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    ditcherman

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    In the country, hopefully.
    It makes a huge difference. Virus start spreading in November/December leading to 60K deaths (what might be representative of what really happened) is worlds different from Virus start spreading in February/March leading to 200K to 1MM+ deaths (what was largely a scare tactic).
    I have seen the light now. It could still be a train, but that’s solid logic.

    When one looks at where we are now with this wuhan virus, I don't see the importance of whether or not it was first here in January vs December.
    I think it’s important from the aspect that many of us might already have immunity and therefore be about normal activity. Only “the vulnerables” shelter in place.
     

    chipbennett

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    It is more contagious. It is more fatal. We don't have a vaccine. We don't have a proven treatment regimen for it.

    Other than that....

    Point of clarification: we don't know that it is more contagious or more fatal than seasonal flu. We are assuming that, based on woefully inadequate data regarding infection rate.

    We don't (yet) have a vaccine - though several are in process. We don't have treatments that have completed the three-phase clinical process - though, again, there are several in process.
     

    chipbennett

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    I have seen the light now. It could still be a train, but that’s solid logic.

    Not sure if sarcasm, or...?

    The reality of virulence and fatality is likely somewhere between those two extremes. We are determining public policy based on assuming where we are on the spectrum between the two. The prudence and acceptability of that public policy depends on where we actually are on that spectrum.
     

    nonobaddog

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    There is a reason it is worded as subjunctive. That if is a big if.

    What was quoted doesn't say that. What has been reported in this thread supports that it might be the practice.

    If you actually read the guidelines you will see that the implications put forth in this thread such as above are far less reasonable than reality.
     

    HoughMade

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    True.

    Nor would we in the absence of the pandemic, either. (And I have a great deal of historical support for that.)

    ...but there is a pandemic which causes death in disproportionately high numbers in the SS receiving population and spreads more easily where hygiene is less prioritized.

    Don't say I'm not a "silver lining" kind of guy.
     

    Ingomike

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    I can see right now, no matter what proof is brought before you will dispute anything, it's more than just flattening the curve. If you can prevent the spread to a new host, it prevents the transmission to another person and the vicious cycle that has transposed over this whole crisis. Each ensuing cycle will over burden resources that have already been stretched thin because of the physical and mental burdens placed upon our first responders and medical providers, they are human.

    While it may not be a wipe the population event, 35 percent of the US population is over 50, so 114 million give a take a few can be effected along with younger ones. Can we take a hit like that, no we can't, no country can.

    So please don't try to morph this into a anti 2nd style argument because that is a apple to oranges argument. I already have a friend in ICU because of a idiot co-worker got him infected because even though he had all the signs and symptoms, he was hiding it with Ibuprofen and cough drops. May you be lucky enough to not get this.

    Our good doc posted recently that in over 40 studies since 1976 they have found 36,000- 57,000 die, per million, for each 1% of unemployment increase. That is a huge number that makes the current C-19 projection look puny. No you will not see it in overrun ICU's but these deaths are just as real as any coronavirus death. I am sorry you know someone that is fighting C-19 and I will pray for them and you.

    Really? The "if it saves one life" argument is the same no matter what it is applied to...
     

    HoughMade

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    If you actually read the guidelines you will see that the implications put forth in this thread such as above are far less reasonable than reality.

    Reality to accomplish what? 100% prevention was never the goal and is not possible in any event.

    Why do people get hung up on the preventative measures not being perfect? That's a "no **** Sherlock" observation.
     

    HoughMade

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    mortality higher in areas where fewer people are tested. go figure.

    indiana is absolutely flat on new cases. so is the US. the world has been flat for a week.

    COVID-19 - Georg-August-Universität Göttingen

    You mean to tell me that the mortality rates are higher where they test fewer people and primarily test people with significant symptoms?

    giphy.gif
     

    ghuns

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    I have some 200 proof alcohol but I don't drink.

    Not unless you want to be blinder than Stevie Wonder in a cave.;)

    ...Costco has great pricing on 1.75 L booze if you didn’t already know. In order to save money, though, I’ve broken out the “Doomsday Bank Account” and have been consuming it. Id forgotten how bland Jim Beam was.:(

    I haven't had to break into the doomsday account yet, or the doomsday liquor stash.

    On the good doctor's orders that higher alcohol content is better, I'm sticking with this for right now...

    BJsgoQwm.jpg


    Above the magic 65% alcohol number, it's like Purell for your insides.:yesway:
     

    nonobaddog

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    Reality to accomplish what? 100% prevention was never the goal and is not possible in any event.

    Why do people get hung up on the preventative measures not being perfect? That's a "no **** Sherlock" observation.

    That had nothing to do with preventive measures at all. The subject was the reality of what the guidelines actually say regarding diagnosing COVID-19 as the cause of death. The real guidelines are much more reasonable than some of the conjecture put forth here.
     

    T.Lex

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    mortality higher in areas where fewer people are tested. go figure.

    indiana is absolutely flat on new cases. so is the US. the world has been flat for a week.

    COVID-19 - Georg-August-Universität Göttingen

    Flat on "new" cases. Doc - are you using "new" as in "new infections" or "newly discovered." There are assumptions to both that deserve to be explicit. One of the problems is what kind of "new" case is it - one that is admitted to the hospital for severe respiratory problems or one that is the result of contact tracing.

    While "new" cases are flattening (whichever definition you want to use) the deaths are increasing. Sure there will be a lag of - what 5 to 10 days? - between diagnosis and resolution of a patient, but if the "new" cases only reflect what we're finding by community spread, then it kinda doesn't matter. The number of "new" cases doesn't actually reflect the spread.
     

    JettaKnight

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    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/08/funeral-birthday-party-hugs-covid-19/

    Chiraqi made the news on a CDC study from FEB on how a funeral and bday party got everyone in the family sick and caused at least 3 c-virus deaths so far. All because an out of town family member who was sick, coughing, came to the events! :facepalm:

    Play stupid games, win stupid prizes? :dunno:




    For the life of me, I could not figure out why the former president of France was involved, and why you spelled his name wrong...
     

    HoughMade

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    That had nothing to do with preventive measures at all. The subject was the reality of what the guidelines actually say regarding diagnosing COVID-19 as the cause of death. The real guidelines are much more reasonable than some of the conjecture put forth here.

    Sorry for the confusion. As for the guidelines....I don't so much care whether they "inflate" the numbers to some extent as long as they are uniform. Trends are what I am interested rather than raw numbers.
     

    HoughMade

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    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/08/funeral-birthday-party-hugs-covid-19/
    Chiraqi made the news on a CDC study from FEB on how a funeral and bday party got everyone in the family sick and caused at least 3 c-virus deaths so far. All because an out of town family member who was sick, coughing, came to the events! :facepalm:
    Play stupid games, win stupid prizes? :dunno:

    For the life of me, I could not figure out why the former president of France was involved, and why you spelled his name wrong...

    They should have had a crystal ball? This was in February.
     
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