"It hasn't warmed since 1998"The planet has continued to accumulate heat since 1998 - global warming is still happening. Nevertheless, surface temperatures show much internal variability due to heat exchange between the ocean and atmosphere. 1998 was an unusually hot year due to a strong El Nino.
8"Ice age predicted in the 70s"1970's ice age predictions were predominantly media based with the majority of scientific papers predicting warming.
9"We're heading into an ice age"The radiative forcing from CO2 increases greatly outstrips the forcing from solar activity, even if solar levels were to drop to Maunder Minimum levels.
10"Antarctica is gaining ice"While the interior of East Antarctica is gaining land ice, overall Antarctica is losing land ice at an accelerating rate. Antarctic sea ice is growing despite a strongly warming Southern Ocean.
11"CO2 lags temperature"CO2 causes temperature rise AND warming causes CO2 outgassing from oceans. This feedback system is confirmed by the CO2 record. In the past, the amplifying effect of CO2 feedback enabled warming to spread across the globe and take the planet out of the ice age.
12"Al Gore got it wrong"While there are minor errors in An Inconvenient Truth, the main truths presented - evidence to show mankind is causing global warming and its various impacts is consistent with peer reviewed science.
13"Global warming is good"The negative impacts of global warming on agriculture, health, economy and environment far outweigh any positives.
14"It's freaking cold!"Since the mid 1970s, global temperatures have been warming at around 0.2°C per decade. However, weather imposes it's own dramatic ups and downs over the long term trend. We expect to see record cold temperatures even during global warming. Nevertheless over the last decade, daily record high temperatures occurred twice as often as record lows. This tendency towards hotter days is expected to increase as global warming continues into the 21st Century.
15"Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming"It is unclear whether global warming is increasing hurricane frequency but there is increasing evidence that warming increases hurricane intensity.
16"Mars is warming"Martian climate is primarily driven by dust and albedo and there is little empirical evidence that Mars is showing long term warming.
17"1934 - hottest year on record"1934 is the hottest year on record in the USA which only comprises 2% of the globe. According to NASA temperature records, the hottest year on record globally is 2005.
18"It's cosmic rays"While the link between cosmic rays and cloud cover is yet to be confirmed, more importantly, there has been no correlation between cosmic rays and global temperatures over the last 30 years of global warming.
19"It's just a natural cycle"The 1500 year cycles, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events, are localized to the northern hemisphere and accompanied with cooling in the southern hemisphere. In contrast, current global warming is occuring in both hemispheres and particularly throughout the world's oceans, indicating a significant energy imbalance.
20"Urban Heat Island effect exaggerates warming"While urban areas are undoubtedly warmer than surrounding rural areas, this has had little to no impact on warming trends.
21"Sea level rise is exaggerated"Sea levels are measured by a variety of methods that show close agreement - sediment cores, tidal gauges, satellite measurements. What they find is sea level rise has been steadily accelerating over the past century.
22"Hockey stick is broken"Since the hockey stick paper in 1998, there have been a number of proxy studies analysing a variety of different sources including corals, stalagmites, tree rings, boreholes and ice cores. They all confirm the original hockey stick conclusion: the 20th century is the warmest in the last 1000 years and that warming was most dramatic after 1920.
23"Arctic icemelt is a natural cycle"Arctic sea ice has been retreating over the past 30 years. The rate of retreat is accelerating and in fact is exceeding most models' forecasts.
24"Other planets are warming"Not all planets are warming - some are cooling. Of those that are warming, the reasons are largely known and are phenomenon unique to each planet.
25"Greenland was green"The Greenland ice sheet has existed for at least 400,000 years. There may have been regions of Greenland that were 'greener' than today but this was not a global phenomenon.
26"Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas"Water vapour is the most dominant greenhouse gas. Water vapour is also the dominant positive feedback in our climate system and amplifies any warming caused by changes in atmospheric CO2. This positive feedback is why climate is so sensitive to CO2 warming.
27"Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions"The CO2 that nature emits (from the ocean and vegetation) is balanced by natural absorptions (again by the ocean and vegetation). Therefore human emissions upset the natural balance, rising CO2 to levels not seen in at least 800,000 years. In fact, human emit 26 gigatonnes of CO2 per year while CO2 in the atmosphere is rising by only 15 gigatonnes per year - much of human CO2 emissions is being absorbed by natural sinks.
28"We're coming out of an ice age"The two driving causes of natural climate change over the past few centuries as we've emerged from the Little Ice Age were solar variations and volcanic activity. Both have showed little variation over the past half century and cannot explain recent warming.
29"Oceans are cooling"Early estimates of ocean heat from the Argo showed a cooling bias due to pressure sensor issues. Recent estimates of ocean heat that take this bias into account show continued warming of the upper ocean. This is confirmed by independent estimates of ocean heat as well as more comprehensive measurements of ocean heat down to 2000 metres deep.
30"It cooled mid-century"There are a number of forcings which affect climate (eg - stratospheric aerosols, solar variations). When all forcings are combined, they show good correlation to global temperature throughout the 20th century including the mid-century cooling period. However, for the last 35 years, the dominant forcing has been CO2.
