Can someone help me understand the ammo shortage?

[LANShark42]

Ok. I understand that after Sandy Hook, everyone in the US who didn't already own a gun (including me) ran out and bought one. And I understand that those noobs now need ammunition. But I don't understand why every place I go into that sells ammo is out of 9mm and .22LR (among others). The manufacturers still have the same capacity to produce, right? I can understand why they might not want to ramp up production for a (hopefully) temporary spike in buying, but at the very least, it seems to me they should be making the stuff at maximum caoacity, right? So Wally World and Joe Schmoe's gun shop WeSellAmmoForLess.com should all be getting the same ammo shipments they always did, RIGHT???

I just don't get it...

 

[HavokCycle]

Ok. I understand that after Sandy Hook, everyone in the US who didn't already own a gun (including me) ran out and bought one. And I understand that those noobs now need ammunition. But I don't understand why every place I go into that sells ammo is out of 9mm and .22LR (among others). The manufacturers still have the same capacity to produce, right? I can understand why they might not want to ramp up production for a (hopefully) temporary spike in buying, but at the very least, it seems to me they should be making the stuff at maximum caoacity, right? So Wally World and Joe Schmoe's gun shop WeSellAmmoForLess.com should all be getting the same ammo shipments they always did, RIGHT???

I just don't get it...

no. when shops are emptied, they increase orders to distributors because they want to fill the current demand, and keep stock for themselves.

the hording attitude, because of the short supply, exacerbates the situation. i myself am guilty 'oh you have 20 boxes of 9mm? i'll take em'
it will continue until the hoarders get bored and/or run out of money. give it til summer.

can't say we'll ever see a decent price again tho.

 

[EOD Guy]

Look what happened to Twinkies when Hostess went belly up. People went nuts and bought them up. Same thing happened to anything that went bang mid December. If tomorrow Bloomberg decided to ban doughnuts...guess what would happen in the People's Democratic Republic of NYC?

 

[rockhopper46038]

Manufacturers can't afford to hold large amounts of DSI in this global environment, thereby making large demand spikes (such as we have seen) more difficult to quickly address. Even the most vertical of ammunition manufacturers are still dependent on the lead time from the mill for their brass stock once they deplete their safety stock of formed brass and raw material stock. Same thing with lead, whether they buy finished bullets or mold and coat their own. Companies these days can't afford to tie up working capital as raw or finished goods inventory.

 

[HICKMAN]

don't let them fool you, we are doing this because it's an excuse we can give our wives...


"Obamer is cummin to take my gurns!"

"Dey terk yer gurns!"

 

[00Buck]

supply and demand

9mm & 22lr are the most common firearms and most affordable cartridges.

 

[UncleMike]

Ok. I understand that after Sandy Hook, everyone in the US who didn't already own a gun (including me) ran out and bought one. And I understand that those noobs now need ammunition. But I don't understand why every place I go into that sells ammo is out of 9mm and .22LR (among others). The manufacturers still have the same capacity to produce, right? I can understand why they might not want to ramp up production for a (hopefully) temporary spike in buying, but at the very least, it seems to me they should be making the stuff at maximum caoacity, right? So Wally World and Joe Schmoe's gun shop WeSellAmmoForLess.com should all be getting the same ammo shipments they always did, RIGHT???

I just don't get it...

Some of the "shortage" is driven by HUGE long term contract orders from the Federal Government for the most popular calibers and "Speculative buyers".
Another factor is the nature of American manufacturing today.
Forty years ago the ammo manufacturers would have gone to their warehouse and pulled out the reserve supplies to meet the higher demands.
Today everyone uses the JIT (Just In Time) manufacturing model and there are no warehouses to draw from.
Eventually everyone will catch up and supplies will recoup.
Until then we all just need to wait out the panic buyers and the Speculators who are buying large amounts of ammo as a hedge fund.

 

[Jarhead77]

I think when the knuckleheads realize they don't need 10,000 rounds for the pistol they just sold for less than they paid for it ...because everyone was doing it and, well why not?

 

[HavokCycle]

Manufacturers can't afford to hold large amounts of DSI in this global environment, thereby making large demand spikes (such as we have seen) more difficult to quickly address. Even the most vertical of ammunition manufacturers are still dependent on the lead time from the mill for their brass stock once they deplete their safety stock of formed brass and raw material stock. Same thing with lead, whether they buy finished bullets or mold and coat their own. Companies these days can't afford to tie up working capital as raw or finished goods inventory.

the attitude in manufacturing for the last five years or so has been trending to -just in time- principles.
meaning, they keep little inventory on hand that isn't sold, and keep minimal raw materials handy. when you have demand spikes and aren't ready for it, be it parts or personnel, there is going to be a backlog.
the network of companies to just get you a factory cartridge is staggering, or really any product. suppliers for this, distributors for that, raw materials importers - brass contains nickel and copper, which come from China and Brazil, respectively. Lead comes from US tho. it takes about six months from purchase order to hit the manufacturers doors.
if they ALL subscribe to Lean manufacturing then you're going to wind up with this.

 

[upalot]

Don't you watch Preppers, its buried all over the country just waiting for the bugout.

 

[grogie]

I was watching a live update of a stores stock of 26 1000-round cases of 9mm. It went down to zero in about 20 minutes. I almost bought one or two, but I thought their price was too high. But obviously others did not think so.

 

[miguel]

Maybe Profire made more ammo than we thought?

 

[dbishop728]

I like Upalots reply lol

 

[worddoer]

1. The manufacturers still have the same capacity to produce, right? I can understand why they might not want to ramp up production for a (hopefully) temporary spike in buying, but at the very least, it seems to me they should be making the stuff at maximum capacity, right?

2. So Wally World and Joe Schmoe's gun shop WeSellAmmoForLess.com should all be getting the same ammo shipments they always did, RIGHT???

1. Yes, the manufacturers do have the same capacity. However, since you admitted you just started looking into firearms, you may not realize that the supply chain was already very tight before the tragic Sandy Hook incident. Manufacturers were already running 24/7 at maximum capacity. So the very tight supply chain became anemic since there is no extra manufacturing capacity. We were already maxed out in production.

2. The buying surge started with the last election at the beginning of November. And increased exponentially after Sandy Hook. At this point, people are buying up inventory minutes after it is available. Most websites that sell ammo would see their supplies purchased over weeks. Now they see that same amount of ammo purchased within 10-30 minutes. Retailers are still offering what they receive from the manufactures. They just can't keep hold of it because it is selling so incredibly fast.

So who is buying this ammo? Both new firearm owners and old firearm owners.

The experienced crew is buying for the purpose of hoarding. They don't want to run out of ammo in future years. Their fear (debatable wither or not it is unfounded) is that ammo will be unavailable in the future.

The new firearm owners (like yourself) want to purchase ammo to practice with their new gun...but they are hoarding some too. Maybe not as much, but it is still happening. I can tell you are frustrated by this. But unfortunately, there is only 2 solutions to your problem. Either watch the Internet so closely that you can be one of those who buys ammo when it is in stock for those 10-30 minutes. Or you will have to learn to be patient. In 2-5 months things will slow down and ammo should start being available again. History has proved this. History has also proved that when the ammo become available, it will probably be at a higher price. It is the nature of things and cannot be avoided.