Economic Collapse?

[SavageEagle]

I've been doing alot of thinking about this and as horrible as it sounds, and maybe it makes me a horrible person for thinking and saying this, maybe this Country needs an economic collapse. Sure it would be aweful, but just think of what evil corporations would be demolished and thrown in the streets once the smoke cleared. You can burn me on this later but right now I'm posing two questions to you all.

First, if the markets keep the trends they are now ( /\/\/\ up down up way down ) what do you think is going to happen? Our government, the people, the makets, etc.

Second, if our economy collapsed, what do you forsee happening? Reasonably, best case, worst case, in as much detail as you can possibly muster.

Yes this will be on the final test, make it a good one!

Seriously though, I think a collapse would benefit us in the long run, kill us in the short run. I'm not an expert on any of this so I'm looking to learn something here and help educate those like me. So no bashing, no name calling, and no smacking, kicking or biting.

 

[Disposable Heart]

It's not a collapse, but a VERY VERY VIOLENT restructuring and tightening.

Worst case (#17B flash situation in my records, 17, social model B of 113 total situations)
Complete collapse would involve a governmental inability to control the economy (believe me, there is a huge tie between general business welfare and government). IF the guvment cant control the economy on even the most basic of levels, it cannot control the nation. IE Government contol failure=economic failure=national failure=epic fail. There would be fuel/food riots immediantly as companies struggle to maintain supply lines (this after a gradual and VERY apparent decline in government social services, state and federal, but uncontrollable rises in unemployment after complete failure of American financial institutions). After an initial conflict with local municipal contol entities (cops) the situation would either: stabilize into a police state with almost decades of rebuild to a livable level or degerate as national guard armories are looted and actions taken upon anything carrying a government badge/card. Inital stabilization by governmental forces would be weak and easily routed (tear gas is no match for freshly armed thugs in one HUGE mass marching upon the police stations). At this point, I would suggest people to bug out, not in. It would be a losing battle. After about 3 months, local gangs (no better term for it) would be superceded by one general gang/group after infighting and sectarian violence. They would most likely begin movements towards to outer rims of urban areas as already dwindling supplies are gone (suburbs and local rural communities), only to be routed by simple organizations or groups enforcing community security. General situation will equalize in 2 years to a basic system of survival, 6 years for stabilized fundamental system of trade and weights (basics for economy) and a re-establishment of a 1800s era economic system of banking by year 9. Any government influence could be restablished but only with a MAJOR initiative on their part (such as martial law or similar).

Meer projection

 

[nobletucky]

I have put much thought into this as well. I personally think the economy needs to fall, and the perfect candidate to achive that task is currently running for dem. president. I'll stop at that. I do however see that if the economy does crash, there will be a more positive future for our children. Its almost like you and I running up credit card bills, filing bankrupcy, and 2-3 years later, our pockets are overflowing with cash. Granted the Nat'l debt will go up, but when will it ever stop? This leads me to ask the question= what happened after the great depression? But then again your questions that you ask also depend on the "conflicts/ battles" yet to be seen when lets just say.. I don't know Russia tries to control the oil monopoly, or conflicts w/ Korea swell ect, ect.. There are many factors that could come into play that you must consider when you look at the economy in a 12 month distance. My personal opinion, it is due to crash. And if it were to crash, our communities will suffer from violence and who knows what else. I have an opinion on a worse case scenerio, but I choose not discuss or think about it, when I do I either buy a gun or ammo. Best case scenerio, your kids and mine have a better financial future. Save those bars of soap that are too small to use - you'll be rolling them together when the market crashes. You'll be taking a shower while I'm making my own soap!
I look foward to the responses and the opinions as well as you. Yet another fine topic of discussion created by SE.

 

[SavageEagle]

Just an FYI, I created this topic because I can't get any intellectual Convo from anyone in this house and there's no one else to discuss this with. Especially no one with as much knowledge as this forum can provide.

I personally horde everything. Minus unused soap. I can make my own. The only things I will need that I can't make is electricity but I'm working on that.

Nobletucky- You bring up a good point about Russia and other terrorist states. We would be much easier to infiltrate by terrorists and the like, but I believe people like us can fend off any ground assault attack they can throw at us... That's almost off topic, but I'm more worried about internal problems. Isolationism would be the best policy that I can think of in this scenario/reality...

 

[ARININ]

MAD MAX ANARCHY BY THE END OF THE YEAR!



HOPE THOSE THAT PREPARED ARE READY TO ROCK!


LOOK FOR ATTACK ON IRAN DURING OR RIGHT BEFORE COMPLETE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE!

POWERS THAT BE WILL LET ANARCHY REIGN FOR WEEKS MAYBE MONTHS MILLIONS WILL DIE!

MARTIAL LAW NAD THE RESTRUCTURING WELCOME NAU AMERO

OR IF YOU LIKE ME YOU WILL FIGHT LIKE TRUE PATRIOT!!!