31"It warmed before 1940 when CO2 was low"Early 20th century warming was in large part due to rising solar activity and relatively quiet volcanic activity. However, both factors have played little to no part in the warming since 1975. Solar activity has been steady since the 50's. Volcanoes have been relatively frequent and if anything, have exerted a cooling effect.
32"Mt. Kilimanjaro's ice loss is due to land use"Mount Kilimanjaro's shrinking glacier is complicated and not due to just global warming. However, this does not mean the Earth is not warming. There is ample evidence that Earth's average temperature has increased in the past 100 years and the decline of mid- and high-latitude glaciers is a major piece of evidence.
33"There's no empirical evidence that humans are causing global warming"Direct observations find that CO2 is rising sharply due to human activity. Satellite measurements find less energy is escaping to space at CO2 absorption wavelengths. Ocean and surface temperature measurements find the planet is steadily accumulating heat. There is direct empirical evidence that human CO2 emissions are causing global warming.
34"Polar bears are increasing"While there is some uncertainty on current polar bear population trends, one thing is certain. No sea ice means no seals which means no polar bears. With Arctic sea ice retreating at an accelerating rate, the polar bear is at grave risk of extinction
35"Glaciers are growing"While there are isolated cases of growing glaciers, the overwhelming trend in glaciers worldwide is retreat. In fact, the global melt rate has been accelerating since the mid-1970s.
36"Climate sensitivity is low"Climate sensitivity can be calculated empirically by comparing past temperature change to natural forcings at the time. Various periods of Earth's past have been examined in this manner and find broad agreement of a climate sensitivity of around 3°C.
37"Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming"There is growing empirical evidence that warming temperatures cause more intense hurricanes, heavier rainfalls and flooding, increased conditions for wildfires and dangerous heat waves.
38"Satellites show no warming in the troposphere"Satellite measurements match model results apart from in the tropics. There is uncertainty with the tropic data due to how various teams correct for satellite drift. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program conclude the discrepancy is most likely due to data errors.
39"The IPCC does not represent a scientific consensus"The IPCC lead authors are experts in their field. The chapters that are prepared are charged with fairly representing the full range of the up-to-date, peer-reviewed literature. The IPCC tends to be cautious in coming to conclusions. Consequently, newest research findings are consistently leading to the IPCC concluding that climate change is occurring more rapidly and intensely than indicated by the cautious findings in its previous assessments.
40"CO2 is not a pollutant"While there are ways in which CO2 is a pollutant (acidification of the ocean), it's primary impact is its greenhouse warming effect. While the greenhouse effect is a natural occurance, too much warming has severe negative impacts on agriculture, health and environment.
41"CO2 effect is weak"An enhanced greenhouse effect from CO2 has been confirmed by multiple lines of empirical evidence. Satellite measurements of infrared spectra over the past 40 years observe less energy escaping to space at the wavelengths associated with CO2. Surface measurements find more downward infrared radiation warming the planet's surface. This provides a direct, empirical causal link between CO2 and global warming.
42"There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature"Even during a period of long term warming, there are short periods of cooling due to climate variability. Short term cooling over the last few years is largely due to a strong La Nina phase in the Pacific Ocean and a prolonged solar minimum.
43"If scientists can't predict weather, how can they predict long term climate?"Weather is chaotic, making prediction difficult. However, climate takes a long term view, averaging weather out over time. This removes the chaotic element, enabling climate models to successfully predict future climate change.
44"CO2 has been higher in the past"When CO2 levels were higher in the past, solar levels were also lower. The combined effect of sun and CO2 matches well with climate.
45"Greenland is gaining ice"While the Greenland interior is in mass balance, the coastlines are losing ice. Overall Greenland is losing ice mass at an accelerating rate. From 2002 to 2009, the rate of ice mass loss doubled.
46"Neptune is warming"Neptune's orbit is 164 years so observations (1950 to present day) span less than a third of a Neptunian year. Climate modelling of Neptune suggests its brightening is a seasonal response. Eg - Neptune's southern hemisphere is heading into summer.
47"Jupiter is warming"Jupiter's climate change is due to shifts in internal turbulence fueled from an internal heat source - the planet radiates twice as much energy as it receives from the sun.
48"There's no tropospheric hot spot"Satellite measurements match model results apart from in the tropics. There is uncertainty with the tropic data due to how various teams correct for satellite drift. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program conclude the discrepancy is most likely due to data errors.
49"Pluto is warming"Pluto's climate change over the last 14 years is likely a seasonal event. Pluto experiences drastic season changes due to an elliptical orbit (that takes 250 Earth years). Any Plutonian warming cannot be caused by solar variations as the sun has showed little to no long term trend over the past 50 years and sunlight at Pluto is 900 times weaker than it is at the Earth.
50"It's Pacific Decadal Oscillation"PDO as an oscillation between positive and negative values shows no long term trend, while temperature shows a long term warming trend. When the PDO last switched to a cool phase, global temperatures were about 0.4C cooler than currently. The long term warming trend indicates the total energy in the Earth's climate system is increasing due to an energy imbalance.
