Behney in Greencastle tonight

[Indiana Feller]

I'm just going to dispense with the BS and vote for Wile E. Coyote. If a non-politician plumber turned freedom activist can't do it, then we sure as well won't find any other non-politician type to do the job. We're screwed no matter how one votes.

This is why people stay home.

I welcome someone to cheer me up and convince me that there is any hope at all.

You have 4 candidates that are conservative and want to represent you. Be informed, pick one that best represents you and vote. If we all did this we would have real representation. It takes time to be informed. It's worth it! We have been apathetic and look at the freedoms we have lost!

 

[photoshooter]

I've seen Behney touting himself as a Navy veteran. I was told tonight that he was discharged under less than honorable conditions. Can you elaborate on that photoshooter? I was rather surprised by it.

It's in his book. You can read it for yourself, but I'll paraphrase.

Fresh out of high school he joined the Navy. He got his dream slot: Air Traffic Controller (4-0 student and top in his class).

In the early 80s, the Navy began random pee tests of key personnel (pilots, ATCs, etc). Richard, and several pilots had their tests in one of those waves of pee tests came back with a false-positive.

This was a new procedure/process for the Navy... what do you do with pilots and ATCs that test positive on their pee test?

Instead of being smart about it, some CO involved panicked about the PR side of the issue.

They did order blood tests - which came back negative. (The correct methodology according to my wife, a Clinical Laboratory Scientist, ASCP - she reports that the blood test was/is considered the standard, since false-positives were / still are extremely rare on the blood side, but were very common on the pee side, especially in the 1980s).

The Navy was still embarrassed by the initial report - and read the guys the riot act, threatened Captains Masts (court martial).

The Captains Masts didn't go forward since the BLOOD tests came back negative... but, new tech, new situations, and embarrassed COs ... (remember - this is back in the 80s before universal precautions were standard in medical labs) made a silly situation that should not have been a problem, turn into a potential PR nightmare for the Navy.

Eventually they pushed those involved into a choice - take an administrative discharge (Not a Dishonorable, but not Honorable since their contract of service wouldn't be fulfilled) - or take a bust in rank, lose the Air slot permanently (go serve on a ship somewhere as a basic grunt).

Richard admits that his biggest mistake he ever made, 20 some years ago, was taking the discharge, instead of staying in.

I've heard tell that 60 minutes or 20/20 did an expose on the situation/procedure and the pilots who received the same treatment and were drummed out of the Navy - but it was before the Inter-webs, and I haven't been able to find it yet.

 

[CarmelHP]

I'll take it on faith that it was all an innocent misunderstanding, but, if he didn't complete the air traffic control training (at least that's what the e-mail I got from an old navy officer friend claimed) then why is he claiming to be a veteran Navy air traffic controller with no mention of a less than honorable discharge? Seems somewhat misleading to me.

What year is this supposed to have occurred, BTW?

 

[photoshooter]

I'll take it on faith that it was all an innocent misunderstanding, but, if he didn't complete the air traffic control training (at least that's what the e-mail I got from an old navy officer friend claimed) then why is he claiming to be a veteran Navy air traffic controller with no mention of a less than honorable discharge? Seems somewhat misleading to me.

What year is this supposed to have occurred, BTW?

IIRC: He completed ATC training was was fully enlisted, working down in Texas.

There are folks out right now trying hard to get Richard out of the race. If he is so insignificant in this race, and weren't pulling much support, I don't believe that the attacks against him would be so vehement.

 

[CarmelHP]

IIRC: He completed ATC training was was fully enlisted, working down in Texas.

There are folks out right now trying hard to get Richard out of the race. If he is so insignificant in this race, and were'n't pulling much support, I don't believe that the attacks against him would be so vehement.

Attacks so vehement? You said he wrote about it in a book. Now politely asking about it and accepting a fairly hard to believe explanation is now a vehement attack? If he's that thin skinned, how's he going to fair under any pressure at all. What is he, another Baron Hill? Don't dare question me? Representing himself as a veteran for his short, less than honorable service? Compared to attacks you've made on opponents, he's been handled with kid gloves here.

 

[melensdad]

There are a few problems with your assessment. . .
Also, any internal polling by GOPers is going to concentrate on Strong to Moderate Republican likely voters. At most, IMO, this poll was probably conducted on 1000 or less voters that fit those criteria.

How many Tea Partiers were actually polled in that one?

Well IF you are correct and this was a statistically idiotic and invalid poll that only assessed internal members of the GOP then I'd give you some credit.

But I find ZERO evidence that this poll was not a statistically significant cross section of likely voters. Consequently your assessment is totally wrong.

 

[photoshooter]

Well IF you are correct and this was a statistically idiotic and invalid poll that only assessed internal members of the GOP then I'd give you some credit.

But I find ZERO evidence that this poll was not a statistically significant cross section of likely voters. Consequently your assessment is totally wrong.

