Beer Virus V

[IndyDave1776]

Got me a great big ol' brand new turkey injector yesterday at Rural King.
Hmm, now I gotta decide on a favor!

Under the circumstances, someone else cooking the bird for you would seem to be the perfect favor!

 

[JCSR]

I hate being the one to tell you but you know the experts have been right so far ..........


Biden's covid expert warns healthcare systems will collapse and patients will die in waiting rooms if trends continue - as new model suggests 150,000 more people could die before his inauguration

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8951005/Before-Joe-Bidens-inauguration-70-000-people-die-COVID-19.html

 

[dusty88]

I hate being the one to tell you but you know the experts have been right so far ..........


Biden's covid expert warns healthcare systems will collapse and patients will die in waiting rooms if trends continue -

I think Osterholm, which is who you are talking about here, has been right about the pandemic since it began. I'd want to see his comment in context though not just a partial quote.

as new model suggests 150,000 more people could die before his inauguration

different person doing the modeling. Models are meant for learning and shifting, not meant for precise predictions

 

[BugI02]

I think Osterholm, which is who you are talking about here, has been right about the pandemic since it began. I'd want to see his comment in context though not just a partial quote.



[/FONT]different person doing the modeling. Models are meant for learning and shifting, not meant for precise predictions

I disagree. A model, whether epidemiological of related to climate, should first and foremost be used to make short term predictions in order to verify it is an accurate model. If not, it should be reformulated or discarded. To use an unverified construct to set policy is the height of foolishness, and coincidently exactly the heights we find ourselves occupying

I have yet to see the model that says another lockdown will restart the economy as Biden says. I haven't even seen a model that tries to account for anything real world concerns other than reducing cases to a minimum, nor have i seen a model make any sort of empirically verified prediction about what the results of the first lockdown would be or what the second will accomplish. Simply saying 'It will reduce the number of cases' lacks useful specificity and sets the bar for accuracy unacceptably low

 

[nonobaddog]

I disagree. A model, whether epidemiological of related to climate, should first and foremost be used to make short term predictions in order to verify it is an accurate model. If not, it should be reformulated or discarded. To use an unverified construct to set policy is the height of foolishness, and coincidently exactly the heights we find ourselves occupying

I have yet to see the model that says another lockdown will restart the economy as Biden says. I haven't even seen a model that tries to account for anything real world concerns other than reducing cases to a minimum, nor have i seen a model make any sort of empirically verified prediction about what the results of the first lockdown would be or what the second will accomplish. Simply saying 'It will reduce the number of cases' lacks useful specificity and sets the bar for accuracy unacceptably low

Exactly. If a model can not be used to predict short term trends and only applies to past history it is basically useless. We have real data for that (sort of).

 

[foszoe]

I think Osterholm, which is who you are talking about here, has been right about the pandemic since it began. I'd want to see his comment in context though not just a partial quote.



[/FONT]different person doing the modeling. Models are meant for learning and shifting, not meant for precise predictions

Learning and shifting what if not predictions though? I would think without predictions its really just a historical study

 

[IndyBeerman]

I hate being the one to tell you but you know the experts have been right so far ..........


Biden's covid expert warns healthcare systems will collapse and patients will die in waiting rooms if trends continue - as new model suggests 150,000 more people could die before his inauguration

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8951005/Before-Joe-Bidens-inauguration-70-000-people-die-COVID-19.html

Ya, like it's bad enough we can't honest reporting from US based MSM, let's believe from the other side of the pond.

 

[dusty88]

Learning and shifting what if not predictions though? I would think without predictions its really just a historical study

Well loosely predict then improve upon predictions. This is a brand new disease, and in a country that hasn't had a pandemic as serious for 100 years, when life was completely different.

There is another model that's been more accurate than IHME, but the media doesn't cite it often. I'm trying to remember the name... but in any case a model is going to change when behavior changes or when we learn more about what works (or doesn't).

 

[foszoe]

Well loosely predict then improve upon predictions. This is a brand new disease, and in a country that hasn't had a pandemic as serious for 100 years, when life was completely different.

There is another model that's been more accurate than IHME, but the media doesn't cite it often. I'm trying to remember the name... but in any case a model is going to change when behavior changes or when we learn more about what works (or doesn't).

With a novel disease, yeah predictive models would use other similar diseases as a starting point and iterate around new data. Thats why, ignoring the politics surrounding Covid, I find it perplexing that people hold Fauci to a certain standard regarding masks. Models should evolve and if a position on preventative measures or treatment changes its treated as a change in a political stance. Especially by those who claim to understand modeling

 

[IndyDave1776]

Given that Holcomb is a chamber of commerce mercenary, I find plenty of explanation for his behavior on this page taken from the state itself:

https://iedc.in.gov/resources/covid-19-updates-resources/indiana-businesses-response

Creating a demand for product is far from his greatest malfeasance.

 

[NKBJ]

I'm curious as to why the double extra scary mutant bank bug isn't being played up here in America yet. Maybe the story is just being held in reserve for impact, for the next moves? I don't know, except I know I'm fed up with being played.

 

[hANNAbONE]

How 'bout an INGO Neil Diamond virtual karoke song, COVID-style?
[video=youtube_share;qxnETrhOIAE]http://youtu.be/qxnETrhOIAE[/video]

Neil Diamond - the Rick Astley of the 1970's : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ&list=PLahKLy8pQdCM0SiXNn3EfGIXX19QGzUG3




Oh and....Melvin IPA, Truth IPA, Boulevard Double Wide, Des Moines IPA

 

[nonobaddog]

I'm still a little leery of the moderna vaccine at this point because of fauci's involvement in the development and ownership of the vaccine. He squandered any trust in him by spewing crap so I'll wait until any results are verified by independent means or actual population experience.

 

[BugI02]

What bothers me is the 'models' do not even seem to have terms or variables related to economic harm, they are solely focused on keeping cases to a minimum but with no benchmarks for accuracy or relevance. Thus we arrive at the masking debate, where there is evidence that masks might be somewhat effective but no benchmarks and no connection to the temporal component. If a universal mask mandate happens to coincide with the inevitable slowing of cases after a spike, it will not be called upon to demonstrate any sort of relevance to timing or required to predict what the rates of amelioration will look like, it will just be accorded any positive effects just because of proximity

And without any concurrent modeling of economic effects, if there is a desire to do the most good at reducing transmission while concurrently minimizing economic disruption, there is no unified data and no tools

Optimizing one variable and ignoring all others is what lets you wind up with an F106 when the enemy is no longer even relying on bombers to deliver its weapons

 

[printcraft]

https://twitter.com/teddyspeedboat/status/1306067145529360384

 

[actaeon277]

Christmas is cancelled.



[video=youtube;qTTvpxYIJ54]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTTvpxYIJ54[/video]

 

[foszoe]

What about Hannukah and Kwanza?

Christmas is cancelled.



[video=youtube;qTTvpxYIJ54]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTTvpxYIJ54[/video]

 

[Phase2]

What about Hannukah and Kwanza?

Oh, you won't get Covid at Kwanza or Eid gatherings. They are exempt.

Even if you wouldn't get it at Hannukah, Cuomo or DeBlasio would lock you up for trying.

 

[printcraft]

Christmas is cancelled.



[video=youtube;qTTvpxYIJ54]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTTvpxYIJ54[/video]

Called it weeks ago.

 

[nonobaddog]

Christmas is cancelled.



[video=youtube;qTTvpxYIJ54]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTTvpxYIJ54[/video]

Over 23 minutes to say how much this sucketh. Too long for me.