51"Greenland ice sheet is stable"Satellite gravity measurements show Greenland is losing ice mass at an accelerated rate, increasing its contribution to rising sea levels.
52"It's the ocean"Oceans are warming across the globe. In fact, globally oceans are accumulating energy at a rate of 4 x 1021 Joules per year - equivalent to 127,000 nuclear plants (which have an average output of 1 gigawatt) pouring their energy directly into the world's oceans. This tells us the planet is in energy imbalance - more energy is coming in than radiating back out to space.
53"CRU emails suggest climate conspiracy"While some of the private correspondance is not commendable, an informed examination of their "suggestive" emails reveal technical discussions using techniques well known in the peer reviewed literature. Focusing on a few suggestive emails merely serves to distract from the wealth of empirical evidence for man-made global warming.
54"It's volcanoes (or lack thereof)"Volcanoes emit around 0.3 Gigatonnes of CO2 per year. This is about 1% of human CO2 emissions which is around 26.4 Gigatonnes per year.
55"The CO2 effect is saturated"If the CO2 effect was saturated, adding more CO2 should add no additional greenhouse effect. However, satellite and surface measurements observe an enhanced greenhouse effect at the wavelengths that CO2 absorb energy. This is empirical proof that the CO2 effect is not saturated.
56"Less than half of published scientists endorse global warming"Schulte's paper makes much of the fact that 48% of the papers they surveyed are neutral papers, refusing to either accept or reject anthropogenic global warming. The fact that so many studies on climate change don't bother to endorse the consensus position is significant because scientists have largely moved from what's causing global warming onto discussing details of the problem (eg - how fast, how soon, impacts, etc).
57"Animals and plants can adapt to global warming"A large number of ancient mass extinction events have been strongly linked to global climate change. Because current climate change is so rapid, the way species typically adapt (eg - migration) is, in most cases, simply not be possible. Global change is simply too pervasive and occurring too rapidly.
58"CO2 measurements are suspect"CO2 levels are measured by hundreds of stations scattered across 66 countries which all report the same rising trend.
59"It's aerosols"The global dimming trend reversed around 1990 - 15 years after the global warming trend began in the mid 1970's.
60"It's El Niño"The El Nino Southern Oscillation shows close correlation to global temperatures over the short term. However, it is unable to explain the long term warming trend over the past few decades.
61"It's land use"Correlations between warming and economic activity are most likely spurious. They don't take into account local forcing agents such as tropospheric ozone or black carbon. Correlations are likely over-estimated since grid boxes in both economic and climate data are not independent. Lastly, there is significant independent evidence for warming in the oceans, snow cover and sea ice extent changes.
62"Humans are too insignificant to affect global climate"Atmospheric CO2 levels are rising by 15 gigatonnes per year. Humans are emitting 26 gigatonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere. Humans are dramatically altering the composition of our climate.
63"It's microsite influences"A comparison between the best rating weather stations and the entire temperature record show practically identical trends. This demonstrates that microsite influence has imparted little to no warming bias in the U.S. temperature record.
64"It's methane"While methane is a more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, there is over 200 times more CO2 in the atmosphere. Hence the amount of warming methane contributes is 28% of the warming CO2 contributes.
65"It's Solar Cycle Length"Updated solar cycle data since 1991 finds the agreement between solar cycles and temperature breaks down in the mid-70's. This confirms the many other studies that find solar variations cannot be causing recent global warming.
66"The Medieval Warm Period was warmer"While the Medieval Warm Period featured unusually warm conditions in some regions, there were other regions that showed significant cold temperatures. Globally the planet was much cooler than current conditions.
67"Naomi Oreskes' study on consensus was flawed"An examination of the papers that critics claim refute the consensus are found to actually endorse the consensus or are review papers (eg - they don't offer any new research but merely review other papers). This led the original critic Benny Peisner to retract his criticism of Oreskes' study.
68"Water levels correlate with sunspots"There seems to be evidence for a link between solar activity and water levels. However, more direct comparisons between solar activity and global temperature finds that as the sun grew hotter or cooler, Earth's climate followed it with a 10 year lag - presumably due to the dampening effect of the ocean. Also found was that the correlation between solar activity and global temperatures ended around 1975, hence recent warming must have some other cause than solar variations.
69"Solar cycles cause global warming"A full reading of Tung 2008 finds a distinct 11 year solar signal in the global temperature record. However, this 11 year cycle is superimposed over the long term global warming trend. In fact, the authors go on to estimate climate sensitivity from their findings, calculate a value between 2.3 to 4.1°C. This confirms the IPCC estimate of climate sensitivity.
70"The sun is getting hotter"Various independent measurements of solar activity all confirm the sun has shown a slight cooling trend since 1978.
71"It's albedo"The long term trend from albedo is that of cooling. In recent years, satellite measurements of albedo show little to no trend.
72"It's ozone"Multiple satellite measurements and ground-based observations have determined the ozone layer has stopped declining since 1995 while temperature trends continue upwards.
73"It's satellite microwave transmissions"A generous estimate of the energy generated by satellites is around 1 million times too small to cause global warming.
