how fast will it fall?

[Marc]

Have you seen the book of Eli? if not watch it and thats how it will be minus the nuclear war that sent them to that stage in life but none the less we would have tons of crime, and people living in colonies. my thought

 

[tyler34]

I'm thinking more like the patriots book.

 

[cosermann]

If I had to point to a real example (a recent example), not fiction, of what could happen, I'd point to something like this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis_(1999%E2%80%932002)
SURVIVING IN ARGENTINA: Argentina
SURVIVING IN ARGENTINA: Economy
SURVIVING IN ARGENTINA: Argentina Economy
SURVIVING IN ARGENTINA: Thoughts on Urban Survival (2005)

 

[IrishSon of Liberty]

Worst case scenario, I'd say it will start to show itself in about nine months. The Fed and DC will continue to prop up the false numbers in hopes of keeping the wool pulled over the eyes of the Americans until after the election.

* Case in point - Obama's budget that was announced on Monday includes revenue from the Cap and Tax (Trade) bill. This proposed bill hasn't even been formally submitted yet, let alone voted on and passed. Likewise, one of the previous Stimulus bills had a section that allotted, I believe, $600 million toward the initial start-up for socialized healthcare. How can they budget money to both collect and spend on bills that don't even exist? It's all false numbers on false books that are based on false pretenses. Thankfully, the resolve of the American people is NOT false.

Provided the Iranian/Middle Eastern terrorist threat that was announced this week can be curbed by the residing dictator and his staff; then I believe the system will start to weaken/crumble at a very rapid rate as we enter next winter. I'm not sure how, but heating costs of next winter, I believe, will be a bargaining chip from the federal government.

 

[cosermann]

And, the Bush tax cuts will expire this year, if not renewed which will put additional pressure on the economy.

Economist Art Laffer weighs in on Missouri, President Obama, and the "train going off the tracks" in 2011 - Missourinet
Laffer curve - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[ArmedProgrammer]

If I had to point to a real example (a recent example), not fiction, of what could happen, I'd point to something like this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis_(1999%E2%80%932002)
SURVIVING IN ARGENTINA: Argentina
SURVIVING IN ARGENTINA: Economy
SURVIVING IN ARGENTINA: Argentina Economy
SURVIVING IN ARGENTINA: Thoughts on Urban Survival (2005)

I read some of this, and FerFal's commentary is AMAZING.... reps headed your way!

 

[Leadeye]

I'm moving to the Southern Indiana woods.

 

[printcraft]

I'm moving to the Southern Indiana woods.

Save me a spot, my stomach hurts after reading this thread.

 

[Leadeye]

Have a spare bedroom at the new house.

 

[cosermann]

People don't have to quit buying US debt, the biggest holders could just decide to sell . . .

See this in today's news:

China PLA officers urge economic punch against U.S. | Reuters

And the largest foreign holders of US debt are (China #1, Russia #8):

http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

 

[CountryBoy19]

People don't have to quit buying US debt, the biggest holders could just decide to sell . . .

See this in today's news:

China PLA officers urge economic punch against U.S. | Reuters

And the largest foreign holders of US debt are (China #1, Russia #8):

http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

+1 I sold all of my mature savings bonds last year because of the uncertainty in their ability to repay me in the future, and for tax reasons. I only have a few left, and they'll be sold immediately upon maturing. I'm willing to take a small risk in letting them mature first.

 

[cosermann]

Relevant update from the news today:

Concerns grow over China's sale of US bonds - Telegraph

 

[E5RANGER375]

If its not over debt and the ecconomy it will be over something else. but i deffinately forsee a TOTAL restructure and possibly an abolishment of our current government by the people as outlined in the constitution. will it lead to all out revolution ??? i dont know, possibly, but however it come to pass i do believe it will happen within the next 20 years and thats pushing it. It wont be pretty, a lot of people will probly die of starvation and crime. but if the result is better than what we have now then maybe it will be for the best. The U.S. government is on a coarse to disaster, the will of the American people is STRONG and we will survive NO MATTER WHAT our country is called or who runs it. WE THE PEOPLE are AMERICA, not any government or 2 bit politician. Politicians are no longer "THE PEOPLE" when they enter office, they are "THE MAN" and we have too many that put THE MAN first and not THE PEOPLE!! WE MUST VOTE THOSE POLITICIANS OUT OF OFFICE!! i dont care if they have been there 40 years, its not working and 40plus years of badly run government has got us to where we are now. sorry for the rant

 

[Marc]

If no one is purchasing the US debt, what will we see?

overthrow the government an revolution

 

[smokingman]

If no one is purchasing the US debt, what will we see?

If no one buys the debt then the government can not fund day to day operations.If no one else buys the debt the federal reserve will(as they did with 30 year bonds last week,the auction would have "failed" if they had not).
The first time the fed does not buy a failed auction the dollar would collapse in around 24 hours or less and the government would have to borrow money from the fed (fed prints more money)meaning the dollar would not be worth as much as TP.

