How to fix the ammo "shortage."

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  • Hohn

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    It's simple, really.

    Prices are FAR too low.

    Retailers need to crank up the price until the rate at which ammo goes out the door gets closer to normal.


    Retailers that crank up the price do a couple beneficial things:
    1. Undercut the scalpers. The scalpers exist because the huge gap between what people are willing to pay and what they can buy it for at the big box store. If WMT and Gander has the "armslist" price on the shelf, the scalpers go away and the shortage disappears.
    2. Increase the cash going to ammo companies. This can increase capacity and stimulate more production to the market
    3. Increase the cash going to others in the supply chain-- producers of raw brass, forming dies, production equipment, etc. More production is stimulated


    The bottom line, economically, is simple: shortages are the result of interference with the price system. If we let prices do what they are supposed to do-- communicate market information and thus balance supply with demand-- then the problem largely resolves itself.

    ATK, Remington, Black Hills et al are obviously selling their ammo too cheap to the big box stores. The big box stores can then sell it too cheaply on the shelf.

    If ANYONE in the supply chain would do the right thing and raise prices to what they SHOULD be as a result of the spike in demand, then this problem would resolve itself much more quickly.



    I've been looking for some .40cal HST defense loads. I finally found some at Gander for $33/20! I left empty handed because the price was too high for me.

    If you raise prices high enough, people en masse will similarly say 'that's too high' and leave the ammo on the shelf. Shortage resolved.

    When people see ammo STILL on the shelf, they realize the shortage is over and demand slackens. When demand slackens, the prices will drop back down.


    I'm frankly surprised that WMT and Gander are so clueless that they continue to let scalpers claim their profit.


    If I am in business leadership responsible for selling Ammo at WMT or Gander, I'm firing the moron that's keeping prices so low we can't keep any inventory in.WMT and Gander like to think they are helping customers by keeping prices low. But they aren't. They are hurting customers by prolonging the "shortage" and hurting themselves by letting scalpers claim profit that they could just as easily claim. This is mostly the result of setting prices at the corporate headquarters (where they aren't was informed about the local market). Let your local store/department managers set ammo pricing, raising the certain items by $5 or $10/box until they can go more than a couple days before selling out. Then you will have far fewer people buying up ammo in GA and reselling to CO over the internet because of the vastly different market prices in two locales, for example.

    I wouldn't charge the same for bottled water in the Sahara as I would in Colorado, so why not let ammo prices reflect local demand?

    The "Right' price is the one that keep ammo on the shelf until the next truck shows up. Ideally, that last box would sell as the truck pulls up. But when you sell out in 20min what takes a week to deliver, you've OBVIOUSLY got prices WAY too low.

    Yes, it's a short term inconvenience and an annoyance to have astronomical ammo prices. But it's best to deal with some short term pain and let it pass than it is to prolong the agony forever and ever by defeating the effective work of the price system.

    H
     
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    Rob377

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    I...

    WMT and Gander like to think they are helping customers by keeping prices low. But they aren't. They are hurting customers by prolonging the "shortage" and hurting themselves by letting scalpers claim profit that they could just as easily claim.

    ...
    H


    How'd that work out for places like CheaperThanDirt?

    People get pissed when they know they're being scalped and tend to hold grudges. Trying to screw your customer base out of every last penny isn't a great formula for building consumer loyalty. You can shear a sheep many times, you can only skin them once. Goose that laid golden eggs, and so on. This isn't a new lesson. People have realized it for literally millenia.

    As far as the mfers go, unless they decide to illegally collude to fix prices, there's the whole competition thing that disincentives jacking up prices to scalper level.

    Scalping works for scalpers because they don't need to worry about repeat business. Established retailers do.

    Get too greedy and everyone buys a LnL or 650 press. High volume shooters already do, and further price increases would simply increase the number of people that find rolling their own worthwhile. And since I can make it for half the price of 'normal' cost, and probably 1/4 or less of scalper cost, now it's becoming viable to upgrade to a 1050 and get myself a type 6 license, undercut everyone and still keep a nice little margin.

    Surprise, business is more complicated than a semester of Econ 101. But I suppose if that's the only hammer you've got, everything looks like a nail.
     

    Hohn

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    OK, then tell me why gas stations crank up prices and then let them drop.

    Have you ever NOT gone to a gas station because they once had high prices?
     

    ziggy

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    Sorry Rob, I'm with Hohn on this one. I do not want to pay more, but I do want a supply that is in balance with demand. I know of a local store that charges fairly stiff prices and and had a reasonable supply on the shelves last time I was there. Higher prices will lower demand and then once more supply hits the market prices will come down.
     

    Hohn

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    Get too greedy and everyone buys a LnL or 650 press. High volume shooters already do, and further price increases would simply increase the number of people that find rolling their own worthwhile. And since I can make it for half the price of 'normal' cost, and probably 1/4 or less of scalper cost, now it's becoming viable to upgrade to a 1050 and get myself a type 6 license, undercut everyone and still keep a nice little margin.

