Beer Virus V

[SheepDog4Life]

Now, no...

And how about you... is there no scenario in which a shutdown/lockdown is appropriate in your opinion? I.e. are you #NeverLockdown?

For covid? No. Not justifiable.

Not for Covid. Absolutely no.

Ok, this is where I would disagree... IF and ONLY IF we reached a point where hospitals were stretched beyond capacity by severe and critical COVID patients... no capacity for heart attacks, car accidents, etc. as well as "severe" but savable COVID patients dying from lack of oxygen tanks and simple steroids, etc. then THAT is a scenario that calls for another lock down.

Full on Northern Italy in late March with people dying in the streets.

I understand both of you believe that couldn't happen here... I hope you are right, but I'm seeing no evidence yet that it can't or won't.

Hopefully tapping the brakes, downshifting the phases, and people changing their infection control habits turns the current tide.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

I have posted on this to you before. I have no idea why Indiana is behaving this way, but your particular state's behavior doesn't extrapolate to similar areas. I've already done a precis for the whole US, now I'll do Ohio first in the daily trend graphs that I find quite noisy and then in the cumulative graphs I prefer

Daily cases steady state from mid July through late September, when a strong uptrend begins. This strong uptrend, although within your preferred 4 to 6 week latency, results in no appreciable increase in deaths.

Cumulative charting shows the same thing, flat through the summer and then a strong case spike starting in late September; and again the rate of deaths remains quite linear and unaffected by the spike in cases, even though it has been six or seven weeks since it started

The national data is essentially the same pattern exhibited by Ohio, with case number spikes having no appreciable affect on death rate

Indiana has roughly 2/3 the population density of Ohio, as well as being adjoining and similar in terrain and climate. I can't tell you why Indiana is acting the way it is but I can tell you the behavior appears unique to Indiana and I don't believe the current ramp in the case rates will result in a spike in the death rate nationally

No idea why Ohio is behaving as it is... I'll look at it some more when I have time.

But, Indiana is not the unique one, Ohio is.... for example, Illinois looks just like Indiana, but with a later start:

Iowa and Kentucky all seem to be very similar. Missouri had a long slowly uptrend of both cases and lagging deaths over several months and just recently started the "spike" cases. By "spike" I mean a doubling of daily new cases in relatively short time spans, like 2 weeks.

ETA: Ditto Michigan and Wisconsin... they look like Indiana, not Ohio.

 

[dusty88]

Ok, this is where I would disagree... IF and ONLY IF we reached a point where hospitals were stretched beyond capacity by severe and critical COVID patients... no capacity for heart attacks, car accidents, etc. as well as "severe" but savable COVID patients dying from lack of oxygen tanks and simple steroids, etc. then THAT is a scenario that calls for another lock down.

Full on Northern Italy in late March with people dying in the streets.

I understand both of you believe that couldn't happen here... I hope you are right, but I'm seeing no evidence yet that it can't or won't.

Hopefully tapping the brakes, downshifting the phases, and people changing their infection control habits turns the current tide.

From what I'm seeing, there is no doubt we are headed there. Hospitalizations for Covid have quadrupled in 2 months in Indiana.

An ERdoc from IU health yesterday posted that their beds are full, and they are setting up tents but unsure how they will staff them.

My client who works at Riley Childrens hospital says they have 20-30 yr old patients because they had to take overflow from other hospitals.

My good friend who runs a suburban ICU says they show normal "bed" capacity because they expanded their ICU but already have twice the patients she can staff for. Staff is burnt out, having PTSD from what they dealt with in April, and had record calloff days this year. She's trying to hire travel nurses, but most are booked.

Meanwhile, out here on the streets cases are rising. Hospitalization typically occurs about 2 weeks after exposure (1 week to start getting sick and another week for those who get more seriously ill to know it). Hospitalizations typically last for weeks. Our hospitalizations will continue to go up until AFTER cases have turned down for about 2 weeks. And deaths lag hospitalizations by about 2 weeks. Deaths will go up (perhaps disproportionally) with this difficulty in having appropriate staff.