74"Global temperatures dropped sharply in 2007"2007's dramatic cooling is driven by strong La Nina conditions which historically has caused similar drops in global temperature. It is also exacerbated by unusually low solar activity.
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75"Ice isn't melting"Ice mass loss is occuring at an accelerated rate in Greenland, Antarctica and globally from inland glaciers. Arctic sea ice is also falling at an accelerated rate. The exception to this ice loss is Antarctic sea ice which has been growing despite the warming Southern Ocean. This is due to local factors unique to the area.
76"CO2 is not the only driver of climate"While there are many drivers of climate, CO2 is the most dominant radiative forcing and is increasing faster than any other forcing.
77"Trenberth can't account for the lack of warming"Trenberth's views are clarified in the paper "An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth's global energy". We know the planet is continually heating due to increasing carbon dioxide but that surface temperature sometimes have short term cooling periods. This is due to internal variability and Trenberth was lamenting that our observation systems can't comprehensively track all the energy flow through the climate system.
Here is some content for you. Arguments from Global Warming Skeptics and what the science really says
1"It's the sun"Solar activity has shown little to no long term trend since the 1950's. Consequently, any correlation between sun and climate ended in the 1970's when the modern global warming trend began.
2"Climate's changed before"Natural climate change in the past proves that climate is sensitive to an energy imbalance. If the planet accumulates heat, global temperatures will go up. Currently, CO2 is imposing an energy imbalance due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Past climate change actually provides evidence for our climate's sensitivity to CO2.
3"There is no consensus"That humans are causing global warming is the position of the Academies of Science from 19 countries plus many scientific organisations that study climate science. More specifically, 97% of climate scientists actively publishing climate papers endorse the consensus position.
4"It's cooling"Empirical measurements of the Earth's heat content show the planet is still accumulating heat and global warming is still happening. Surface temperatures can show short term cooling when heat is exchanged between the atmosphere and the ocean, which has a much greater heat capacity than the air.
5"Models are unreliable"While there are uncertainties with climate models, they successfully reproduce the past and have successfully predicted future climate change.
6"Temp record is unreliable"Numerous studies into the effect of urban heat island effect and microsite influences find they have negligible effect on long term trends, particularly when averaged over large regions.
7"It hasn't warmed since 1998"The planet has continued to accumulate heat since 1998 - global warming is still happening. Nevertheless, surface temperatures show much internal variability due to heat exchange between the ocean and atmosphere. 1998 was an unusually hot year due to a strong El Nino.
8"Ice age predicted in the 70s"1970's ice age predictions were predominantly media based with the majority of scientific papers predicting warming.
9"We're heading into an ice age"The radiative forcing from CO2 increases greatly outstrips the forcing from solar activity, even if solar levels were to drop to Maunder Minimum levels.
10"Antarctica is gaining ice"While the interior of East Antarctica is gaining land ice, overall Antarctica is losing land ice at an accelerating rate. Antarctic sea ice is growing despite a strongly warming Southern Ocean.
11"CO2 lags temperature"CO2 causes temperature rise AND warming causes CO2 outgassing from oceans. This feedback system is confirmed by the CO2 record. In the past, the amplifying effect of CO2 feedback enabled warming to spread across the globe and take the planet out of the ice age.
12"Al Gore got it wrong"While there are minor errors in An Inconvenient Truth, the main truths presented - evidence to show mankind is causing global warming and its various impacts is consistent with peer reviewed science.
13"Global warming is good"The negative impacts of global warming on agriculture, health, economy and environment far outweigh any positives.
14"It's freaking cold!"Since the mid 1970s, global temperatures have been warming at around 0.2°C per decade. However, weather imposes it's own dramatic ups and downs over the long term trend. We expect to see record cold temperatures even during global warming. Nevertheless over the last decade, daily record high temperatures occurred twice as often as record lows. This tendency towards hotter days is expected to increase as global warming continues into the 21st Century.
15"Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming"It is unclear whether global warming is increasing hurricane frequency but there is increasing evidence that warming increases hurricane intensity.
16"Mars is warming"Martian climate is primarily driven by dust and albedo and there is little empirical evidence that Mars is showing long term warming.
17"1934 - hottest year on record"1934 is the hottest year on record in the USA which only comprises 2% of the globe. According to NASA temperature records, the hottest year on record globally is 2005.
18"It's cosmic rays"While the link between cosmic rays and cloud cover is yet to be confirmed, more importantly, there has been no correlation between cosmic rays and global temperatures over the last 30 years of global warming.
19"It's just a natural cycle"The 1500 year cycles, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events, are localized to the northern hemisphere and accompanied with cooling in the southern hemisphere. In contrast, current global warming is occuring in both hemispheres and particularly throughout the world's oceans, indicating a significant energy imbalance.
20"Urban Heat Island effect exaggerates warming"While urban areas are undoubtedly warmer than surrounding rural areas, this has had little to no impact on warming trends.
21"Sea level rise is exaggerated"Sea levels are measured by a variety of methods that show close agreement - sediment cores, tidal gauges, satellite measurements. What they find is sea level rise has been steadily accelerating over the past century.
