AR Prices - 6 weeks of data

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  • valmoth

    Plinker
    Rating - 100%
    3   0   0
    Apr 29, 2012
    93
    6
    Indianapolis
    This is the third update on AR price tracking.

    On December 28th I decided to track the final sales price of ARs to determine when we may peak on the current crazy price situation. I tagged bids on GB for a standard Bushmaster 16" E2S NIB-- no used guns, no special add-ons like optics, just a vanilla .223 that would typically retail prior to the crisis at something under $1000.

    I took an average of those bids on days where I was able to find at least six representative transactions that closed for this rifle. I did not include any data where the final bid was under the reserve, nor did I include any data from sellers who did not have at least one point of feedback.

    The averages over the last six weeks are as follows:

    avgpricefeb10_zps1b5a835b.jpg


    As you can see, the prices peaked on December 29th, dipped and then another local high point on January 14th, the day before the 23 presidential executive orders were announced.

    Prices have been decreasing since that time, and have been bouncing between $1200 and $1300 over the past week.

    The general trend has been down.

    For those interested, the lowest sales price in the past six weeks was $975, and the highest was $2,275.
     

    in625shooter

    Master
    Rating - 0%
    0   0   0
    Mar 21, 2008
    2,136
    48
    I thought it was funny (or irritating however you wanted to look at it) That at a gunshow this weekend the AR's were coming down in price (1300 compared to 1900 3 weeks ago) but the 22LR was still $50-$60 a brick!:dunno:
     

    Colts

    Sharpshooter
    Rating - 0%
    0   0   0
    Aug 25, 2011
    432
    18
    Roundabout Circle City
    I thought it was funny (or irritating however you wanted to look at it) That at a gunshow this weekend the AR's were coming down in price (1300 compared to 1900 3 weeks ago) but the 22LR was still $50-$60 a brick!:dunno:

    Yes, I couldn't find any 9mm at any price at four stops this weekend.

    Hopefully this is a sign that ammo will be able to be found and at reasonable prices in the near future (I am tired of looking into empty cases/shelves with 3 or 4 other guys at time).

    When the range opens in 4-6 weeks, I only have a few weeks of supply.:(
     

    tgmorris99

    Marksman
    Rating - 100%
    6   0   0
    Jun 17, 2011
    263
    18
    Westfield
    This is indeed interesting. It would also be good to contrast it with a similar data point from six month to a year ago for similar AR's to see how much further there is to go.
     
    Rating - 100%
    17   0   0
    Feb 16, 2010
    1,506
    38
    Sweet, now if only people would stop flooding the classifieds with 3k guns that are only worth 1k(or looking at the data 1.3k...).
     

    wrench01

    Plinker
    Rating - 0%
    0   0   0
    Nov 9, 2012
    15
    1
    North central indiana
    Got my very first AR one week before the Connecticut deal. Paid $730 for a S&W mp15, thought that was $100 to much at the time. Don't regret it a bit, fun gun to shoot. Also got lucky on finding plenty of ammo.
     

    SIGnature45

    Plinker
    Rating - 100%
    2   0   0
    Jan 22, 2013
    137
    16
    South Bend
    Thanks for the data! Very cool indeed. I would love to see a similar graph of FN mags starting last year on a similar trend. They used to be just a couple bucks. I'm sure they were upwards of 60 bucks a piece at some point and probably following a similar type of trend now.
     
    Rating - 100%
    6   0   0
    Jan 21, 2013
    4,905
    63
    Lawrence County
    I know Rock River usually sells a little higher than say an Oly., buddy of mine picked up a standard RRA Carbine, no frills, last week for $1500 in the Loogootee area. I think he bought it from a dealer, but not from the store...not sure the details. I just thought even for a RRA that was still a little high.
     

    SIGFAN

    Plinker
    Rating - 0%
    0   0   0
    Feb 10, 2013
    12
    1
    Thanks for the great visual. I wish I knew if they were going to continue downward or move back up?
     

    Sajer

    Marksman
    Rating - 0%
    0   0   0
    Apr 23, 2009
    147
    16
    Base DPMS no rear sight - $1199
    DPMS Sport - $1099
    Sig M400 various - $1799 to 2499
    CORE 15 Scout with Magpul MBUS and 4 pmags - $1399

    People are still buying, but its is slowing
     

    braggracing

    Plinker
    Rating - 0%
    0   0   0
    Feb 10, 2013
    64
    6
    Grant County
    Going down a little bit at the Muncie and Fort Wayne Gun shows this weekend but still ridiculous. Can get M&Ps and Bushmasters between 1100 and 1400 in our local shops. 65$ for 550 yellowjacket 22's in Fort Wayne today and I watched them sell.
     
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