 

[Srtsi4wd]

Wall Street's Bailout Hustle : Rolling Stone


"Finally, when there's nothing left, when you can't borrow another buck ... you bust the joint out. You light a match."
-Henry Hill, Goodfellas

Read the article above. Be prepared to get PO'ed.

 

[djl02]

Yeah, it's a good question. With our coming due short term debt being over 3 times what our entire reserve is, the dollar losing value (due to just printing more when needed among other things...), it's a recipe for absolute certain economic disaster. Right now it's not a matter of "if", but rather a matter of "how". There will IMO likely be a sort of "buyout" at rock bottom price of our entire nation (already happening gradually). By "our nation" I mean specifically the corporate entity, tax rights....a massive bankruptcy/liquidation sale. This I suspect will be how they form the NAU (North American Union) for us, it already exists and should be brought online soon, before the UN firearm treaty is drafted. This is also when the "Amero" is brought online as an answer to the problem. I am nearly certain, and almost hopeful that a civil uprising will take place at some point. I think before that happens though, there will be a period of suffering and hardship involving many different things occurring like extended family living together, crime through the roof, people hopefully going back to their roots and coming together, doing without, growing food, lots of bartering.....


I don't think there is any peaceful political way to solve this problem. I think it has already gone far beyond the "point of no return". I'm not sure if resistance is the answer either. Don't misunderstand me, I will resist, I am a free man and will die a free man. My point is that at some point it simply IS going to happen. Just like the EU and the Euro, the few holdout nations/areas just suffered severe trade and economic sanctions that forced them to give in. The holdouts will wind up like Cuba in a sense. A lot can be learned from them, they have amazing resolve and their patriots, while ?wrong? are among histories greatest defiant figures.


All of this is EXACTLY why I am a "prepper", why I strive toward complete self reliance/sufficiency. I feel the walls closing in and fear the time has grown short......

Oh, how fast? 3 years tops.

I dont doubt your anology (How ever you spell it) I hear the same story daily. Just curious how just changing to Amero would solve or change any thing. They gonna wipe out all debt, and start over? I'm not argueing just like to hear what you think will take place. I paid of the house a couple years ago, and figured they'll wipe out all debt and start over, Thats just the way my luck goes.LOL

 

[PeaShooter]

for an eyewitness account of an economic collapse (in argentina) read surviving the economic collapse by fernando "ferfal" aguirre. for a fictional guess at the collapse, read "The day the dollar died" a blovel at Shenandoahhttp://www.johngaultfla.com. There are 24 chapters in the blovel, if you scroll down, on the right hand side is a set of links to the chapters.

I think that it will be more like the day the dollar died, the government won't give up its power willingly and will stab us all in the back to keep it (and probably try to increase it)

 

[ddenny5]

Some of the threads talk about uprising that will lead to hardship. I tend to believe that we have another threat. That is invasion from a foreign power. If the dollar crashes and we have civil unrest would that not be an opportunity for our enemies like Russia or China to move in? there are countries if the situation is right would consider invading.

 

[Lex Concord]

Some of the threads talk about uprising that will lead to hardship. I tend to believe that we have another threat. That is invasion from a foreign power. If the dollar crashes and we have civil unrest would that not be an opportunity for our enemies like Russia or China to move in? there are countries if the situation is right would consider invading.

No, I'm sure the bear and dragon are cowering at the thought of rousing the ire of the other NATO countries....

Seriously...there has been talk for years of the Chinese dumping our treasuries as part of a non-military strike. Recently, the PLA leadership has called for exactly that in response to the meeting with the Dalai Lama and, more importantly, over the sale of arms to Taiwan.

These actions, combined with reports over the last 6 - 10 months that the Chinese have been adding to their sovereign reserves of precious metal and urging their citizens to do the same (esp. GOLD -), I would tend to agree with the analysis in the article that this is, indeed a warning shot, especially since the Chinese have not, historically, been keen on their serfs holding PMs.

What I find laughable in the linked article is the comment that the Chinese have no option but to buy U.S. treasuries by the boatload because the Euro is a tarnished currency...as if the dollar stands on solid ground.

Anyway, if they decide to go full-bore on this, we will find out very quickly why this has often been referred to as the nuclear option.

One thing to remember is, even though the Chinese have been the Chi-coms for less than a century, they have a history of many thousands of years during which they have dealt with many enemies and hardships. If I had to guess, they will not bluff forever, and they will not blink first.

The only thing that could be worse is if another of the major holders of U.S. debt thinks the Chinese dumping is imminent and they start trying to get out of the way of the avalanche. My guess is many of them will start (continue) to slowly (maybe a little faster now) divest their portfolios of our paper.