3 G.O.P.Candidates lead Ellisworth to replace Evan Bayh

[melensdad]

Good news and Bad news here. This was BEFORE the health care vote, so it is subject to change, but likely any change would favor the GOP.

The bad news is that Dan Coats seems to be running VERY SLIGHTLY stronger than either of the two PRO-GUN G.O.P. candidates. Rasmussen has been among the most accurate of the polling services for political races. They tend to look at STRONGLY FAVOR and STRONGLY OPPOSE as better long term indicators than just those people who FAVOR or OPPOSE because the folks in the "STRONGLY" categories tend to not be swayed away from their positions. The folks in the middle are subject to change. Dan Coats, no friend of gun owners, has the highest "STRONGLY FAVORABLE" rating of any of the GOP candidates.

Marlin Stutzman is the weakest GOP candidate and the ONLY one of the 3, who, if you move the "undecided voters" over to Ellisworth's side, would lose the November election.

Election 2010: Indiana Senate
Indiana Senate: Ellsworth Trails GOP Hopefuls – Before Health Care Vote
Tuesday, March 23, 2010 Email to a Friend ShareThis
Election 2010: Indiana Senate - Rasmussen Reports™

Two of the three top Republican hopefuls for the U.S. Senate in Indiana continue to hold double-digit leads over Democratic Congressman Brad Ellsworth. Ellsworth supported President Obama’s health care plan in a state where opposition to the legislation is higher than it is nationally.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds former Congressman John Hostettler with a 50% to 32% lead over Ellsworth, a current House member who voted with most other Democrats on Sunday to pass the health care plan. The survey was taken last Wednesday and Thursday nights. Fifteen percent (15%) remain undecided in that match-up.

Ex-Senator Dan Coats now posts a 49% to 34% lead over Ellsworth, with 12% undecided.

Ellsworth runs best against the third GOP contender, freshman State Senator Marlin Stutzman. In that match-up, Stutzman leads by just seven points, 41% to 34%. Eighteen percent (18%) are undecided.
In all three match-ups, roughly five percent (5%) of Indiana voters prefer some other candidate. All three Republicans held a lead last month just after incumbent Democratic Senator Evan Bayh’s surprise announcement that he was not seeking reelection this year.

Republicans will pick their Senate nominee in a May 4 primary. Ellsworth faces no major challengers for the Democratic nomination at this time.

Unless there is a major shift if perception of the health care plan, Ellsworth may face a big challenge convincing voters in the state why he voted for the President’s plan. Just 35% of Indiana voters favor the plan proposed by the president and congressional Democrats, while 63% oppose it. This is well above the level of opposition found nationally. These findings include 21% who Strongly Favor the plan and 54% who Strongly Oppose it.

When it comes to health care decisions, 55% fear the federal government more than private insurance companies. Thirty-five percent (35%) fear private insurers more.

Thirty percent (30%) of voters in Indiana rate the president’s handling of health care reform as good or excellent, but 57% think he’s done a poor job.

Sixty-two percent (62%) say a better strategy for health care reform is passing smaller bills that address individual problems rather than a comprehensive bill like the one passed by the Senate and the House. Only 24% think a comprehensive bill is better.

Fifty percent (50%) have a favorable opinion of the Tea Party movement, while just 29% view that movement unfavorably. Yet only 20% of Indiana voters say they are part of the Tea Party movement.

Obama was the surprise winner of Indiana in the 2008 election, beating John McCain by a scant 50% to 49%. But just 39% of voters in the state now approve of the job he is doing as president, with 23% who Strongly Approve. Sixty percent (60%) disapprove of his job performance, including 47% who Strongly Disapprove. This is roughly in keeping with Obama’s job approval ratings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Fifteen percent (15%) of Indiana voters have a very favorable opinion of Ellsworth, while 14% view him very unfavorably.

Hostettler is viewed very favorably by 13% and very unfavorably by 10%.

