The Rule of Threes as applied to ammunition

[lester]

“I wish to be prepared for hard times so how much ammunition should I store?” This is a common question.

The short answer is, “all of it”; but the real answer is that there are limitations to what most can afford. I answer such a question by asking myself, “What affect does buying ammunition have on the other preparations I need to buy?” It is easy (and fun) to buy, buy, buy more ammo. However, once a standard amount is on hand, every extra round of ammunition is purchased with preparedness dollars that could be allocated to other valuable and expensive kits, sets, and outfits. We are preparedness folks, not ninjas -- we should plan our ammo the same way we plan our water. What do we need, why do we need it, and how much is enough? All the ammo in the world isn't going to feed your family. As I have done with all of my preps (and surely most of you here have as well), I apply the rule of three to everything, including ammunition.

1. How much Ammo do I need to live three seconds? The answer is one magazine -- no more, no less. If it ain't gettin' done with that in three seconds, it ain't gettin' done. I don't stock any more ammo than that until I have all of the air, food, water, and shelter I need for three seconds. For myself AND my family.

2. How much ammo do I need to live three minutes? The answer is probably a couple of mags that could, at the worst case, in three minutes, allow me to remove myself from trouble. Maybe three spare magazines for my rifle and a pair of spare magazine for my pistol. I don't stock anymore than that until I have all the air, food, water, and shelter I need for three minutes. For myself AND my family.

3. How much ammo do I need to live three hours? I think the answer here is probably enough to outfit a standard basic load -- just enough loaded magazines that can be comfortably carried on the body. This means that I add another two hundred rounds to what I have already stockpiled for my rifle and a couple dozen for my pistol. I don't stock any more than that until I have all of the air, food, water, and shelter I need for three hours. For myself AND my family.

4. How much ammo do I need to live three days? I think the answer here is that I should plan on being able to refill my basic load at least once. We aren't combat soldiers, so we aren't looking for trouble -- we just need enough (at the three day mark) to top-off our spent magazines. Prudent preparation for unknown future calamity deems another couple hundred rounds for my rifle and another couple dozen rounds for my pistol to be appropriate. I don't stock any more than that until I have all of the air, food, water, and shelter I need for three days. For myself AND my family.

5. How much ammo do I need to live three weeks? Apply the same logic here as applied to the previous milestones with the emphasis on 'what do I need'? Again, since we aren't combat soldiers, we aren't fighting everyday for that period of time. It seems logical to assume that we may find ourselves in at least one more fight, so to prepare for such an event, stockpiling an additional basic load seems appropriate -- a couple hundred more rounds for my rifle and a couple dozen more rounds for my pistol. I don't stock any more than that until I have all of the air, food, water, and shelter I need for three weeks. For myself AND my family.

6. How much ammo do I need to live three months? Continuing in the same manner, after three months, there isn't likely to be continuous fighting. If there is, we are no longer preparedness folks, we are soldiers and different logistics issues come into play. For preparedness, stocking our own in advance in order to safely navigate ourselves and our families through unforeseen dramas and hardships, it would not be unwise to have a spare case of ammunition, over and above what has already been stockpiled for the previous milestones. At this stage, one should not only be stocking an additional thousand rounds for your rifle; but should be thinking at least about a spare rifle of the same caliber for back-up (please note, that I specifically waited until this milestone to bring into the discussion an additional rifle). It is fun to buy guns, but now is when they become necessary redundancy – before this milestone, money spent on more guns without a stockpile of food and water to make it this far is not preparedness, it is gun collecting. I don't stock any more than that until I have all of the air, food, water, and shelter I need for three months. For myself AND my family.

7. How much ammo do I need to live for a year or more? This is the point at which, for me, the rule of threes ends and a homestead lifestyle takes its place. At this level of societal disruption, it is not realistic to stockpile enough ammunition to live for three years. It is realistic, at this point in the preparation plan, to stockpile the equipment, skills, and raw materials to make ammunition. Don't stock cartridges, stock thousands of bullets, casings, powder, and reloading equipment to allow yourself to survive an indefinite period. Stock spare parts for rifles that will not be readily available. Prepare at this unprecedented level to never be able to go to a 'gun store' again.

 

[Cozy439]

Very astute way to plan and prepare. Great mindset for allocation of limited resources. If I knew how to give u a REP or thumbs up or what ever its called I would!!! ( I need to figure this site out a little better)

 

[churchmouse]

Some good thoughts here.
Factor in where you live and who lives around you. What would you be defending in a bad situation. How would you have to defend it. Yes, you would have to defend against those who would take your preps to survive if things got that bad and pray they do not.
We keep enough on hand to continue training and have a good reserve. As my kids (all mid-20's and up) are raising family's and struggling in the big "O" economy I am the one feeding their guns. That is (3) AR's, a Socom 16, several .45 ACP's, 12 gauge and some .22's. How much ammo is that?? a lot but I am happy to do it. The family that shoots together....survives.

 

[K_W]

Rep is the scales at the bottom left of his post.

That said... Repped!

 

[Justin Case]

Rep from me as well. Great post!

 

[shibumiseeker]

Nicely done.

 

[Kmcinnes]

Nice way of looking at things!

 

[Kedric]

Excellent post and some very good points. Very similar to my own thought process in this area.

 

[lester]

Thanks. What I have struggled with, as a vet and a 'gun guy' is understanding where my limitations are with my resources. I don't believe I am alone in that so I wrote down some of my processes.