22"Hockey stick is broken"Since the hockey stick paper in 1998, there have been a number of proxy studies analysing a variety of different sources including corals, stalagmites, tree rings, boreholes and ice cores. They all confirm the original hockey stick conclusion: the 20th century is the warmest in the last 1000 years and that warming was most dramatic after 1920.
23"Arctic icemelt is a natural cycle"Arctic sea ice has been retreating over the past 30 years. The rate of retreat is accelerating and in fact is exceeding most models' forecasts.
24"Other planets are warming"Not all planets are warming - some are cooling. Of those that are warming, the reasons are largely known and are phenomenon unique to each planet.
25"Greenland was green"The Greenland ice sheet has existed for at least 400,000 years. There may have been regions of Greenland that were 'greener' than today but this was not a global phenomenon.
26"Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas"Water vapour is the most dominant greenhouse gas. Water vapour is also the dominant positive feedback in our climate system and amplifies any warming caused by changes in atmospheric CO2. This positive feedback is why climate is so sensitive to CO2 warming.
27"Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions"The CO2 that nature emits (from the ocean and vegetation) is balanced by natural absorptions (again by the ocean and vegetation). Therefore human emissions upset the natural balance, rising CO2 to levels not seen in at least 800,000 years. In fact, human emit 26 gigatonnes of CO2 per year while CO2 in the atmosphere is rising by only 15 gigatonnes per year - much of human CO2 emissions is being absorbed by natural sinks.
28"We're coming out of an ice age"The two driving causes of natural climate change over the past few centuries as we've emerged from the Little Ice Age were solar variations and volcanic activity. Both have showed little variation over the past half century and cannot explain recent warming.
29"Oceans are cooling"Early estimates of ocean heat from the Argo showed a cooling bias due to pressure sensor issues. Recent estimates of ocean heat that take this bias into account show continued warming of the upper ocean. This is confirmed by independent estimates of ocean heat as well as more comprehensive measurements of ocean heat down to 2000 metres deep.
30"It cooled mid-century"There are a number of forcings which affect climate (eg - stratospheric aerosols, solar variations). When all forcings are combined, they show good correlation to global temperature throughout the 20th century including the mid-century cooling period. However, for the last 35 years, the dominant forcing has been CO2.
31"It warmed before 1940 when CO2 was low"Early 20th century warming was in large part due to rising solar activity and relatively quiet volcanic activity. However, both factors have played little to no part in the warming since 1975. Solar activity has been steady since the 50's. Volcanoes have been relatively frequent and if anything, have exerted a cooling effect.
32"Mt. Kilimanjaro's ice loss is due to land use"Mount Kilimanjaro's shrinking glacier is complicated and not due to just global warming. However, this does not mean the Earth is not warming. There is ample evidence that Earth's average temperature has increased in the past 100 years and the decline of mid- and high-latitude glaciers is a major piece of evidence.
33"There's no empirical evidence that humans are causing global warming"Direct observations find that CO2 is rising sharply due to human activity. Satellite measurements find less energy is escaping to space at CO2 absorption wavelengths. Ocean and surface temperature measurements find the planet is steadily accumulating heat. There is direct empirical evidence that human CO2 emissions are causing global warming.
34"Polar bears are increasing"While there is some uncertainty on current polar bear population trends, one thing is certain. No sea ice means no seals which means no polar bears. With Arctic sea ice retreating at an accelerating rate, the polar bear is at grave risk of extinction
35"Glaciers are growing"While there are isolated cases of growing glaciers, the overwhelming trend in glaciers worldwide is retreat. In fact, the global melt rate has been accelerating since the mid-1970s.
36"Climate sensitivity is low"Climate sensitivity can be calculated empirically by comparing past temperature change to natural forcings at the time. Various periods of Earth's past have been examined in this manner and find broad agreement of a climate sensitivity of around 3°C.
37"Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming"There is growing empirical evidence that warming temperatures cause more intense hurricanes, heavier rainfalls and flooding, increased conditions for wildfires and dangerous heat waves.
38"Satellites show no warming in the troposphere"Satellite measurements match model results apart from in the tropics. There is uncertainty with the tropic data due to how various teams correct for satellite drift. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program conclude the discrepancy is most likely due to data errors.
39"The IPCC does not represent a scientific consensus"The IPCC lead authors are experts in their field. The chapters that are prepared are charged with fairly representing the full range of the up-to-date, peer-reviewed literature. The IPCC tends to be cautious in coming to conclusions. Consequently, newest research findings are consistently leading to the IPCC concluding that climate change is occurring more rapidly and intensely than indicated by the cautious findings in its previous assessments.
40"CO2 is not a pollutant"While there are ways in which CO2 is a pollutant (acidification of the ocean), it's primary impact is its greenhouse warming effect. While the greenhouse effect is a natural occurance, too much warming has severe negative impacts on agriculture, health and environment.
41"CO2 effect is weak"An enhanced greenhouse effect from CO2 has been confirmed by multiple lines of empirical evidence. Satellite measurements of infrared spectra over the past 40 years observe less energy escaping to space at the wavelengths associated with CO2. Surface measurements find more downward infrared radiation warming the planet's surface. This provides a direct, empirical causal link between CO2 and global warming.