For Coats, who served as a senator from Indiana from 1989 to 1999, very favorables are 15% and very unfavorables 11%.

Six percent (6%) have a very favorable view of Stutzman, while eight percent (8%) regard him very unfavorably.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

 

[CarmelHP]

This is a good reason to send John Hostettler up against Ellsworth.

 

[Prometheus]

Coats sucks. Stutzman or Hostettler.

 

[melensdad]

This is a good reason to send John Hostettler up against Ellsworth.

I agree. Personally I prefer Marlin Stutzman, but I honestly think that Hostettler has the best chance of beating Ellsworth AND Dan Coats.

The reality is we have 2 election battles and Dan Coats has the GOP machine behind him, he's no friend of gun owners. We have to beat him before we go up against Ellisworth. Hostettler probably has the best chance of beating Dan Coats and clearly the polls show he can beat Ellisworth.

The biggest problem we gun owners have is that we will be dividing up our votes, some for Stutzman, some for Benhey (sp?) and some for Hostettler. I'm strongly leaning toward giving my vote to Hostettler simply because he is the strongest of the candidates against Coats. And we HAVE to beat Coats!!!

 

[dburkhead]

Why only Coats, Stutzman, and Hostettler?

Has Behney dropped out, or is he considered to have no chance?

 

[CarmelHP]

Why only Coats, Stutzman, and Hostettler?

Has Behney dropped out, or is he considered to have no chance?

Not even on the radar, not getting any traction.

 

[melensdad]

Why only Coats, Stutzman, and Hostettler?

Has Behney dropped out, or is he considered to have no chance?

The national polling companies typically only poll those candidates that have a significant level of support. Behney simply doesn't even show up as the proverbial 'blip on a radar' in the polls. Talk to most voters and they've never even heard of him.

A while back I did see one poll, early on, that had him listed, he didn't seem to have any support at all. That was back before Bayh resigned.

So we have to deal with political reality.

Reality #1: Coats has the backing of the GOP insiders
Reality #2: Coats is no friend of gun owners
Reality #3: Hostettler has a better chance beating Ellisworth than Stutzman and just as good as Coats
Reality #4: We need to beat Coats before we can beat Ellisworth
Reality #5: Hostettler seems to be the one who can stand up against Coats in the primary and defeat him so if we want to beat Coats, we need to pick someone to support and rally behind him, if we don't we will divide our votes and cancel each other out.

Them's the facts jack, just sayin it like it is.

 

[Prometheus]

I need to see how big of a difference there is between Stuzman and Hostettler before I decide.

I can guarantee a third party vote if coats gets the nomination. No way I'd vote for him. Ever.

 

[pudly]

I need to see how big of a difference there is between Stuzman and Hostettler before I decide.

I can guarantee a third party vote if coats gets the nomination. No way I'd vote for him. Ever.

Understandable, but being discouraged from voting for imperfect conservatives over true liberals is what got the health care takeover passed. Better to oppose during the primaries and not during the main election.

 

[Joe Williams]

Understandable, but being discouraged from voting for imperfect conservatives over true liberals is what got the health care takeover passed. Better to oppose during the primaries and not during the main election.

I will not vote for another RINO. Never again. Nor will I vote for an anti-gun candidate. Ever.

Republicans like Coats helped lead us to where it was possible for the Dems to get such large majorities in the legislature. They are as much to blame as the Soviets in the Dem Party. If the Republican machine cannot get that message, and continues to turn their backs on conservatives, they can descend into irrelevancy. Crap on them, crap on their catering to liberals, crap on their failure to adhere to Republican ideals. Their failures are responsible for the fact that we are probably headed for war, and those of us who voted for RINOs simply because they were "better" than the even further left Democrats share that blame. The Party must respond to it's base, or be rejected.

If Coats is the nominee, I'm going to write my son in, and keep stockpiling. I am dead serious. I will do what I can to keep Coats from being the nominee, but the Republican Party has become as deaf to it's people as the rest of D.C.