I use strategies like this to remind myself of the difference between needs and wants. I want another Glock 19, but I need another case of MREs. Plan in increments of time and expand equally, across all of the sectors; food, water, shelter, and defense. The rule of threes helps us do that in many different ways.

I would hate to show up to a gunfight with a wheat grinder, but equally as devastating to my family would be for me to show up at a famine with a back-up gun but no breakfast.

 

[churchmouse]

Thanks. What I have struggled with, as a vet and a 'gun guy' is understanding where my limitations are with my resources. I don't believe I am alone in that so I wrote down some of my processes.

I use strategies like this to remind myself of the difference between needs and wants. I want another Glock 19, but I need another case of MREs. Plan in increments of time and expand equally, across all of the sectors; food, water, shelter, and defense. The rule of threes helps us do that in many different ways.

I would hate to show up to a gunfight with a wheat grinder, but equally as devastating to my family would be for me to show up at a famine with a back-up gun but no breakfast.

You bring the grinder and your skills and we have your back.

All good points.

 

[Meister]

The rules will change as the situation does. If you prepare for a cessation of hostilities after 3 months and many preparedness experts speak to, that is your peak level of preparedness. What is the "planned" catastrophe is bigger, or after a primary insurrection, there is an occupation force or mobile militia to fend off. I say be flexible.

Have a good stock of battle ready ammo and for homesteading, stock up 22lr ammo.You can take down anything in our area with a well placed 22lr round. It's dirt cheap and stores small. Reloaded ammo isn't weatherproof, so I don't keep much back for long term storage. I prefer to keep ammo cans of factory ammo for that. Right when ammo started getting crazy, the gun shop owner told me prices were going up next week. I bought him out of Hansen (IMI) 9mm ammo on the spot at 5.50 a box. One of the better purchases I made. Now I have a goodly supply of factory sealed 9mm and I no longer need to consider it in my plan. I shoot the reloads I make, rinse and repeat. Train with the home brew, put back the good stuff. ss109 is my favorite to put back.

I've been purchasing 500 rounds of 22lr every week for 19.50 a brick. Hard to beat the price per shot, and it's as good as gold if the defecation meets the oscillation. Food stores are expanding nicely as well.

 

[cosermann]

I like the idea of applying the rule of three analogy to this, although each of us may end up with different numbers depending on our assumptions.

If I did the math correctly, assuming 30 rnd rifle mags and 15 rnd pistol mags, the OP suggestion works out to about (if I interpreted it completely/correctly):

1. 3 seconds – 30 rnds rifle, 15 rounds pistol (1 mag for each).
2. 3 minutes – 120 rnds rifle, 45 rounds pistol (4 rifle mags, 3 pistol mags).
3. 3 hours – 320 rnds rifle (120+200), 69 rounds pistol (45+24).
4. 3 days – 520 rnds rifle (320+200), 93 rounds pistol (69+24).
5. 3 weeks – 720 rnds rifle (520+200), 117 rounds pistol (93+24)
6. 3 months – 1,720 rnds rifle (720+1k), 117 rnds pistol (nothing mentioned about this).

Is that about right?

It seems to me there must be an assumption that “the fighting” is dying down between 3 days and 3 weeks, because at the 3 day mark the assumption is maybe 1 additional fight (+200/+24), but the assumption for the 3 week mark is also only 1 additional fight rather than an additional 6 (i.e. another fight every 3 days or so as assumed in previous stage).

Historically, for disasters bad enough to warrant this sort of thing, I don’t think we start to see resolution within 3 weeks, so I’d continue at the same assumed rate for 3 days and just extrapolate that out for 3 weeks. That would result in another 1,800 rounds rifle, and 144 rounds pistol given the OP model. Just an example of how different assumptions affect the numbers

I’m not arguing the numbers. Just thought getting some numbers in the post might help make things more concrete to some folks.

 

[gungirl65]

Good post OP. Good way of thinking of things. Thanks for putting it to numbers Cosermann that helps too.

 

[Icarry2]

 

[XDLover]

There is no such thing as to much ammo. EVER

 

[Meister]

There is no such thing as to much ammo. EVER

I've gotta disagree. Rucking a days worth of ammo up a mile long incline while Pdog hunting can lead to thinking you have too much ammo.

 

[churchmouse]

I've gotta disagree. Rucking a days worth of ammo up a mile long incline while Pdog hunting can lead to thinking you have too much ammo.

There is this^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I have been looking at my supply's from all angles....bug out, stay put, long/short term scenarios etc. We have decided that spray and pray is not the way to go...LOL
Hit what you are shooting at in the first 2 rds. fired and save your supply's.
Continue to train. use your guns.

 

[Justin Case]

There is no such thing as to much ammo. EVER

I agree in a bug-in scenario, which is our primary plan. But, if we have to bug-out on foot, there is no way we could carry all of our ammo. This means we would be leaving a substantial cache at home. I would hate to leave it for someone else, but I would also hate to destroy it as well (if there was time to do so).

 

[lester]

There is no such thing as to much ammo. EVER

I tend to agree, but in the context of this thread, there is too much ammo if you are without clean water or food stores. You cannot spend spend spend on ammo until you reach specific milestones in regards to your other preps. That is why this point-of-view has been so helpful to me. By using the rule of threes, I have a process for where my resources are allocated. I don't add to my ammo stores until I have enough water, food, tools, shelter, etc. for the next level.

 

[cosermann]

It all depends on your assumptions.