Gun Ownership Declining?

[BehindBlueI's]

Sample size of 2000? To small to make any conclusion.

 

[worddoer]

Like most polls, there is a grain of truth that is not being properly researched. Here is my belief, but it is subjective as well. I believe I am using logic, but others may disagree. There is no way to know for sure without an exhaustive study, which should not matter since firearm ownership is a right. Just like many would agree that we should not get rid of of the 1st amendment even though many may not use it daily.

I know of many, many families that are "Hunting Only" families and gun owners. My own father is one of those. He owns a shotgun and a .22 rifle. I think there are many in this "Hunting Only" mindset. What I do not know is what percentage of gun owners fit into this category. But I would think it is a significant portion....my definition of significant being 10% - 20%.

With many running to the suburbs and more urban areas from rural areas (where you cannot shoot freely), and the increasing age demographics of the typical gun owning crowd, as this group ages and either stops hunting or goes to areas where they cannot freely shoot, or pass away, they are giving up their firearms. I think this loss of gun ownership is out pacing the younger and newer shooters we are bringing into the sport.

I do think that a VERY significant portion of gun owners (50% or more in my opinion) that used to be in the category above have increased both their level of gun ownership as well as their level of gun activism and support of the 2nd amendment. So while many of us here and those we know are far more involved in firearms and protecting firearm ownership, I can see an argument that firearm owning households may be decreasing as a whole nation wide.

I think what we see here on INGO is not per say the number of firearm owners, but the intensity that they are willing to be involved in the sport and the protection of our rights. Having a lot of firearm owners who don't care about our rights is actually worse than having less that all activity participate in the protection of our rights. But it is certainly ideal to have both numbers with intensity!

 

[throttletony]

Its all about time frame -- if gun sales rose by 150% in the last 18 months, that trend cant continue.
so, yes, from the high point in gun sales, they are declining.

(Just as an example)

 

[avboiler11]

^ +1

Changing demographics and urbanization are factors that MUST be considered. Additionally, suburban/exurban sprawl combined with a healthy bit of NIMBY is pinching both organized, long-established ranges as well as shooting on privately owned land.

In other words, it is getting more difficult for people to find places to go shoot...often requiring an all-day type affair, even if only for an hour of range time. The cost/benefit for many to maintain proficiency simply gets narrower and narrower.

People who own enough land to shoot have things a bit easier, but there's still the matter of access -one can live in suburbia yet be financially secure enough to own rural land, but I've still got to get there and cost per acre combined with lay of land, etc. is pushing those areas further and further out.

 

[actaeon277]

Wasn't there an article about 20 percent of NICS checks were for 1st time buyers?

Of course, now I can't seem to find it.

 

[cosermann]

Activist polling.

 

[Wingcollector]

The study was done by a university. They are always unbiased . I thought this article was interesting: Political Bias in the Administrations and Faculties of 32 Elite Colleges and Universities - Reports - News - Students For Academic Freedom U of C had 79 Democrats and 9 Republicans ( and a bunch of "U"s)

 

[actaeon277]

NUMBER OF GUNS WE HAVE (gunsandcrime)

 

[Bfish]

Sample size of 2000? To small to make any conclusion.

WAYYY to small! You could not like your results and try another 2,000 if you wanted that is so small haha.

 

[red_zr24x4]

Hell, I don't tell the wife when I buy a gun, why would I tell a stranger?

 

[Kirk Freeman]

Ok, guys, they are sociologists. What is the preferred weapon of the sociologist? Right, the telephone.

If I called 2,000 INGO members, what percentage would tell me that they owed guns?

NO! 80%
HELL NO! 10%
MAYBE I DO, MAYBE I DON'T, NONE OF YOUR BUSINESS, CITY BOY-5%
SURE, GOT ANY .22LR TO TRADE FOR ONE? 5%

 

[jwh20]

I'm VERY skeptical of any such survey!

 

[VN Vet]

What ever the Poll tells the Pollster is fine with me. They know what they are doing or they wouldn't be in that business. As long as our Gun Shops, Firearm Makers and Ammo Makers are doing fine, we really don't care if the Pollsters are holding back on the truth to Mr. O. We don't want our enemy to know what we have or how well armed we may be. So.......

Hey Obama, you have your Headline: Gun Ownership is Declining! That's what you wanted isn't it Mr. O that the USA is becoming less well armed and ready for take over.

 

[d.kaufman]

Mainstream media reporting at its finest! I say BS!!!

 

[88E30M50]

A study done in conjunction with the University of Chicago has got to be totally neutral, right? Chicago is the hometown of the Dear Leader, so they have to be more moral and honest up there and would not think to cook the results. This must be legit if it came from the bastion of honesty and morality that has produced the top democrat.

...thinks most liberal voters!


Truth is, polls can say whatever you want them to say. Some of the libs are fairly smart and realize that people follow the pack. When the news has stories of record numbers of guns being bought, people get on board and join the crowd of gun buying folks. They need to make people start believing that gun ownership is dropping. They want people to believe that the public have given up on guns and instead, will reduce crime with social programs and lots of hugs. Hopefully, people are smart enough to realize that social programs and government hugs lead to socialism and government thugs.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

For perspective, this sample size is approximately .0006% of the US population. There is absolutely no way for it to be statistically relevant, as there is no way to guarantee a random and representative sample with such a small survey.

There are math formulas to determine what the minimum size is to have a certain percentage of having a statistically valid sample size. I've been out of school for too long (and set the curve with a C-) to do the math myself. I can bet you if any math nerds here do have the capability and desire to do the math to get even a 85% chance of a valid sample it'll be MUCH larger than 2000.

 

[venenoindy]

With the shortages of ammo and the sales of guns very high, it is hard to believe that gun ownership is declining. Major survey shows gun ownership declining - AOL.com

During Christmas if you remember the FBI background call center had a very high volume, I talk to a lot of people that are new to firearms and the other thing is if there was less interest ammo shouldn't hard to get. I think in general there are more people involved now than a couple years ago.

 

[Bennettjh]

Those stats don't seem to match up with the following facts: record gun sales, increasing number of people taking firearms training, and women being the fastest growing segment of firearms owners. I think it is much more likely that firearms owners aren't willing to tell strangers that they own firearms, particularly with the current regulatory threats around the nation. I'd be among that latter group.

 

[Lowe0]

For perspective, this sample size is approximately .0006% of the US population. There is absolutely no way for it to be statistically relevant, as there is no way to guarantee a random and representative sample with such a small survey.

There are math formulas to determine what the minimum size is to have a certain percentage of having a statistically valid sample size. I've been out of school for too long (and set the curve with a C-) to do the math myself. I can bet you if any math nerds here do have the capability and desire to do the math to get even a 85% chance of a valid sample it'll be MUCH larger than 2000.

I thought the same thing, but I decided to try to find a survey size calculator online...

Sample Size Calculator - Confidence Level, Confidence Interval, Sample Size, Population Size, Relevant Population - Creative Research Systems

...and I was surprised that it's not too bad. For 319M Americans, 95% confidence, and 2% margin of error, the sample size is 2400. I tried a couple more, just so I didn't have to rely on the first hit on Google, and they all seem to be in agreement. I agree that there are likely factors that skew this (current social attitudes both for and against firearm ownership, distrust of giving that information out, either to the government or just social engineering burglars, etc.) but the sample size doesn't seem that bad, as long as the sample is properly distributed across the factors that can be controlled for (urban/rural participation, for instance).

 

[RyanGSams]

The link in the OP is from AOL.com. Is that website even relevant anymore? They just might be trying to stay afloat by making polls and asking few people in order to make outrageous claims in order to get people to click on their website.