The US was driving the infection fatality rate below 0.5% . About 1 in 20 documented cases were dying, but there was evidence that was 1 in 200 actual cases, hence the IFR of 0.5% overall, and that I think included the surge in New York so likely the IFR was going below 0.5% in more recent months. However, in this current situation where staff are overwhelmed for weeks they can't keep up with appropriate critical care and fatality rate will turn back up.

And all this "fatality rate ain't so bad" talk ignores the chronic disease. People are missing weeks of work, and some are still sick months later. We'll see more of that also, the way the virus is running loose in Indiana right now.

The problem with lockdowns, regardless of our philosophical views or arguments on whether or not they are needed, is society isn't in the mood to cooperate with it. Americans have a bad sense of normalcy bias and don't have the patience for this.

I don't know that hardcore closures are a good choice anyway now that we understand the disease better. Surface transmission looks to be extremely rare and easily preventable, so doing every business by curbside (where possible) would be as good as closures. We know masking and ventilation help significantly. But there again the problem: still plenty of people won't put a mask on. And we don't necessarily have the abundance of quality masks to say something like "here wear one of these 3 types or put it over that unknown single layer cloth mask you have on". There is no good answer here. We've allowed cases to build up gradually the past 2 months and now we're going to reap the result.

Just as an example, 1 in 1000 people in the Dakotas have now died from Covid. That's 1 in 1000 population, not 1 in 1000 cases.

 

[jedi]

https://m.tiktok.com/v/689628338157...gn=client_share&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=sms


PA governor wants you to wear a mask while at home alone!

 

[Phase2]

I suppose the purpose of the study was to see if spread can be contained 100%. It could not and this is no surprise. I doubt the study has any wider application at all to less controlled environments beyond the conclusion that more regular testing rather than simply waiting for symptoms is the only way to get infectious people out of the pool sooner.

I get the notion that unless some measure is proven to absolute certainty to be 100% effective in stopping transmission, there are those who will report it as "it doesn't work". That's not the way the world works.

That point was that even with the most compliant population you can find (Marines in training), they still had no measurable positive effect on spread.

 

[drillsgt]

That point was that even with the most compliant population you can find (Marines in training), they still had no measurable positive effect on spread.

With all their mitigation they didn't do much better than similar aged college students with the exception of the Greek houses and that might not be a very significant difference:

At IU Bloomington the week of Nov. 8:

• The positivity rate among the 611 test results from communal living (Greek houses) was 5.9% (3.4% the week prior).
• The positivity rate among the 6,193 test results from residence halls was 1.4% (1.4% the week prior).
• The positivity rate among the 797 test results from Greek-affiliated students who don't live in their organization's house was 3.9% (1.2% the week prior).
• The positivity rate among the 2,717 test results from all other off-campus students was 1.7% (0.6% the week prior).

At IUPUI the week of Nov. 8:

• Eight positive cases were identified among the 285 test results from residence halls, for a positivity rate of 2.8% (0.8% the week prior).
• Thirteen positive cases were identified among the 1,003 test results from off-campus students, for a positivity rate of 1.3% (0.9% the week prior).

 

[rob63]

PA governor wants you to wear a mask while at home alone!

The guy is an utter idiot. My wife and I are about to move to PA to be near her family. We are supposed to have our final walk-through on our new house next Monday. Yesterday, the PA governor announced new travel restrictions which mandate that anyone entering the state has to have tested negative within the last 72 hours.

My reaction is to ignore him, however, my wife insists that we get tested just in case the hotel requires it or something. The only place we have been able to find locally that will do the test when you have no symptoms is the ER lab at the hospital.

Just think about that... because of the PA Governor's new orders, two people that have no symptoms and no reason to suspect they have been exposed to it are going to travel to the same place that the sick people go so that we can be tested just before we travel to PA. I am at a total loss how this possibly makes anyone safer, but at least the Governor can claim he did something.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

That point was that even with the most compliant population you can find (Marines in training), they still had no measurable positive effect on spread.

How do you figure that? Spread was 2% living, sleeping, eating and working together 24/7 while wearing masks all the time except when eating or sleeping.

Are you saying that the spread would be 2% in that scenario without any masks? (it is what you said, lol)

Where do you pull that from, because it definitely was NOT in that study... there was no non-mask wearing control group.