42"There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature"Even during a period of long term warming, there are short periods of cooling due to climate variability. Short term cooling over the last few years is largely due to a strong La Nina phase in the Pacific Ocean and a prolonged solar minimum.
43"If scientists can't predict weather, how can they predict long term climate?"Weather is chaotic, making prediction difficult. However, climate takes a long term view, averaging weather out over time. This removes the chaotic element, enabling climate models to successfully predict future climate change.
44"CO2 has been higher in the past"When CO2 levels were higher in the past, solar levels were also lower. The combined effect of sun and CO2 matches well with climate.
45"Greenland is gaining ice"While the Greenland interior is in mass balance, the coastlines are losing ice. Overall Greenland is losing ice mass at an accelerating rate. From 2002 to 2009, the rate of ice mass loss doubled.
46"Neptune is warming"Neptune's orbit is 164 years so observations (1950 to present day) span less than a third of a Neptunian year. Climate modelling of Neptune suggests its brightening is a seasonal response. Eg - Neptune's southern hemisphere is heading into summer.
47"Jupiter is warming"Jupiter's climate change is due to shifts in internal turbulence fueled from an internal heat source - the planet radiates twice as much energy as it receives from the sun.
48"There's no tropospheric hot spot"Satellite measurements match model results apart from in the tropics. There is uncertainty with the tropic data due to how various teams correct for satellite drift. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program conclude the discrepancy is most likely due to data errors.
49"Pluto is warming"Pluto's climate change over the last 14 years is likely a seasonal event. Pluto experiences drastic season changes due to an elliptical orbit (that takes 250 Earth years). Any Plutonian warming cannot be caused by solar variations as the sun has showed little to no long term trend over the past 50 years and sunlight at Pluto is 900 times weaker than it is at the Earth.
50"It's Pacific Decadal Oscillation"PDO as an oscillation between positive and negative values shows no long term trend, while temperature shows a long term warming trend. When the PDO last switched to a cool phase, global temperatures were about 0.4C cooler than currently. The long term warming trend indicates the total energy in the Earth's climate system is increasing due to an energy imbalance.
51"Greenland ice sheet is stable"Satellite gravity measurements show Greenland is losing ice mass at an accelerated rate, increasing its contribution to rising sea levels.
52"It's the ocean"Oceans are warming across the globe. In fact, globally oceans are accumulating energy at a rate of 4 x 1021 Joules per year - equivalent to 127,000 nuclear plants (which have an average output of 1 gigawatt) pouring their energy directly into the world's oceans. This tells us the planet is in energy imbalance - more energy is coming in than radiating back out to space.
53"CRU emails suggest climate conspiracy"While some of the private correspondance is not commendable, an informed examination of their "suggestive" emails reveal technical discussions using techniques well known in the peer reviewed literature. Focusing on a few suggestive emails merely serves to distract from the wealth of empirical evidence for man-made global warming.
54"It's volcanoes (or lack thereof)"Volcanoes emit around 0.3 Gigatonnes of CO2 per year. This is about 1% of human CO2 emissions which is around 26.4 Gigatonnes per year.
55"The CO2 effect is saturated"If the CO2 effect was saturated, adding more CO2 should add no additional greenhouse effect. However, satellite and surface measurements observe an enhanced greenhouse effect at the wavelengths that CO2 absorb energy. This is empirical proof that the CO2 effect is not saturated.
56"Less than half of published scientists endorse global warming"Schulte's paper makes much of the fact that 48% of the papers they surveyed are neutral papers, refusing to either accept or reject anthropogenic global warming. The fact that so many studies on climate change don't bother to endorse the consensus position is significant because scientists have largely moved from what's causing global warming onto discussing details of the problem (eg - how fast, how soon, impacts, etc).
57"Animals and plants can adapt to global warming"A large number of ancient mass extinction events have been strongly linked to global climate change. Because current climate change is so rapid, the way species typically adapt (eg - migration) is, in most cases, simply not be possible. Global change is simply too pervasive and occurring too rapidly.
58"CO2 measurements are suspect"CO2 levels are measured by hundreds of stations scattered across 66 countries which all report the same rising trend.
59"It's aerosols"The global dimming trend reversed around 1990 - 15 years after the global warming trend began in the mid 1970's.
60"It's El Niño"The El Nino Southern Oscillation shows close correlation to global temperatures over the short term. However, it is unable to explain the long term warming trend over the past few decades.
61"It's land use"Correlations between warming and economic activity are most likely spurious. They don't take into account local forcing agents such as tropospheric ozone or black carbon. Correlations are likely over-estimated since grid boxes in both economic and climate data are not independent. Lastly, there is significant independent evidence for warming in the oceans, snow cover and sea ice extent changes.
62"Humans are too insignificant to affect global climate"Atmospheric CO2 levels are rising by 15 gigatonnes per year. Humans are emitting 26 gigatonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere. Humans are dramatically altering the composition of our climate.
63"It's microsite influences"A comparison between the best rating weather stations and the entire temperature record show practically identical trends. This demonstrates that microsite influence has imparted little to no warming bias in the U.S. temperature record.