GIVE ME FREEDOM OR GIVE ME DEATH

KNOW THIS the scumbags that engeinered this whole mess wil pose as the saivors DO NOT FOLLOW THEM TRUST NO ONE!!!

stay low and under the radar and if need be FIGHT BACK!

peace be with us all

 

[SavageEagle]

Oh I trust no one. And if need be I will fight.

What I want to know, is where you get this from? Is this just an off the wall prediction or do you have links with more info on this?

 

[flagtag]

I'm afraid that only the lower to middle classes will suffer from such an event. The "evil corporations" (the rich) will have (surely are now) stockpiling their money - in the form of silver and gold probably and when things settle down, will return to what they were doing before. They will not be harmed, only slowed down. They will be running the country again before long. So, in the short term, a lot of death and violence for us "poor folks". In the long term, we will end up right where we started. Only with a million fewer citizens.

BOY DO I HOPE I'M WRONG ABOUT THAT!

But, I do believe it's on the way.

 

[SavageEagle]

Well, I believe you're probably right. I also believe as ARININ does that this is, to some extent, being engineered.

But

I also believe that those hording their precious metals will find it hard to hold on to it. If violence breaks out, no matter how well protected they think they are, the masses just might assault them and take all that loot. At least that's what the smart ones will do. I think most of us won't allow the system to go back to buisness as usual.

There is an Online Novel that I can't remember the name of for the life of me... Maybe Bill of Rights will step in on this and give us the link... But this novel shows us the way Democracy should be. Forget individual states being represented. All groups or individual people should be represented. If this goes down the worst case road, I believe this is how we should rebuild. There are more of "us" than of "them" anyway...

I hope we're all wrong, but I fear doom is lurking and I'm just curious to hear everyone's worries, opinions, predictions, plans, etc.

 

[flagtag]

Yeah, it would be great to wipe the slate clean. But at what cost?

I just hope that if something like that does happen that you are right and the PEOPLE rise up and fight for a better, cleaner government.
And that those that are chosen to "lead" recognise the fact that they are our servants - or else!

 

[SavageEagle]

You're right, what cost? What cost would you pay, gold life or otherwise, to ensure a safe, better, free tomorrow for your children?

All I'm worried about right now is recognizing the signs and being prepared....

 

[flagtag]

You're right, what cost? What cost would you pay, gold life or otherwise, to ensure a safe, better, free tomorrow for your children?

All I'm worried about right now is recognizing the signs and being prepared....

You are right about that too. We ALL need to be prepared - the best we can.

The financial picture is getting worse. Just when you think it's over, another one bites the dust. Who/what is next?

Prepare and expect the worst. Then breath a sigh of relief if things turn around. The preparations will not be wasted either way.

 

[SavageEagle]

What pisses me off is this "bail out" of AIG. Now the government owns 78% of the company? WTF? So now our government owns a ruined finacial company...

How will this play out?

 

[techres]

What pisses me off is this "bail out" of AIG. Now the government owns 78% of the company? WTF? So now our government owns a ruined finacial company...

Yeah, pick one to keep:

78% failed company - AIG.
78% stable nation - Iraq.
78% failed city - Chicago.

We can only keep one, as two are too expensive and three is out of the question.

You pick.

 

[SavageEagle]

Hmmm... AIG... Fat Cats... Money... NO.
Hmmm... IRAQ! OIL! TERRORISTS! NO.
Hmmm... Chicago... Gangstas... Crime... Corruption...

I say buy American, keep Chicago. We can oust the Aholes who run it and turn it into a real nice City. AIG, IraQ, Nah, toss em, write offs.

 

[Prometheus]

Economic collapse... possibly. Learn from the past or we're doomed to repeat it.

What is our monetary system based on? Fiat. What is fiat? By decree, google it if you are more curious.

All fiat currency returns to it's real value. Nothing. Just a matter of time. Always has and always will. BTW The Founding Fathers knew it and thats why the FED was/is illegal under the Constitution.

While 'you' are googling check out 'Weimer Republic Germany'. Seriously, check it out. You all wondered how Hitler came to power.. i.e. how/why he was voted in.

This country is so fractured, so different.... there is no 'glue'. A great depression is unavoidable, that's certain. What is the wild card will be how tens of millions of people from the now generation will take to soup lines. How will the great masses who have shown their true selves in events like the LA riots and Katrina act under such circumstances?

One can only guess.

In any event, prepare yourself for sky rocketing food costs at a minimum. Mostly likely caused by bank seizures of farms, transportation and of course good old Hyper Inflation.

Argentina is a recent example... I don't count the numerous recent places in Africa because quite frankly, they've always been unstable.

Good news is that when butter is $100 a pound and milk $300 a gallon a fixed mortgage payment of $1,000 is going to seem cheap... assuming you have a job and money anyway.

 

[indyjoe]

Good news is that when butter is $100 a pound and milk $300 a gallon a fixed mortgage payment of $1,000 is going to seem cheap... assuming you have a job and money anyway.