 

[drillsgt]

How do you figure that? Spread was 2% living, sleeping, eating and working together 24/7 while wearing masks all the time except when eating or sleeping.

Are you saying that the spread would be 2% in that scenario without any masks? (it is what you said, lol)

Where do you pull that from, because it definitely was NOT in that study... there was no non-mask wearing control group.

There was no control group so you can't really say it wouldn't happen lol.

 

[drillsgt]

The guy is an utter idiot. My wife and I are about to move to PA to be near her family. We are supposed to have our final walk-through on our new house next Monday. Yesterday, the PA governor announced new travel restrictions which mandate that anyone entering the state has to have tested negative within the last 72 hours.

My reaction is to ignore him, however, my wife insists that we get tested just in case the hotel requires it or something. The only place we have been able to find locally that will do the test when you have no symptoms is the ER lab at the hospital.

Just think about that... because of the PA Governor's new orders, two people that have no symptoms and no reason to suspect they have been exposed to it are going to travel to the same place that the sick people go so that we can be tested just before we travel to PA. I am at a total loss how this possibly makes anyone safer, but at least the Governor can claim he did something.

Sorry you have to move to a blue state.

 

[nonobaddog]

The guy is an utter idiot. My wife and I are about to move to PA to be near her family. We are supposed to have our final walk-through on our new house next Monday. Yesterday, the PA governor announced new travel restrictions which mandate that anyone entering the state has to have tested negative within the last 72 hours.

My reaction is to ignore him, however, my wife insists that we get tested just in case the hotel requires it or something. The only place we have been able to find locally that will do the test when you have no symptoms is the ER lab at the hospital.

Just think about that... because of the PA Governor's new orders, two people that have no symptoms and no reason to suspect they have been exposed to it are going to travel to the same place that the sick people go so that we can be tested just before we travel to PA. I am at a total loss how this possibly makes anyone safer, but at least the Governor can claim he did something.

Yup. By far the riskiest place I have been in the last several months was in the waiting room to get a mandatory test for the chinese virus prior to minor surgery. I was in there for about half an hour with a whole bunch of other people, too many to stay six feet apart even though I tried.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

With all their mitigation they didn't do much better than similar aged college students with the exception of the Greek houses and that might not be a very significant difference:

At IU Bloomington the week of Nov. 8:

• The positivity rate among the 611 test results from communal living (Greek houses) was 5.9% (3.4% the week prior).
• The positivity rate among the 6,193 test results from residence halls was 1.4% (1.4% the week prior).
• The positivity rate among the 797 test results from Greek-affiliated students who don't live in their organization's house was 3.9% (1.2% the week prior).
• The positivity rate among the 2,717 test results from all other off-campus students was 1.7% (0.6% the week prior).

At IUPUI the week of Nov. 8:

• Eight positive cases were identified among the 285 test results from residence halls, for a positivity rate of 2.8% (0.8% the week prior).
• Thirteen positive cases were identified among the 1,003 test results from off-campus students, for a positivity rate of 1.3% (0.9% the week prior).

Navy Times: 20 percent of Theodore Roosevelt crew test positive for COVID-19
https://www.navytimes.com/2020/04/2...re-roosevelt-crew-test-positive-for-covid-19/

A bit closer to the congregate living arrangements for Marines in training than college individual or at most 2-to-a-room living.

And, can the Marines in training do that hybrid training thing, you know where they do 80% online only from the comfy cozy of their individual rooms, you know like the IU kids are doing?

 

[ghuns]

...And, can the Marines in training do that hybrid training thing, you know where they do 80% online only from the comfy cozy of their individual rooms, you know like the IU kids are doing?

More than you'd think.

My SIL just completed his USMC sergeants course 100% online.

 

[ghuns]

To my knowledge, this is the first randomized controlled trial to ascertain the effectiveness of paper/cloth mask wearing...


Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers


I'm a little shocked it managed to get published...

Our results suggest that the recommendation to wear a surgical mask when outside the home among others did not reduce, at conventional levels of statistical significance, the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in mask wearers in a setting where social distancing and other public health measures were in effect...

Who's gonna tell "Karen"?