64"It's methane"While methane is a more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, there is over 200 times more CO2 in the atmosphere. Hence the amount of warming methane contributes is 28% of the warming CO2 contributes.
65"It's Solar Cycle Length"Updated solar cycle data since 1991 finds the agreement between solar cycles and temperature breaks down in the mid-70's. This confirms the many other studies that find solar variations cannot be causing recent global warming.
66"The Medieval Warm Period was warmer"While the Medieval Warm Period featured unusually warm conditions in some regions, there were other regions that showed significant cold temperatures. Globally the planet was much cooler than current conditions.
67"Naomi Oreskes' study on consensus was flawed"An examination of the papers that critics claim refute the consensus are found to actually endorse the consensus or are review papers (eg - they don't offer any new research but merely review other papers). This led the original critic Benny Peisner to retract his criticism of Oreskes' study.
68"Water levels correlate with sunspots"There seems to be evidence for a link between solar activity and water levels. However, more direct comparisons between solar activity and global temperature finds that as the sun grew hotter or cooler, Earth's climate followed it with a 10 year lag - presumably due to the dampening effect of the ocean. Also found was that the correlation between solar activity and global temperatures ended around 1975, hence recent warming must have some other cause than solar variations.
69"Solar cycles cause global warming"A full reading of Tung 2008 finds a distinct 11 year solar signal in the global temperature record. However, this 11 year cycle is superimposed over the long term global warming trend. In fact, the authors go on to estimate climate sensitivity from their findings, calculate a value between 2.3 to 4.1°C. This confirms the IPCC estimate of climate sensitivity.
70"The sun is getting hotter"Various independent measurements of solar activity all confirm the sun has shown a slight cooling trend since 1978.
71"It's albedo"The long term trend from albedo is that of cooling. In recent years, satellite measurements of albedo show little to no trend.
72"It's ozone"Multiple satellite measurements and ground-based observations have determined the ozone layer has stopped declining since 1995 while temperature trends continue upwards.
73"It's satellite microwave transmissions"A generous estimate of the energy generated by satellites is around 1 million times too small to cause global warming.
74"Global temperatures dropped sharply in 2007"2007's dramatic cooling is driven by strong La Nina conditions which historically has caused similar drops in global temperature. It is also exacerbated by unusually low solar activity.
7
75"Ice isn't melting"Ice mass loss is occuring at an accelerated rate in Greenland, Antarctica and globally from inland glaciers. Arctic sea ice is also falling at an accelerated rate. The exception to this ice loss is Antarctic sea ice which has been growing despite the warming Southern Ocean. This is due to local factors unique to the area.
76"CO2 is not the only driver of climate"While there are many drivers of climate, CO2 is the most dominant radiative forcing and is increasing faster than any other forcing.
77"Trenberth can't account for the lack of warming"Trenberth's views are clarified in the paper "An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth's global energy". We know the planet is continually heating due to increasing carbon dioxide but that surface temperature sometimes have short term cooling periods. This is due to internal variability and Trenberth was lamenting that our observation systems can't comprehensively track all the energy flow through the climate system.
Your title "What the real scientists say" is the fallacy of begging the question. How does one define "real scientists"? Well, obviously they are the ones who agree with orthodox dogma.
Note that your source is a partisan proponant of AGW. If the AGW proponents are going to dismiss skepticism based on claimed bias of skeptics, then the reverse is equally valid. But lets set that aside for sake of discussion. After all, I'm the one who suggests looking at the actual data rather than who or what makes the claim.
The idea of talking about "long term trend" regarding the sun and climate in anything less than century terms is ridiculous. Year to year variation is too great for those terms to be meaningful.
Try this one on for size:
Note that the overall slope between 1910 and 1945ish is of the same order as that of the late 1970s to 2000. Interesting also that they stop at 2000. When you look at more recent years you see leveling off or even dropping.
Also, "little or no" is not the same as "no." As I have pointed out uptopic, there are second order effects that are not well understood at all. For example, the sun, via its magnetic field and its effect on the Earth's magnetic field affects cosmic rays. Cosmic rays affect cloud formation. Cloud formation affects both the amount of heat that reaches the Earth's surface (changes in albedo) and the amount of heat radiated into space (which dominates is very dependent on conditions. A very small change--in the "little or no" range--in solar activity can have significant effects on climate. Here's one recent source.
Basically this whole "point" is simply asserting the conclusion. The Earth's temperature goes up and down without humans doing anything. And since past climate changes show changes in CO2 follow changes in temperature, if anything it shows that CO2 is sensitive to climate rather than the reverse.
Note that wording "actively publishing climate papers." Actively publishing where? Why in certain "recognized" climate papers. And what does it take to get published in those journals? Passing the "peer review" jury. And who is on the peer review jury? Why AGW proponents.
Groupthink at its finest.
"Empirical measurements" that include discarding 75% of the measurements from a country that forms 1/6 of the world's land area.
Name three.
"Numerous studies." What studies? What were the controls? What are the error bars? Let's see the data.
Oh, wait a minute. People in the climate field seem to think that it's "normal" to throw out the data.
