Coronavirus II

[CampingJosh]

Ignoring the fact that a lot of the 6% is likely to be older folks who aren’t the heavier consumers, wouldn’t you prefer a 6% drop in consumer spending vs. more like 50-75% if everyone’s sheltering in place and their jobs are going away permanently? The former might cause a recession while the latter would certainly be a depression.

Again, we're talking about 6% forever or the higher percentage for a month or two.

The jobs going away permanently? Do you think restaurants are never going to exist again?

 

[Alpo]

**** it. go ahead and try. You can even take a run at me with a molotov.

make my century.

 

[JettaKnight]

I guess the explicit warning that I wasn't advocating for anything didn't convince you, so I'll say it again: I'm not advocating we go murder all of the old people.

My point was that the consumer spending of the elderly vs. specifically middle agers isn't even a contest. if the death toll goes as high at 6%, the current data suggests most of those folks will be elderly, therefore the economic impact you're predicting likely won't be as severe as you fear.

That is all I'm saying. Not "Go kill all the old people." You wanna read back through the 700 or so pages of CV you'll see me be very "let's not kill lots of people, regardless" in my positions.

But the mortuary business will be boomin'!

Then you'll have a bunch of boomers spending inherited money on cruise ships and at Margaritaville.

 

[maxwelhse]

**** it. go ahead and try. You can even take a run at me with a molotov.

make my century.

I can smell the burning Vick's and Worther's Originals already... I'll be right over!

 

[nonobaddog]

Last I checked, the average age of the cruise market was in the range of 40-50 years old.

Probably a lot of grandparents with money taking their grandkids on a cruise.

 

[Alpo]

Last I checked, the average age of the cruise market was in the range of 40-50 years old.

That's the thing about averages chip. There are people on both sides of the median and/or mean.

And that would seem to include OLD PEOPLE.

In addition, grampaw and grandmaw are more than likely paying the freight for the loser daughter and her 50 year old crack addict husband to travel with them.

 

[Alpo]

Probably a lot of grandparents with money taking their grandkids on a cruise.

See?

All the dawgs agree.

 

[maxwelhse]

But the mortuary business will be boomin'!

Then you'll have a bunch of boomers spending inherited money on cruise ships and at Margaritaville.

You're assuming the inheritance chain from dead Gen-Xers will go back up hill to the Boomers? I mean, I'm sure that happens, but it seems like it would be far more common for that chain to go down (kids, spouse, etc).

 

[CampingJosh]

I guess the explicit warning that I wasn't advocating for anything didn't convince you, so I'll say it again: I'm not advocating we go murder all of the old people.

You can't play "devil's advocate" without at least allowing a response to what you have said. The "devil's advocate" position of just let the at-risk population die is a position of encouraging genocide. If you're going to point out that it's a possibility, I'm going to point out that it's a horrific one.

 

[rvb]

6% forever vs. 30% for two months. Which one comes out ahead after a year?

2 months? Do we expect businesses that have had to shut their doors for two months will all start right back up like nothing happened? Some might, but not all. And 3.3M filing unemployment and counting... what % of the workforce is that, and how many will be back to work in 2 months? not all, I'm sure. Not to mention impact to people's retirement accounts, impacts on things like new home construction, tourism (spring break would have started this week for our kids), etc. Heck, my wife and I were talking about upgrading our camper and that spending is at least on hold for a while, meanwhile I hear right here on INGO the place we would have bought from may be closing. People that have savings to live off of will have to rebuild their nest egg. This is not a two month impact, even if the quarantines end and life goes back to normal 1 April.

-rvb

 

[HoughMade]

I have no idea what suicide or stupidity has to do with a large part of the population having a overblown fear of death in general and a overblown fear of a pandemic.
We are all going to die at some point I am not saying you should go around licking door knobs or endanger others but after a time life must go on if we stay shutdown to placate everyone we will go broke and won’t have a future.

