Yes, lots of FTF in 10/22's, Ruger MkIII's and Marlin model 60's. The problems seemed to be associated with hot guns, hot weather and the waxy bullet lube used by Remington. Appleseeds and steel matches were disrupted by trying to get Thunderbolts to work in our guns.
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Your theory looks sound.
You almost certainly wouldn't do well with any lead bullet with wax lube out of most semi-autos, so that means Winchester Wildcat, CCI Standard Velocity, and probably just about all target ammo, since all of that I've ever seen was lead rather than plated bullets.
Hey, that's just another reason that I'm glad I didn't join the crowd and get a 10/22.