Exclusive: Leaked Senate Primary Poll | Hoosier Advocate

This is a race in the GOP primary. It is credited as "conducted by one of the Republican candidates for the U.S. Senate in Indiana."

But, no info is given beyond "likely voters." Does that include likely democrat voters? likely Libertarian voters?

We don't have the details to make that decision.

IMO: that poll came from one of two camps: Coats or Hostettler.

Seeing the coordinated attempts across Indiana on forums, mailing lists and personal emails to myself and other Behney staffers (I wonder if any Stutzman campaign volunteers have gotten similar emails?)...

- I'd say this was a very planned attempt by some sort of Hostettler camp (perhaps not the main group of campaign staffers) to scare support away from Behney Bates and Stutzman so that our new political savior can defeat Darth Dan in May.

NOTE to CARMELHP: I was not referring to your requests for info as part of the push to get the others out of the race. But, this discussion is NOT limited to just this one forum. We've got folks pushing this idea elsewhere as well. My apologies if I came across that you were doing so.

 

[melensdad]

YES, "likely voters" would be a poll of the general public, all people. It is likely a telephone survey. One of the early questions in the poll would be "are you planning to vote in the primary?" That would be a very typical survey qualifying question. Answers would include "Yes"; "very likely"; "not likely" and "no."

More than likely the poll would have been commissioned by Coats and the GOP since they have the establishment to protect.

 

[photoshooter]

What were Ellsworth's numbers?

 

[melensdad]

What were Ellsworth's numbers?

Depends on the poll, but in every poll I've seen he the looser against the 3 leading GOP candidates. However against Stutzman if you factor in the Undecided Ellsworth could win by 1 point, also if the 'margin of error' is factored in then Ellsworth could win by up to 4 or 5 points.



Bear in mind I don't care which GOP candidate wins the primary race as long as it is NOT Dan Coats.

I believe that THIS CLOSE TO THE ELECTION it makes sense to rally support around the leading contender to Coats. That is currently Hostettler. He also polls best against Ellsworth in EVERY poll by the WIDEST margins, even when comparing polls between Coats and Ellsworth.

 

[photoshooter]

Sorry, I didn't make myself clear.

In the "leaked" poll, where "likely voters" across Indiana were polled, which, as you say, should include a wide sprectrum of voters - I assume that means dems, libertarians, tea partiers, etc...

What were Ellsworth's numbers?

You see, if Ellworth's numbers weren't listed - were voters even asked about him? The poll wouldn't be very accurate to poll the full spectrum of voters - instead of just polling GOPers - and not ask about Elsworth. Compare the poll to the Rassmussen one I posted a link to in the other thread on this.

I still contend that until we have more data on the "leaked" poll, we have to be very careful how we treat the numbers. We just don't have enough data on how that poll was conducted, or on who was polled, to make accurate judgments on the little bit of data available.

 

[melensdad]

The Hoosier Pundit website clearly states they were LIKELY VOTERS, just read what it says and you will see they are polling LIKELY VOTERS. No polling company worth a darn will publish data that makes them look like idiots. LIKELY VOTERS would be people likely to vote in the primary and anyone of any party can do that.

As for Ellswroth's numbers, for which poll are you questioning. I've not seen any poll that did not include Ellsowrth included. Some even included Baron Hill, but I consider those outdated polls and disregard those.

As for the whole question of the 'leaked' poll, I honestly don't give a darn who leaked it. It doesn't really matter. It coincides with all the other data that I have seen so even if it was leaked by one or another it doesn't much matter. All the data points to only 2 people in the race, Coats and, to a lesser extent, Hostettler. You may also want to see the Ft Wayne newspaper's editorial, they show it at Coats the clear leader. Since he has at least a 3 point lead over Hostettler that might be good enough for them to say "clear leader" but then again they could have their own internal Poll? Or they could be going on the fact that Coats has heavier support in the Ft Wayne area than in some other areas of the state?

Seems to me you are getting hung up on stuff that is of little to no consequence. No single poll is guaranteed to be accurate. Multiple polls, combined, show a clear trend. That is the best we can rely on.

 

[photoshooter]

While you're at it, you probably out to add in the straw polls amongst the grassroots folks at the Warsaw and Huntington Tea Party debates.

Hostettler finished behind Stutzman, Behney and Bates at both of those.

So, I'll ask again about your earlier claim that the grassroots is supporting Hostettler (thereby implying that he's got more grassroots than the other guys in the race): Where are the grassroots polls? there aren't any listed on Google or any other search engine.

All we have is "likely voters" - but is that likely voters in the GOP primary? or Likely voters in the General this fall? The Rassmussen was probably likely for this fall, since it gave stats of the three GOP insider candidates vs the Dem Insider candidate.

We don't know that distinction on the leaked poll (likely in primary or in the general). We only have the carefully leaked results - not the story behind the numbers.

Are they any less valid? No. Are the straw polls any less valid? No.

The only poll that matters is the one on May 4th. If Darth Dan wins that one, I'll blame the 4th guy to jump into the race - not the first three who have been running since last summer.