    Surprise, business is more complicated than a semester of Econ 101. But I suppose if that's the only hammer you've got, everything looks like a nail.

    Exactly. You realize this argues against your main point, right?

    Time isn't free. If someone wants to spend the bench time on the 650 rolling their own, it's because they've decided the benefits outweigh the costs.

    The high prices cannot be sustained. So the problem is solved instead of prolonged.


    So tell me why you have NOT gotten your Type 6 and undercut everyone?
     

    Rob377

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    Why would ammo companies risk all of the above, and take on all kinds of fixed costs to meet demand that isn't going to continue?

    Panic buying isn't consistent demand. When the panic dies, they don't want to be sitting on millions of dollars of machines and tooling that is going to sit idle when people finally figure out ammo isn't going to get banned. (or if it is banned, it'll sit idel because no is allowed to buy it anymore)
     

    HoughMade

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    ....or people could stop buying panic buying every box of ammo they can find.

    We're doing this to ourselves.

    I know people who are buying every box of ammo they can find on the shelves and online. Nevermind that before the panic, they bought and used maybe 100 rounds a month. Now they are buying 10 boxes (500 rounds) every time they can find it.
     

    Hohn

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    Why would ammo companies risk all of the above, and take on all kinds of fixed costs to meet demand that isn't going to continue?

    Panic buying isn't consistent demand. When the panic dies, they don't want to be sitting on millions of dollars of machines and tooling that is going to sit idle when people finally figure out ammo isn't going to get banned. (or if it is banned, it'll sit idle because no is allowed to buy it anymore)

    All true, but a rise in price doesn't have to translate into extra capital expenditures to help the situation.

    The immediate shortage is cause by the low price that won't let supply catch up to demand.

    If you aren't old enough to remember the gas lines of the 1970s, you may wish to consider why there were long lines and rationing then, but not in 2008 when oil hit $145/bbl.

    The difference? Price controls. In 2008, the prices were allowed to rise to meet demand and the market.

    Pricing errors that mess up the market don't have to come from governmental controls. They can just as easily come from businesses that don't raise prices when the market is clearly communicating the need for such.


    And since when is in empty slot where an $18 box of ammo used to be preferable to a box on the shelf at $25?
     
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    Hohn

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    ....or people could stop buying panic buying every box of ammo they can find.

    We're doing this to ourselves.

    I know people who are buying every box of ammo they can find on the shelves and online. Nevermind that before the panic, they bought and used maybe 100 rounds a month. Now they are buying 10 boxes (500 rounds) every time they can find it.

    If prices were cranked up, this would go away or greatly diminish.
     

    Rob377

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    All true, but a rise in price doesn't have to translate into extra capital expenditures to help the situation.

    So you're backing off point#2?
    Increase the cash going to ammo companies. This can increase capacity and stimulate more production to the market

    The immediate shortage is cause by the low price that won't let supply catch up to demand.

    If you aren't old enough to remember the gas lines of the 1970s, you may wish to consider why there were long lines and rationing then, but not in 1008 when oil hit $145/bbl.

    The difference? Price controls. In 2008, the prices were allowed to rise to meet demand and the market.

    Pricing errors that mess up the market don't have to come from governmental controls. They can just as easily come from businesses that don't raise prices when the market is clearly communicating the need for such.


    And since when is in empty slot where an $18 box of ammo used to be preferable to a box on the shelf at $25?


    When that empty slot means the customers will come back over and over to gladly pay $18/box again and again after the panic dies. When that $100 box sits on the shelf and prompts every non-panicked, sensible customer to say "F these guys, I'm ordering a Dillon, posting on INGO what douches they are, and never coming back," it's bad long term business.
     

    Engalwood

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    So you're backing off point#2?





    When that empty slot means the customers will come back over and over to gladly pay $18/box again and again after the panic dies. When that $100 box sits on the shelf and prompts every non-panicked, sensible customer to say "F these guys, I'm ordering a Dillon, posting on INGO what douches they are, and never coming back," it's bad long term business.


    We don't say this about gas which moves to meet demands? I'm with Hohn. I wouldn't mind the increase at stores(which it is coming very soon but I don't think it will be enough, supposed to be a 18% increase to all major distribtiors) if we see the high prices at the Wally's and ganders everyone would stop buying! Simple. People are not going to stop going there just bc of that. If they do they will more then likley come back when prices fall back down. Just my 2centz
    :popcorn:
     

    Rob377

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    We don't say this about gas which moves to meet demands? I'm with Hohn. I wouldn't mind the increase at stores(which it is coming very soon but I don't think it will be enough, supposed to be a 18% increase to all major distribtiors) if we see the high prices at the Wally's and ganders everyone would stop buying! Simple. People are not going to stop going there just bc of that. If they do they will more then likley come back when prices fall back down. Just my 2centz
    :popcorn:

    Because gas price changes are driven by raw material price changes with thin margins and inventory replacement costs. Gas is also a commodity with relatively inelastic demand and little or no substitute goods. People have to buy gas to get to work, to deliver goods, and so on.