Fear of death? Not really, but I like to think that my family would benefit more from having me around for a while longer than they would from the big life insurance policy. The thought of not being around for my wife, to get my kids into adulthood and seeing my grandchildren, yeah, I wouldn't like that and I'm not afraid to say it.

 

[Dead Duck]

WOW!
So, how many dead loved ones thrown in a pile would make you guys happy?
Make the best of what you've been dealt.



Remember.... We are all in this together. Just separately.

 

[Alpo]

I can smell the burning Vick's and Worther's Originals already... I'll be right over!

Interesting thing. A couple of years ago, I ranged my neighborhood. My wife thought I was nuts.

Not so much any more....

 

[smokingman]

**** this virus crap.
I'm moving to the north pole.

Waves from pretty darn close. Originally from Columbus Indiana,then Whiteland for years.
Moved to a bit north of Two Harbors in 2012. Came back to up here 8 days ago.

 

[CampingJosh]

And 3.3M filing unemployment and counting... what % of the workforce is that, and how many will be back to work in 2 months? not all, I'm sure.

It's about 2%.

I would expect that most will be back to work quickly after the virus is beaten unless we have a large portion of the population die. Again, do you think people are permanently changing their eating habits and won't return to restaurants?

 

[T.Lex]

Also, point of clarification (maybe).

The only age group that appears to be unaffected by this is the <13 group. Those Americans tend not to a) make money, b) spend money. Its the 20-40 year old set that spend money for those groups.

Newer information suggest that the previous "only +60 people die from this" is not true anymore, if it ever was. Cases of healthy 40 year olds getting this and ending up dead are coming in. Along with 20 year olds who live, but with VERY limited respiratory function, which impacts their ability to make money and will probably lead to a shorter lifespan.

Just sayin.

 

[MarkC]

2 months? Do we expect businesses that have had to shut their doors for two months will all start right back up like nothing happened? Some might, but not all. And 3.3M filing unemployment and counting... what % of the workforce is that, and how many will be back to work in 2 months? not all, I'm sure. Not to mention impact to people's retirement accounts, impacts on things like new home construction, tourism (spring break would have started this week for our kids), etc. Heck, my wife and I were talking about upgrading our camper and that spending is at least on hold for a while, meanwhile I hear right here on INGO the place we would have bought from may be closing. People that have savings to live off of will have to rebuild their nest egg. This is not a two month impact, even if the quarantines end and life goes back to normal 1 April.

-rvb

Ryan's take seems reasonable, and I've had the same thoughts myself. Even if a miracle cure is found tonight and administered to everyone on Friday, recovery would not be instant.

I just delivered some pet supplies to a disabled shut-in couple nearby. They related both of their adult daughters were out of work; one is a healthcare aide, suffering from diagnosed influenza-A. She cannot go back to work until she is completely symptom-free (rightly so). The other was changing jobs when COVID hit, and the new job was no longer there. The couple themselves were out of necessary food and supplies for their rescue cats.

I know the plural of anecdotes isn't data, but I would think their situations are not unique, or, unfortunately, uncommon. This is going to take a while.

 

[HoughMade]

Also, point of clarification (maybe).

The only age group that appears to be unaffected by this is the <13 group. Those Americans tend not to a) make money, b) spend money. Its the 20-40 year old set that spend money for those groups.

Newer information suggest that the previous "only +60 people die from this" is not true anymore, if it ever was. Cases of healthy 40 year olds getting this and ending up dead are coming in. Along with 20 year olds who live, but with VERY limited respiratory function, which impacts their ability to make money and will probably lead to a shorter lifespan.

Just sayin.

Anecdotes do not disprove probabilities.

 

[Alpo]

And...they appear to also develop problems in their manhood.....


....of course, that is only anecdotal at this point. We'll have to wait for long term studies.