That is true. A Mortgage is a GREAT place to ride out inflation. Fixed mortgage payments don't exist. Sure, you are paying the same amount of dollars, but the true value of that dollar changes.

This is what happened from 1965 to 1980. A typical house cost $15k in 1965. So you borrow $15k of good dollar. Now inflation is rampant and you are paying back in cheaper and cheaper dollars. By 1980, you are paid off and you house is not worth $40k. However, if you inflate the dollars you see that it is worth slightly less in 1965 dollars.

If inflation is higher than your mortgage interest rate, you are getting paid to borrow in real purchasing power of the dollar.

 

[SavageEagle]

So say all the mortgage company's were to go out of buisness instead of the government buying them up, or even going under after the gov buys them. What happens to all the people whos got a house mortgage? Do they lose their homes? Also, if 100 million people were in danger of losing their homes because bad buisness caused it, would those people have to give up their homes? I honestly don't believe that if everyone in one small town was about to be thrown into the streets that they would just up and move. I for one would defend all that I owned until the military had to be called in to evict me... But that's just me... I'm sure most people would just give in and move out.

What I don't understand is why the gov makes us pay property tax at all? Maybe while you are still paying on said property, but once it's paid off you shouldn't have to pay anymore tax on it. People moan and bitch that if tax money decreases then our "government services" will cease. Well, damn the luck. They shouldn't be giving hand outs to everyone anyway. And since we're on the subject, what all service does our government really provide for us anyway???

 

[Disposable Heart]

To quote the Simpsons, making fun of It's a Wonderful Life and the Depression:

"Wait, wait. Youre money isnt here (the bank). Its in Bob's house, and Bill's house..."
"WHAT THE HELL IS MY MONEY DOING AT YOUR HOUSE BILL!?!?!? (punch!).

Promethus is right. If we as a nation do not learn from our economic past, we are doomed to live a poor future.

Incidentally, a more realistic picture (other than the one given before by my crackheaded self) would be like the US in Dark Angel. Poor, people finally beginning to accept the situation and move forwards, but everything is degenerated and people huddle together in semi-poor housing. Homeless numbers up, but compensated for by a much larger government presence in the urban areas (more and heavier armed police).

 

[indyjoe]

So say all the mortgage company's were to go out of buisness instead of the government buying them up, or even going under after the gov buys them. What happens to all the people whos got a house mortgage? Do they lose their homes? Also, if 100 million people were in danger of losing their homes because bad buisness caused it, would those people have to give up their homes? I honestly don't believe that if everyone in one small town was about to be thrown into the streets that they would just up and move. I for one would defend all that I owned until the military had to be called in to evict me... But that's just me... I'm sure most people would just give in and move out.

When a bank folds, just like any other business, its assets are purchased. Be it via sale before hand, auction, etc. Part of this property is the title to homes that are mortgaged. It is a money producing thing. Someone will pick it up and the person you write your checks to might change. You have a legal contract so they can't modify that without your approval (i.e. make your payments higher, etc. with a mechanism not specified in the contract.)

What I don't understand is why the gov makes us pay property tax at all? Maybe while you are still paying on said property, but once it's paid off you shouldn't have to pay anymore tax on it. People moan and bitch that if tax money decreases then our "government services" will cease. Well, damn the luck. They shouldn't be giving hand outs to everyone anyway. And since we're on the subject, what all service does our government really provide for us anyway???

Your property taxes generally go towards schools, emergency services (fire, police, EMS, etc) and other local support. This is why they wouldn't just disappear when you pay off your home. This was the problem when older folks on fixed incomes were living in paid off homes that went from $40k to $200k in value. Their house has been paid off for years, but the property taxes were keeping pace with the houses appraised value. The taxes were getting large enough that they couldn't afford to even pay the taxes to live there.

It is all well and good to say eliminate property taxes. However, you will have to replace it or reduce services. While I won't be one to argue that government services don't need reduced, I wouldn't put some of the above referenced services in the mix.

I live outside of a city, so I don't have automatic trash pickup. I pay a bill every three months to a private company. This has advantages and disadvantages. I mostly like it better. However, something like the Police is not possible to contract to a private company. (I definitely don't want Blackwater running and gunning in my neighborhood.) We get less coverage for Police or Fire than Greenwood, which is only a couple miles away. There is just a great deal of area for county sheriffs to cover, versus city police.

 

[GetA2J]

<<snip>>
There is an Online Novel that I can't remember the name of for the life of me... Maybe Bill of Rights will step in on this and give us the link... But this novel shows us the way Democracy should be. Forget individual states being represented. All groups or individual people should be represented. If this goes down the worst case road, I believe this is how we should rebuild. There are more of "us" than of "them" anyway...

I hope we're all wrong, but I fear doom is lurking and I'm just curious to hear everyone's worries, opinions, predictions, plans, etc.

The online novel is "The Probability Broach" found here: Big Head Press - Thoughtful Stories, Graphic Novels Online And In Print - The Probability Broach: The Graphic Novel, by L. Neil Smith and Scott Bieser