 

[evansvillethompsongunner]

I need to see how big of a difference there is between Stuzman and Hostettler before I decide.

I can guarantee a third party vote if coats gets the nomination. No way I'd vote for him. Ever.

Hostettler once caught flak for almost carrying onto a plane. Didn't really apologize, IIRC, just said that it was a mistake. But he definitely carries.

...and here's a link:
Congressman Hostettler Cited For Carrying Gun In Airport - 14 News, The Tri-State's News and Weather Leader-

Conservative fiscally and socially.

He'll sweep this and he deserves it.
Stutzman is also good, but doesn't have the name recognition, as I've said ad nauseam for the past month or two.

 

[CarmelHP]

John Hostettler is no RINO, in fact, he's usually criticized by press and "moderates" for being "too pro-gun" and "too anti-big government."

 

[Kirk Freeman]

So, has everyone sent in money for Hostettler?

I believe the American phrase is "put up or shut up".

The notion of having Lugar, er, I mean Coats become Senator is disconcerting to say the least.

 

[evansvillethompsongunner]

So, has everyone sent in money for Hostettler?

I believe the American phrase is "put up or shut up".

The notion of having Lugar, er, I mean Coats become Senator is disconcerting to say the least.

Fifty with more to come when I can spare it.

 

[pudly]

I will not vote for another RINO. Never again. Nor will I vote for an anti-gun candidate. Ever.

If Coats is the nominee, I'm going to write my son in, and keep stockpiling. I am dead serious. I will do what I can to keep Coats from being the nominee, but the Republican Party has become as deaf to it's people as the rest of D.C.

Again, I will say that I understand your feelings, but respectfully disagree. Even RINOs like McCain and Luger voted against the healthcare takeover. Try to get the best person into the right position during the primaries. I used to ignore primaries, but now understand how important they are.

If you don't get the best choice during the primaries, then a vote for the lesser of two evils is your best option. And as a pro-2A person, I will even vote for an anti in that situation. You can vote for a 3rd party as a protest, but if the greater evil then wins, you are now part of the reason why.

If you insist on all-or-nothing, then you will get nothing more often than if you are more flexible. Getting all is rare.

So, has everyone sent in money for Hostettler?

I believe the American phrase is "put up or shut up".

The notion of having Lugar, er, I mean Coats become Senator is disconcerting to say the least.

Yes and I will be contacting his org to see if I can volunteer as well. I like Behney and Stutzman as well, but think he has the best chance to get past Coats.

I encourage Jim and others to support the candidate of their choice as well. If you really believe this Senate seat and the future of America is important, please do something now.

 

[dburkhead]

Fifty with more to come when I can spare it.

Plus a note via the "volunteer" link: "What do you need done?"

 

[akaindy]

Quick question, I know this thread is about replacing Bayh which I'm all for but does anyone know if there is anyone running against Carson? I thought we were done with Carson when old lady Carson finally passed on but we're still stuck with another Carson and I've voted against Carson every election.

 

[dburkhead]

Quick question, I know this thread is about replacing Bayh which I'm all for but does anyone know if there is anyone running against Carson? I thought we were done with Carson when old lady Carson finally passed on but we're still stuck with another Carson and I've voted against Carson every election.

Carlos May is running against Carson.

His web page is:
Carlos May for Congress

He's on Facebook (among other places) and does answer questions and the like. I've had a couple of nice conversations with him there including in this bit:

Welcome to Facebook | Facebook

He's said he's pro-gun and he has answered in the affirmative to my "will you vote for, or introduce if no one else will, legislation to repeal this so-called health care law".

I'm hoping for better than the disaster of 2008.

That's not asking for much.

 

[Mokkie]

If Hostettler is the man I will set this one out. Another one that speaks with forked tongue. And he will not get my or my wifes vote.

 

[Truckerman79]

I've made up my mind. Stutzman gets my vote.