 

[nonobaddog]

What a great idea. Take a bunch of masks that aren't designed to do squat against viruses and run a big study to see if they do squat against viruses.

 

[dusty88]

To my knowledge, this is the first randomized controlled trial to ascertain the effectiveness of paper/cloth mask wearing...


Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers


I'm a little shocked it managed to get published...



Who's gonna tell "Karen"?

It's certainly fun to do a study like that as a starting point and to add to the information but it doesn't conclude that masks don't help.

One key Point here is that there was low Community use of masks. I think we already know the protection level of a surgical mask is pretty low if the infected person is not wearing a mask

 

[SheepDog4Life]

First, you skipped right over first sentence of the paragraph prior to the partial paragraph you quoted, lol:

The most important limitation is that the findings are inconclusive, with CIs compatible with a 46% decrease to a 23% increase in infection.

And, gee, very convenient at where you "cut off" the paragraph you did quote... the study was inconclusive:

Our results suggest that the recommendation to wear a surgical mask when outside the home among others did not reduce, at conventional levels of statistical significance, the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in mask wearers in a setting where social distancing and other public health measures were in effect, mask recommendations were not among those measures, and community use of masks was uncommon. Yet, the findings were inconclusive and cannot definitively exclude a 46% reduction to a 23% increase in infection of mask wearers in such a setting. It is important to emphasize that this trial did not address the effects of masks as source control or as protection in settings where social distancing and other public health measures are not in effect.

In context, you removed your quote right out of the middle of an "it's inconclusive" sandwich...

Anyhow, interesting study that was well designed and they had adequate numbers of participants to have conclusive findings, but as they indicate above, they were not able to conclude yeah or nay... why is that? The authors point out one of the possible reasons, adherence, only 46% of the mask group actually wore the mask as recommended.

 

[BugI02]

How do you figure that? Spread was 2% living, sleeping, eating and working together 24/7 while wearing masks all the time except when eating or sleeping.

Are you saying that the spread would be 2% in that scenario without any masks? (it is what you said, lol)

Where do you pull that from, because it definitely was NOT in that study... there was no non-mask wearing control group.

I think the point is that even with a stringency of control of every aspect of their lives unimaginable in America at large, and with continuous testing whether symptomatic or not and the prompt removal of those that test positive, the baseline transmission rate was still 2%. Lockdowns and mask mandates are unlikely to do much at all to flatten transmission rates in the wider world, but they could certainly tank the nascent recovery. That is one of the 'risks' that should be under consideration in 'risk' assessment

Further, it should be recognized that the populace's willingness to adhere to the progressively more unhinged restrictions being called for is directly related to the success of prior instances and the general belief that their proponents have any idea of what they're talking about. The whole thing is bearing more than a passing resemblance to the apologia for communism, that the system isn't inherently flawed, it is just that no one ever does it right. Can you conclusively say, with absolute certainty, that a full lockdown will create a useful change in our situation that will be worth the economic destruction?

To my mind, limit's need to be set on how far we're willing to go, and beyond that es lo que es

 

[drillsgt]

First, you skipped right over first sentence of the paragraph prior to the partial paragraph you quoted, lol:



And, gee, very convenient at where you "cut off" the paragraph you did quote... the study was inconclusive:



In context, you removed your quote right out of the middle of an "it's inconclusive" sandwich...

Anyhow, interesting study that was well designed and they had adequate numbers of participants to have conclusive findings, but as they indicate above, they were not able to conclude yeah or nay... why is that? The authors point out one of the possible reasons, adherence, only 46% of the mask group actually wore the mask as recommended.

That's called reality, it's why mask mandates are just feel good orders so politicians feel like they are 'doing something' lol.

 

[BugI02]

What a great idea. Take a bunch of masks that aren't designed to do squat against viruses and run a big study to see if they do squat against viruses.

Is that not the cohort of possible masks that we are being urged and/or required to wear? Has not the lack of standards in construction or materials been criticized regularly?

And if you're saying we should be mandated to wear N95s, do you want a run on N95s? Because that's how you get a run on N95s and Fauci saying don't buy them they won't help not because they don't work but because they're aren't enough to go around