Um:
Notice that even if you exclude 1998 as an exception the graph has leveled off since about 2002. This is not what the AGW alarmists have been predicted.
Name three.
And I stopped here. If you want to claim some kind of "victory" because your ability to cut and paste exceeds my patience for point by point refutation, well, be my guest. I'll leave it to the peanut gallery to judge the reliability of your source based on the first 8 points.
Note that your source is a partisan proponant of AGW. If the AGW proponents are going to dismiss skepticism based on claimed bias of skeptics, then the reverse is equally valid. But lets set that aside for sake of discussion. After all, I'm the one who suggests looking at the actual data rather than who or what makes the claim.
The idea of talking about "long term trend" regarding the sun and climate in anything less than century terms is ridiculous. Year to year variation is too great for those terms to be meaningful.
Try this one on for size:
Note that the overall slope between 1910 and 1945ish is of the same order as that of the late 1970s to 2000. Interesting also that they stop at 2000. When you look at more recent years you see leveling off or even dropping.
Also, "little or no" is not the same as "no." As I have pointed out uptopic, there are second order effects that are not well understood at all. For example, the sun, via its magnetic field and its effect on the Earth's magnetic field affects cosmic rays. Cosmic rays affect cloud formation. Cloud formation affects both the amount of heat that reaches the Earth's surface (changes in albedo) and the amount of heat radiated into space (which dominates is very dependent on conditions. A very small change--in the "little or no" range--in solar activity can have significant effects on climate. Here's one recent source.
Basically this whole "point" is simply asserting the conclusion. The Earth's temperature goes up and down without humans doing anything. And since past climate changes show changes in CO2 follow changes in temperature, if anything it shows that CO2 is sensitive to climate rather than the reverse.
Note that wording "actively publishing climate papers." Actively publishing where? Why in certain "recognized" climate papers. And what does it take to get published in those journals? Passing the "peer review" jury. And who is on the peer review jury? Why AGW proponents.
Groupthink at its finest.
"Empirical measurements" that include discarding 75% of the measurements from a country that forms 1/6 of the world's land area.
Name three.
"Numerous studies." What studies? What were the controls? What are the error bars? Let's see the data.
Oh, wait a minute. People in the climate field seem to think that it's "normal" to throw out the data.
Um:
Notice that even if you exclude 1998 as an exception the graph has leveled off since about 2002. This is not what the AGW alarmists have been predicted.
Name three.
And I stopped here. If you want to claim some kind of "victory" because your ability to cut and paste exceeds my patience for point by point refutation, well, be my guest. I'll leave it to the peanut gallery to judge the reliability of your source based on the first 8 points.
What about the other 60+ arguments?
Also, do any of your arguments actually hold water in the scientific community, or are the just unclear enough to fool the masses?
VICTORY!!!
anyhow, you are invited to my ocean front beach party in Bloomington next November! I'll send the details via PM.
You aren't able to tell? And you claim to be a scientist?
Out of the first 8 not one is supported by any data presented either by you or by the source from which you cribbed your list. Not one. An among that 8 is one outright fabrication (that the Earth is "continuing to accumulate heat"--fancy speak for "get hotter" since 1998. The chart I posted, taken from a source that generally marches along the AGW party line, shows that that just ain't so). Declare "victory" if you want, but I'll let the peanut gallery draw their own conclusions about the reliability of the source on which you are basing that conclusion.
Note that I didn't go through the list and "cherry pick" items that I could refute. I took the first eight, in order, as a representative sample of the "answers" to skepticism about AGW. I also didn't bother going into their tendency to oversimply skeptical positions and then pooh-pooh the oversimplified position (a form of straw man).
If that's the best you've got then the AGW case is very weak indeed.
500 Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skepticism of "Man-Made" Global Warming
Popular Technology.net: 500 Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skepticism of "Man-Made" Global Warming
The funny thing is, I have heard man-made GW proponents saying that there are no peer-reviewed scientific papers against man made GW....hmm, can you say SPIN?
Popular Technology.net: 500 Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skepticism of "Man-Made" Global Warming
The funny thing is, I have heard man-made GW proponents saying that there are no peer-reviewed scientific papers against man made GW....hmm, can you say SPIN?
Wait. I could tell.. i could tell very quickly that you arguements DID NOT HOLD WATER!
Wait... Yes, each of them is clearly supported. Take a breath and come back to reality.
Sure, I may not gain much ground with these conservative nut cases, but then again, do I really expect to? No offense intended to all of you conservative tin-foil heads!
Your posts don't make any sense. Just because YOU SAY they are the teaching of a master scientist doesn't make it so. I mean, seriously... come on dude.
If my argument is weak, then the entire AGW case is weak? What fallacy is that oh great and knowledgeable one?
Please note: 45 of the "authors" did not know they were being named as authors and have come out stating that they completely disagree with the paper. I wonder how many more are unaware of their inclusion.
By dburkhead's logic, this alone invalidates any disagreement with global warming that has been or will ever be presented in the future. VICTORY x2!!!
Please elaborate...
They did not know they wrote a paper? huh? Or they didn't agree with the fact that the paper they wrote expressed skepticism of GW?
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