 

[smokingman]

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/new-york-coronavirus-cases-updates.html


Health officials in New York City and Los Angeles County are signaling a change in local strategy when it comes to coronavirus testing, recommending that doctors avoid testing patients except in cases where a test result would significantly change the course of treatment.
A news release from the Los Angeles Department of Public Health this week advised doctors not to test those experiencing only mild respiratory symptoms unless “a diagnostic result will change clinical management or inform public health response.
At about the same time, the New York City Department of Health directed all healthcare facilities to immediately stop testing non-hospitalized patients for Covid-19.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news...0-intl-hnk/h_78c431662464112a27434663a0860cdc

It will cause my worst case numbers,especially if they ease lockdowns. No testing=no contact tracing =no stopping the spread.

Watch for the changes that will take place in the media. I am just taking a stab at it,but given logic it is where the message is going.

Look at(any other country on earth,but the USA) and how bad it is somewhere other than where you are.

Look at this study(fake studies,and bad science to down play what covid-19 is doing).More promise of treatments that work or vaccines(much like the now proved false malaria drug).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...no-better-than-regular-covid-19-care-in-study

Less criticism of responses be it state or federal governments,but open season for attacks on individual people.

You will not hear more stories like the ones coming out of New York with entire families in intensive care units together. You are not supposed to see things like this anymore. Yes that is one family 4 dead 3 still in ICU.

https://www.insider.com/new-jersey-...al-condition-relative-died-coronavirus-2020-3

Less focus on what is being done to help stop covid-19 and more about needing you to go back to work.

Cheer leading. This or that is great. The topic really does not matter. Shoveling any news they can to bring up lower moral,while ignoring reality altogether.

I suspect covid-19 will not be front page news in the next few weeks(I give it 3-4 weeks before it is off of front pages).

Yes,I still expect some of the things I posted about. Supply line issues,manufacturing issues,and I have a growing concern about food production facilities as I have seen many articles on workers walking out of them in other countries because the companies had no measures in place to reduce covid-19 cases(much like the now 8 shut down Amazon warehouses). Also note the link of the website,then look at the article title,it has already been edited multiple times.
https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...zon-warehouses-test-positive-for-coronavirus"

Things that have not been issues will become issues. Things like funerals are already not happening in California,NY,and NJ. If they are allowed it is immediate family only. Grief will need a new process.


The anger stage after the acceptance stage is part of the reason I am in no longer in Indianapolis.When a family member dies and they tell them some bs reason,when the family knows it was covid-19 it will not go well.

So where are we now? You are probably sitting at home like over 50% of Americans at this point. Wondering ...no wanting things to be back to normal.
They will use that against you in every way imaginable. Things are not going to be normal,but if you look around in say 2 weeks you might not realize it anymore.It may look normal.The alarms from most of the media will have stopped,you may even find yourself back at work.

Protect yourself and your family. Do anything you can to lessen your risk. Have masks? Wear them. Get packages or do shopping,treat everything you touch as infected and sanitize it(1/3 a cup of bleach per gallon of water works just fine).
Try to not be in confined spaces(this to me includes sharing air with anyone else at this point),and if you have to be wear a mask.I am not certain of how the spin on this will play out. I can tell you for certain they are slowing testing,and at this point it is unlikely we will follow other countries in testing and isolating cases.

It will not be the end of our country or the human race,but I am also fairly certain that soon you will no longer hear about how bad things have become. With the war on information(infomatics as the WHO calls it) the message you hear will be what they want you to hear.

Please take care of yourself and those you love. I know some of you have situational awareness. You need pandemic awareness. Everything you do in the coming months,and I mean everything should be measured and weighed. Is it worth risking your life for?Yes our reality has changed,if you do not adapt or reject accepting that you may just be another number somewhere.

First example. I doubt the peer reviewed model was that wrong. I doubt the new one is worth the time it took to print it.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epid...ook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=benshapiro

"Look at this study(fake studies,and bad science to down play what covid-19 is doing)"