2016 Electoral College polling thread

[T.Lex]

That's "polling" people, not "trolling."

I believe this perspective on the election is sufficiently specific to justify its own thread. But, of course, if a moderator disagrees, feel free to lump it in with the primary election thread. Wait. Not the "primary election" thread. The primaries are over.

Anyway, new polling from NC takes some of the shine away from Trump's success in OH and FL. Civitas has NC as a tie. That's 15 EC delegates Trump can't afford to lose.

It also illustrates the problems with winning a general election. Changing things up to get one area can jeopardize a different area.

Trump's schedule is more robust now: NH, DC (probably just to raise money), NY (same), FL, TX, and CO.

Pence in NY and FL.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Just read both Sanders and Warren are headed to Ohio to help Clinton's case there.

 

[nate77]

Just read both Sanders and Warren are headed to Ohio to help Clinton's case there.

I don't see how east coast ultra libs will play well with Ohio's midwest values.

 

[T.Lex]

New IA poll has Trump +8. That's really good for him.

Alas, he's still -3 in VA.

BUT, it basically brings him within an IN of getting >270, if these results stand.

And, if he can get NV, then 269 is still an option.

 

[Twangbanger]

...

Alas, he's still -3 in VA.



...

I'd have thought the Kaine veep pick (plus all those Federal workers) would at least get her out of the margin of error.

If Ohio is to be believed (and she's not just triaging my Buckeye state), that sure puts some pressure on FL for her.

 

[T.Lex]

I'd have thought the Kaine veep pick (plus all those Federal workers) would at least get her out of the margin of error.

If Ohio is to be believed (and she's not just triaging my Buckeye state), that sure puts some pressure on FL for her.

She can afford to lose OH and FL and still be in good shape.

But, losing PA or VA (or WI for a host of reason) would probably shake the foundation.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Princeton Survey Research
likely voters Virginia

Clinton 40%
Trump 37
Johnson 8
McMullin 3
Stein 1

https://www.umw.edu/news/wp-content.../UMW-VA-Survey-2016_First-Release-Topline.pdf

Edit:

Suffolk Ohio poll (change from two months ago):

Trump 42 (+3)
Hillary 39 (-4)
Johnson 4 (-1)
Stein 1 (same)

 

[jamil]

I don't see how east coast ultra libs will play well with Ohio's midwest values.

Cleveland. Columbus. Cincinnati. Dayton. They won't be campaigning in Van Wert. They'll be preaching to a friendlier choir.

 

[jamil]

That's "polling" people, not "trolling."

I believe this perspective on the election is sufficiently specific to justify its own thread. But, of course, if a moderator disagrees, feel free to lump it in with the primary election thread. Wait. Not the "primary election" thread. The primaries are over.

Anyway, new polling from NC takes some of the shine away from Trump's success in OH and FL. Civitas has NC as a tie. That's 15 EC delegates Trump can't afford to lose.

It also illustrates the problems with winning a general election. Changing things up to get one area can jeopardize a different area.

Trump's schedule is more robust now: NH, DC (probably just to raise money), NY (same), FL, TX, and CO.

Pence in NY and FL.

I was hoping this would be a poll thread for INGO to vote on and discuss the Electoral College and how ****ty it is. Should have known it would be about your RCP analysis toy.

 

[T.Lex]

I was hoping this would be a poll thread for INGO to vote on and discuss the Electoral College and how ****ty it is. Should have known it would be about your RCP analysis toy.

hahaha

I *totally* almost included a reference to ranked-voting windmills, but figured it would be too obscure.

But hey, I'm open to an assessment of whether the EC still makes sense. In a different thread.

We have now is what we will have in November.

 

[Twangbanger]

Cleveland. Columbus. Cincinnati. Dayton. They won't be campaigning in Van Wert. They'll be preaching to a friendlier choir.

Wtf, no Oberlin, Athens, or my perennial favorite Yellow Springs - whose Antioch pedagogues gave America its first set of campus sexual conduct codes, in 1990, when Lena Dunham was still barely a sperm ("May I touch your breast? Having done that, may I now, furthermore, massage your clitoris?"). Surely you have not forgotten...nobody does "campus strange" like spoiled rich Buckeye children do "campus strange."

 

[AtTheMurph]

I don't believe these polls anymore than I believed the pre-Brexit polls.

 

[jamil]

Wtf, no Oberlin, Athens, or my perennial favorite Yellow Springs - whose Antioch pedagogues gave America its first set of campus sexual conduct codes, in 1990, when Lena Dunham was still barely a sperm ("May I touch your breast? Having done that, may I now, furthermore, massage your clitoris?"). Surely you have not forgotten...nobody does "campus strange" like spoiled rich Buckeye children do "campus strange."

Okay. Point taken.

 

[MCgrease08]

Why the Whole Trump-Clinton Election Could Probably Just Be Held in Pennsylvania - NYTimes.com

It has been the state to put Hillary Clinton over 270 electoral votes, should she win all of the other more likely states for her. Conversely, it’s also the state that would put Trump over the hump, if he wins all of the states that are more likely for him.

Every day, I run 100,000 simulations of the election. I use the probability of each state going for Clinton or Trump, then I mix that with a correlation matrix that defines the relationships between the states. And every day since late July, Pennsylvania has been the state that most frequently is won by the candidate who wins the election. Currently, there are just 6 percent of scenarios where Clinton wins Pennsylvania but loses the election, and just 3 percent of scenarios where Clinton loses Pennsylvania and wins the election.

 

[hoosierdoc]

I don't see how east coast ultra libs will play well with Ohio's midwest values.

Cincinnati, Toledo, Cleveland, Columbus.

what makes you think midwest values are in the major population centers?

 

[miguel]

It would be funny if state legislatures appointed Electors this time around. That would make for some must see TV!

At least we'd know there weren't any dead...well, physically at least...or illegals voting in the election.

 

[MohawkSlim]

I have to laugh at folks who talk about their vote counting in the general election.

 

[Restroyer]

Cincinnati, Toledo, Cleveland, Columbus.

what makes you think midwest values are in the major population centers?

You are correct. Also, don't forget Dayton. I build in all 5 cities. Columbus is the least liberal of the 5. Dayton is the most liberal. If I told you the bid processes of Dayton, Cincinnati, & Toledo for public projects - it would make people's heads spin. All 3 have minority "pass throughs" where to meet the Minority % required you have to use a company from their city "lists". Many of these companies are not real subcontractors but politically attached people of color. They will tell you to use whatever subcontractor you normally would use but run that work under the minority "company" on the the city's list. That "company" does none of the work but charges anywhere from 15% to 30% upcharge for them allowing you to use their minority (MBE) status so that you meet the city's goals (i.e.: requirements). Keep in mind that these projects I am talking about are HUD type projects funded by tax dollars so this "pass through" system that Dayton, Toledo, & Cincinnati utilize is an abuse of tax dollars. Just because Ohio is in the midwest does not mean the major cities have midwestern values. These cities love the liberal Democrats and all the hand outs they bring with them.

 

[T.Lex]

Drudge claims Reuters is calling Trump as "catching" Clinton in the EC. The actual story has her ahead by at least 18 EC delegates. That's still losing. Winning FL is good, but can't be the only goal.

So, Drudge really seems to have fallen to propaganda level, which is disappointing.

And, Trump still has alot of work to do.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Poll: Clinton, Trump tied across 13 swing states | TheHill