    Ammo price changes here are driven by irrational people freaking out and buying every box they find. Demand is extremely elastic because don't need ammo to get to work, and when factory stuff gets too expensive, people can stop shooting as much, start rolling their own, and so on.
     

    Sgtusmc

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    Seems like a good plan...if everyone in the chain of commerce does the right thing.

    Retail outlet raises prices, fewer sales are made, retail outlet keeps all profit to keep going, ammo makers dont see a return so to them demand is low or normal. Retail outlets, just like the scalpers, hold back on the supply to create demand and justification for their prices.

    Not saying thats exactly how its working everywhere, but it's possible it's happening.
     

    O'Shark

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    I can see how raising prices could work to curb panic buying as you suggest. The problem with that is that the shooting community has grown much larger (if not exponentially) since 2008. The rate of firearm sales is incredible in itself. Online retailers are out of more SKUs than they have items in stock.

    Just like you are waiting on the price of your ammo to come down, hundreds of thousands of other shooters will wait too. Pricing shooters out of the ammo market gives shooters time to save up $$ and pay down their credit cards. The first major retailer that offers a discount will ignite the frenzy all over again. The other retailers will follow suit, opting to capitalize on volume instead of margin. The full shelves of what was overpriced ammo will be empty once again.

    The new gun owners want to shoot! There are people with new guns who cannot find ammo with which to shoot. It almost appears as if ammo companies got caught flat-footed by choosing to ignore firearm sales trends and now they can't possibly catch up.

    I don't think that raising prices in itself will cure the problem without a significant increase in production capacity.
     

    Bapak2ja

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    I hate it when people who know what they are doing and what they are talking about explain things in ways that I understand but will eventually take more money out of my pocket. I can think of a lot of names I would like to use on you, but I would just end up eating crow later on.

    It seems to me this strategy has already been implemented in terms of AR-15s, AKs, etc. Prices for those weapons have increased and a few are available in LGSs occasionally. I have not heard of anyone buying those and flipping them on Armslist.

    What you say makes sense, but I wish you would be quiet about it. If the prices do go up, I will not be able to buy any ammo at all. As it is, I can still get some at reasonable prices occasionally.
     

    jcwit

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    OK, then tell me why gas stations crank up prices and then let them drop.

    Have you ever NOT gone to a gas station because they once had high prices?

    Sure have, and sure do. I check Gas Buddy at least daily and usually plan my gas purchases by the price and when I get into the larger city, if Gas Buddy tells me their price is less that in my small town.

    Case in point, I have a meeting in Elkhart tonite, gas in Elkhart is currently less than in my home town, I will more than likely buy some if not fill up.

    And yes there are stations that I do not patronize because of past pricing and/or politics, Hugo Cheveze oil company being one.
     

    remauto1187

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    Wow, I thought this thread was a joke , apparently not . You do realize how much the price of ammo has gone up in the past ten year's already .:dunno:

    Exactly. First it was brass/components used as an excuse to raise ammo prices and now its "shortages". If you continue to pay the price they ask for, it will never come down. People will get accustomed to the price gouging and the prices will stay where there are or very close to the price gouging level. Gasoline is a prime example of that.

    In central IL 87 octane was 89.9cents per gallon in 1989. Gasoline has quadrupled+ since then.
     

    Hohn

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    So you're backing off point#2?





    When that empty slot means the customers will come back over and over to gladly pay $18/box again and again after the panic dies. When that $100 box sits on the shelf and prompts every non-panicked, sensible customer to say "F these guys, I'm ordering a Dillon, posting on INGO what douches they are, and never coming back," it's bad long term business.

    No. There's a reason I said CAN induce more supply. Not "will."

    Suppliers have to make their own calculations about the cost of additional capacity and the breakeven points for that.


    You're mistaken about them coming back over and over. How many times will you return to the same retailer that ALWAYS has an empty shelf??

    Those who bash retailers who run higher prices do so from a sense of entitlement to cheap ammo, mostly because they remember the good old days.

    Wake up, shooters. Those days are gone forever. The weakening dollar and the huge increase in the number of gun owners/shooters all but assures will never have "cheap' ammo again.

    But it CAN be cheaper if we'd let prices do their thing to correct this anomalous condition in the market.

    JH
     

    Hohn

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    Sure have, and sure do. I check Gas Buddy at least daily and usually plan my gas purchases by the price and when I get into the larger city, if Gas Buddy tells me their price is less that in my small town.

    Case in point, I have a meeting in Elkhart tonite, gas in Elkhart is currently less than in my home town, I will more than likely buy some if not fill up.

    And yes there are stations that I do not patronize because of past pricing and/or politics, Hugo Cheveze oil company being one.

    The question was not if you try to get the best price-- the question is whether you will pay MORE to NOT buy from a particular station that ONCE had a high price..

    What if your GasBuddy tells you that the best price in 50miles is that place that "gouged" you three weeks ago?
     
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