In areas with high vaccination rates....of course the case load is vaccinated people. They are virtually the only ones there.
Theoretically, with a population of 1,000 people and 90% vaccination, the infection rate of unvaccinated (100 total) could be 50%, and there would only be 50 infected. However, of the 900 vaccinated, the infection rate could be 6% and there would be 54 people infected...more than the unvaccinated.
At a 70% vaccination rate, if the infection rate of the 300 unvaccinated were 20%, 60 people would be infected. However, of the 700 vaccinated, if the infection rate were 9%, then there would still be more vaccinated people who got it than unvaccinated. This would have a tendency to show the vaccination was effective in some measure because the infection rate was much lower even though the total number of people was higher.
Therefore, saying that more vaccinated people are infected than unvaccinated doesn't tell us anything about the effectiveness of vaccination without knowing the vaccination rates, at least...and to be really accurate, a lot more demographic information about those who were infected. I don't know what the real numbers are and don't make any conclusions, but I am simply pointing out that "more people who are vaccinated got it" doesn't tell us anything in and of itself.
As more information rolls in, we will learn more.
Of course, the tougher thing to calculate is severity of an infection across people with the same health at baseline, vaccinated versus not.
(saw your post in the truck thread).
