The 2016 General Election Thread

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    ArcadiaGP

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    Here we are.

    Presumptive Republican Nominee: Donald Trump
    Presumptive Democrat Nominee: Hillary Clinton
    Libertarian Nominee: Gary Johnson

    Thread will be updated with polling data, results, and relevant news articles.
     

    T.Lex

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    I think the Republican Veep choice should be Andrew Card.

    The ticket would be the Trump/Card.

    :D
     

    ArcadiaGP

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    T.Lex

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    Trump... spades... I could see that getting really awkward, really quick.
     

    ArcadiaGP

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    ABC has a new electoral map out today

    Toss-up: IA, FL, NC, NH, OH, VA
    Lean D: CO, MI, NV, PA, WI
    Lean R: GA

    Ckb-LqEUoAAwWTJ.jpg:large
     

    T.Lex

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    Mmmhhhr?

    In other news:
    Florida primary-~1.7M Dem votes (HRC 1.097M); ~2.3M Republican votes (Trump 1.077M). That could be really close.
    Ohio primary - ~1.2M Dem votes (HRC 680k); ~2M Republican votes (Trump got 727k, and came in 2nd). Seem to me that should go Leans Trump.

    I also see NY as more of a tossup, but only if Bernie fans actively switch to Trump there.
     

    Twangbanger

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    Love it.

    After Hillary gets her Convention Bump, she'll lead from wire to wire. Hope I'm wrong. But I doubt it.

    If she were to pick someone like Hickenlooper for veep, and handcuff the Millennial special snowflake potsmoker vote, you can put her name on the door now. But I doubt she'll even need to stretch that hard.
     
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    T.Lex

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    After Hillary gets her Convention Bump, she'll lead from wire to wire. Hope I'm wrong. But I doubt it.
    Lead the national polls? Probably.

    But the electoral map will be much harder to judge. If the polling companies want to maintain any credibility, they'll use [strike]padding[/strike] proprietary algorithms to keep the polls within the MOE. The only poll that will count will be on election day (and of course when the electoral college meets).
     

    Leadeye

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    Can't see hilly or trump picking a vp with any shine at all, they are both people who want to be alone in the spotlight. It will boil down to a negative only campaign as there really isn't much positive to say about either of them. Since 2A is a political litmus test for me, I'll be voting for trump.
     

    Twangbanger

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    Can't see hilly or trump picking a vp with any shine at all, they are both people who want to be alone in the spotlight. It will boil down to a negative only campaign as there really isn't much positive to say about either of them. Since 2A is a political litmus test for me, I'll be voting for trump.

    I agree, she wouldn't necessarily want someone to outshine her. But if she goes with the vanilla Sherrod Brown, it would mean Kasich as Governor of Ohio would get to name his replacement to the US Senate. So I've begun to wonder if it wouldn't be more important for her to pick someone with her 2nd term in mind. I'm guessing, by 2020, people are going to be even more sick of her than they are now. If she's already in trouble with Millennial Snowflakes, think how un-excited they'll be after 4 more years of no good entry-level jobs for young people. She may fool them once, but how does she get any number of young voters excited for her a *second* time? The realistic prospect of a Dem. VP candidate who is open-minded about Marijuana, eventually moving up into the top slot, would give them a reason to dream. If such a candidate can be found, who doesn't cost Dems a precious Senate seat, it would seem to be a very good thing.



    Lead the national polls? Probably.

    But the electoral map will be much harder to judge...

    How do you figure? There are approx. 250 EV located in states that haven't been won by a Republican Prez candidate in a quarter-century. If I was a Vegas bookie making bets this far out, that's the meter I'd be making judgements by. The national polls would seem to be more of a "noise meter," and the EV the "steady needle" that hasn't changed direction much (and when it does make a big jump, it seems to be in the D-direction).
     
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    jamil

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    That map and its results would probably look a lot worse if you went strictly by populat vote though.

    There wouldn't be an electoral map. Winning states would no longer matter. If there were anything close to that it would be more like a heat map. You'd see a sea of red with large Islands of blue where the large metropoleis are.

    Those solid blue states could become more red if Republicans ever bothered to campaign there. More Right leaning people might bother to vote in states like California and New York if they knew their vote would count for something.
     

    GodFearinGunTotin

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    There wouldn't be an electoral map. Winning states would no longer matter. If there were anything close to that it would be more like a heat map. You'd see a sea of red with large Islands of blue where the large metropoleis are.

    Those solid blue states could become more red if Republicans ever bothered to campaign there. More Right leaning people might bother to vote in states like California and New York if they knew their vote would count for something.

    Maybe. On the other hand, I'm not so sure we need to be removing even more power from the states. The people get the government they want.
     
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